http://artofmanliness.com/

Link to market message by Arthur Hill.

http://stockcharts.com/members/videos/20110819-1/

If your a member of www.stockcharts.combe sure to check out Friday's market message video by Arthur Hill. He discusses the characteristics that exist for market tops using the 2000, 2007-2008 and most recent top as examples. It includes recovery attempts and failure points. It's classic technical stuff.

Maybe the best thing to do is use the SPY Swing System for a trend suggestion and your own quicker swing trade setup, perhaps an hourly chart or 15 min chart,  for entry or exit suggestion. Make sure you are looking at trend, momentum using an oscillator and volume trend.

Or just wait it out. The large five day move up helped the end of month, end of quarter figures for the smart money. But the five days starting 7-1 has been more or less a consolidation period. 

JOHN

Tom, last two times I moved accounts it tooks about 8 weeks. Last was from Merrill Lynch to Vanguard. It took 8 or 9 weeks, money was in cash sitting in the ML bank. I was not a happy camper.

Matt, very nice presentation. Appreciate the hard work involved in doing this. A system like, reversion to mean, is good higher probability trade but at times the entry is when there is still a decline and the sell point may not achieve the full profit potential. But that is the nature of the beast and since it's high probability the compounded gains over time is what you seek.

I favor keeping the scale out concept just as a optional idea for those traders who prefer that. Do not make it a formal part of the system. You make an excellent point that the scale out feature may be a good way to go if you are using a leveraged ETF like SSO instead of SPY for the trade. That would add to safety and recognize the additional risk taken on when using leverage.

JOHN

Matt, today was hectic at the close round the 134.80 level for SPY. I sold during after hours trading and did not take a loss. So no harm done.

The renko setting is pts using 1% of the GDX price. So it can change from time to time. I use the close field. I've done some limited backtesting and it seems to give nice suggestions. Since this is not a fully tested system as Matt suggests use it just as a guideline along with your own technical indicators suggestions.

Here is some data on SPY average volume.

http://www.tradingnewsbulletin.com/2011/04/259/

S&P issued a negative debt outlook for the U.S.A. They have re-affirmed the triple A rating however for now.

Merrill Lynch RIC report.

http://www.totalmerrill.com/publish/mkt/client/NewsAndViews/pdfs/TailsoftheunexpectedpartII.pdf

Trader John

Matt, nice job with the new dividend section. I like the way you set it up. Very hepful information to have.  The best site for technical traders got even better.

John

Matt, bands coming together. Looks like negative divergence on RSI and MACD. If I'm reading this correctly, does that mean that the short-term move is more likely to be down?

May have found support at last gap up area on 15 minute chart about 14.28. But a tough market today, some profit taking.

I was with Mike Swanson for one year starting late in 2008. Back then he was buying the airline sector. He eventually got stopped out on those trades. When the airline sector did take off over past 9 months or so he did not even mention this sector as a trade. Even worse when the March 2009 bottom came, he did not trade the trend up and kept trying to short it. It was not until July 2009 when the primary trend officially reversed that he started trading long. His stock picks were given to members after he was in so he got the benefit of the buying of members and he was poor at timing the message on selling.

BPT, is way ahead of Swanson's site. They stay with the members on trades and thoughout the trading day.

Welcome to BPT. I'm a newer member as well but have been following Steve and Matt's suggestions via their free stuff for some time. Keeping it simple is the lesson as you have learned. Only price pays, the rest is window dressing.

Good luck!