Matt--Thanks for your and Steve's continued work. Unfortunately
I am making this post because I take issue with your display of the
SRS #2 swing system this evening on the newsletter. You
mention how many 100% gain months the SRS system had in its 2 +
year history. The only problem with this of course is that
this system was just sent out by you a few months ago. There
is a term I am sure you are familiar with which is known as
"curvefitting". (For those of you who do not know the term, I
would STRONGLY SUGGEST picking up a copy of The Evolution and
Optimization of Trading Strategies by Robert Pardo before trading
any mech systems created through optimization). It
does not take a rocket scientist to have a computer optimize a
system with data going back two years that have massive
gains. To a novice, this may seem like they finally
found the pot of gold under the illusive rainbow--which is
certainly not the case most of the time. I certainly am not
trying to get anyone upset with me, however to make the insinuation
to 2 week trial members that all of us on this site
trading mech systems experienced these huge HYPOTHETICAL types
of gains over the last 1 + years is simply not accurate
imo. I feel as though new members should understand how
hypothetical/optimized systems can work in the future.
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 1st of Dec 2009 at 12:14 am
According to zerohedge, they are going to announce QE sometime
tomorrow morning. I think we now will finally may
begin the race to the bottom of all world
currencies.
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 4th of Nov 2009 at 09:13 am
I have used both, and the only one I would tell you to use after
my experience is IB, hands down. The fills you will get on
market orders (which you will obviously use on most mech systems)
are very solid, and unlike TS you will not have trouble shorting
shares. I would suggest Ninja for your auto/order
routing. If you do not know how to program, there are many
3rd party companies who will do it for you. Good Luck.
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 3rd of Nov 2009 at 12:09 am
This is great IMO. One of the things I was discussing with
a fellow full time trader of these systems today is when the MA's
have large whitespace between them on the actual chart we get
losing trades. This white space I describe is exactly the
same as what you are talking about...significant spread betweem the
actual price and the MA. I believe a mean reversion
program could do well on SRS in this current environment.
Thanks for the insight, will try to post other ideas tomorrow.
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 2nd of Nov 2009 at 10:06 pm
Michael--Totally agree. I had a good October with the
systems, but lost over 14% today. I would have certainly
taken only 18% net in October if it meant I didn't lose almost
$15K today! However I do understand it will mean the 1st
time I try it with a 3% SL, it will trade down to $.01 past my
stop, then rally back up 20%! I will have to look at the
optimization in Ninja using different SL. Thanks!
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:11 pm
I am trading $50K in both SRS #1 and #2 in two different IB
accounts, so this is not out of the norm for me. Just making
the point of the committment to the Mech systems even though the
last 2-3 bars were BRUTAL this afternoon. Have a good
weekend! Yes, I am aware of what the MACD looks like, but
when you are trading a system, you must take the good with the
bad. At least I will have a good reason to drink a lot of RUM
this weekend! Good luck to all!
I am using Esignal and IB for data and IB for trading. Please
let me know which trade above is not accurate. I am not
complaining, I have made A LOT of money on these systems over the
last year. Just making a comment on how 6 losers in a row
does get you a little on edge and makes your mind start
thinking...Thanks!
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 26th of Oct 2009 at 12:54 pm
Just a comment to any new traders to the Mechanical
Systems. If you are wondering why you are not feeling
"unemotional" about losing a lot of $$ on the last 6 trades, try
what I do now. I place a morphine drip in my arm each
morning, and it seems to help a lot! (LOL)
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
I found the John Williams
I'm usually the more bullish one here but
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 15th of Dec 2009 at 10:37 am
I found the John Williams (Shawdowstats) info on ZH this am, also very compelling. It's a must read.
Matt--Great video! Thanks for your
Quick Market Video
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 13th of Dec 2009 at 09:38 pm
Matt--Great video! Thanks for your continued efforts in educating all of of us.
The "real" state of unemployment.
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 9th of Dec 2009 at 09:17 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulu3SCAmeBA
Enjoy!
Swing systems
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 7th of Dec 2009 at 08:20 pm
Trending indicator
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 2nd of Dec 2009 at 12:34 pm
Anyone have a good indicator that is reliable for indicating days in which the market should trend vs. being range bound?
Thanks in advance.
Mechanical Systems
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 2nd of Dec 2009 at 12:48 am
Matt--Thanks for your and Steve's continued work. Unfortunately I am making this post because I take issue with your display of the SRS #2 swing system this evening on the newsletter. You mention how many 100% gain months the SRS system had in its 2 + year history. The only problem with this of course is that this system was just sent out by you a few months ago. There is a term I am sure you are familiar with which is known as "curvefitting". (For those of you who do not know the term, I would STRONGLY SUGGEST picking up a copy of The Evolution and Optimization of Trading Strategies by Robert Pardo before trading any mech systems created through optimization). It does not take a rocket scientist to have a computer optimize a system with data going back two years that have massive gains. To a novice, this may seem like they finally found the pot of gold under the illusive rainbow--which is certainly not the case most of the time. I certainly am not trying to get anyone upset with me, however to make the insinuation to 2 week trial members that all of us on this site trading mech systems experienced these huge HYPOTHETICAL types of gains over the last 1 + years is simply not accurate imo. I feel as though new members should understand how hypothetical/optimized systems can work in the future.
According to zerohedge, they are
Heads Up
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 1st of Dec 2009 at 12:14 am
According to zerohedge, they are going to announce QE sometime tomorrow morning. I think we now will finally may begin the race to the bottom of all world currencies.
This is one BIG reason
California dreaming!
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 5th of Nov 2009 at 07:51 pm
This is one BIG reason I am glad I got the heck out of CA for good 3 years ago. Crazy, and going to get worse I am afraid.
I have used both, and
Trading Platform
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 4th of Nov 2009 at 09:13 am
I have used both, and the only one I would tell you to use after my experience is IB, hands down. The fills you will get on market orders (which you will obviously use on most mech systems) are very solid, and unlike TS you will not have trouble shorting shares. I would suggest Ninja for your auto/order routing. If you do not know how to program, there are many 3rd party companies who will do it for you. Good Luck.
no cross on the candle
SRS swing 2
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 3rd of Nov 2009 at 10:24 am
no cross on the candle ending at 7:15, however if it closes below 10.31 it appears we would have a trigger at 7:30 PST
it has crossed. if it
SRS swing 2
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 3rd of Nov 2009 at 10:08 am
it has crossed. if it remains crossed, you will go short at 7:15 PST.
This is great IMO. One
SRS Swing 2 mechanical system possible improvements
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 3rd of Nov 2009 at 12:09 am
This is great IMO. One of the things I was discussing with a fellow full time trader of these systems today is when the MA's have large whitespace between them on the actual chart we get losing trades. This white space I describe is exactly the same as what you are talking about...significant spread betweem the actual price and the MA. I believe a mean reversion program could do well on SRS in this current environment. Thanks for the insight, will try to post other ideas tomorrow.
Michael--Totally agree. I had a
SRS Swing Systems...HORRIFIC TODAY!
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 2nd of Nov 2009 at 10:06 pm
Michael--Totally agree. I had a good October with the systems, but lost over 14% today. I would have certainly taken only 18% net in October if it meant I didn't lose almost $15K today! However I do understand it will mean the 1st time I try it with a 3% SL, it will trade down to $.01 past my stop, then rally back up 20%! I will have to look at the optimization in Ninja using different SL. Thanks!
SRS Swing Systems...HORRIFIC TODAY!
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 2nd of Nov 2009 at 02:31 pm
I am trading $50K in
SRS
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:11 pm
I am trading $50K in both SRS #1 and #2 in two different IB accounts, so this is not out of the norm for me. Just making the point of the committment to the Mech systems even though the last 2-3 bars were BRUTAL this afternoon. Have a good weekend! Yes, I am aware of what the MACD looks like, but when you are trading a system, you must take the good with the bad. At least I will have a good reason to drink a lot of RUM this weekend! Good luck to all!
SRS
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 30th of Oct 2009 at 03:54 pm
Taking over 10,000 shares home Long for the weekend!
Conference call
BPT conference call?
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 30th of Oct 2009 at 10:20 am
That would be Great!
Not what I am showing
SRS #2 and The Morphine drip
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 26th of Oct 2009 at 01:12 pm
I have 6 losers dating back to last Tuesday.
#1 L @ 9.61 sold at 9.48 = loser
#2 S @ 9.48 covered at 9.80 = loser
#3 L @ 9.80 sold at 9.61 = loser
#4 S @ 9.61 covered at 9.65 = loser
#5 L @ 9.65 sold at 9.27 = loser
#6 S @ 9.27 covered at 9.57 = loser
I am using Esignal and IB for data and IB for trading. Please let me know which trade above is not accurate. I am not complaining, I have made A LOT of money on these systems over the last year. Just making a comment on how 6 losers in a row does get you a little on edge and makes your mind start thinking...Thanks!
SRS #2 and The Morphine drip
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 26th of Oct 2009 at 12:54 pm
Just a comment to any new traders to the Mechanical Systems. If you are wondering why you are not feeling "unemotional" about losing a lot of $$ on the last 6 trades, try what I do now. I place a morphine drip in my arm each morning, and it seems to help a lot! (LOL)
That makes me sick to
Posted by mitchellvisa1 on 15th of Oct 2009 at 03:19 pm
That makes me sick to my stomach for that boy. I cannot imagine this can possibly have a good ending.