Big Picture Weekly Updates - FIN-STRESS, HFRX-Index, ES-COT, TOS-PPS, etc.
I'm glad to be back from vacation, enough is enough.
 
New items:
 
- FIN-STRESS - financial conditions, holding up, no crash.
- HFRX-GL - proxy for the hedge fund universe, moving like a smoother version of SPX, in consolidation.
- ES-COT - ES and ED would suggest a short term correction.
- TOS-PPS - in buy mode, the monthly has turned up like in 1998 and 2004.
- technicals - strong and somewhat overbought.
 
- Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - in correction, but holding up.
 
In summary:
 
- long term trend  - up.
- short term trend - correction.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Big Picture Weekly Updates - CMI-GI, FED-ADS, HFRX-Index, FXI-Cycles, TOS-PPS, etc.
Projections insist a decline should be coming.
Technicals look strong, but have started to turn down.
 
New items:
 
- CMI-GI  - proxy for GDP, very negative.
- FED-ADS - business conditions, negative, but holding up, no crash.
- HFRX-GL - proxy for the hedge fund universe, moving like an MA of SPX, is positive. I look at it as a "trend sanity" check. No crash in sight. Data from http://www.hfrx.com.
- TOS-PPS - in cash, monthly could turn up, like in 1998 and 2004.
- SPX/TNX - another view of the now famous divergence.
 
- Pascal's Effective Volume - on the verge of issuing a SELL signal.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 
P.S. I will be on vacation for next few weeks, so I'll see you when I see you...
 

usually, I look at the weekly. it seems to diverge every now and then. and TNX seems to lead SPX at tops and bottoms. David Rosenberg has a recent comment (  http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/5851/Guru  ) - Stocks and Treasurys CANNOT both be right...

hope this helps...

Big Picture Weekly Updates - FED-ADS, CMI-GI, ES-COT, FIN-Stress, ISEE-Index, FXI-Cycles, TOS-PPS, etc.
Technicals keep saying STAY LONG, projections show divergences but still suggest a SELL.
 
New items:
- CMI-GI trying to make a bottom (projects GDP bottoming in Q1-2011).
- ES-COT reversed this week.
- The Financial Stress Index shows no signs of a crash.
- PPS monthly could turn up, like in 1998 and 2004.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Big Picture Weekly Updates - FED ADS, ES-COT, FXI Projection, TOS PPS, etc.
A little funny here - most technicals say STAY LONG, and most projections say GO SHORT.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Big Picture Weekly Updates - FED ADS, ES-COT, FXI Projection, TOS PPS, etc.
QE1 was easy to follow with the FED Spread.
Still looking for an indicator of QE2 activity.
Most of the models I follow are unchanged. Here are some.
 
Long term:
 
* The FED ADS Index is a model of the business conditions.
It has had a good correlation in the last 1-2 years, with a lead of 2-3 months.
As per this model, we may grind sideways/up and then down for a few weeks.
 
* ES COT Small Speculators, inverted - negative, sideways/down into the end of Oct.2010.
Then we would have a strong year-end rally.
A simple way to interpret the COT Reports is to look at the S&P-500 e-mini small speculators.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of a few weeks.
 
* The TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing), our conservative mechanical system, is on a "cash" signal.
When both monthly and weekly agree, go with them, long or short. When they don't, go to cash.
The monthly is still short. The weekly is long now.
 
Intermediate term:
 
* The FXI correlation - a good representation of the market cycles.
This model is mostly sideways/down for the next few weeks.

* The FED Financial Stress Index, inverted - a model of the financial conditions.
It has a good correlation, but is a concurrent indicator.
The financials had a setback, but no crash on the horizon.
 
Short term:
 
* a large number of technical indicators are bullish since 1-Sept. Here is a sample chart (SPY HA).
Some of them are showing overbought conditions.
 
* Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - on buy signal, but weakening. SDS volume - no rush to cover shorts.
 
* Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - low accumulation, and negative but increasing liquidity.
 
For now:
 
- the longer term models show the trend is down for the next few weeks/months.
- the intermediate term models term indicate the direction is sideways/down.
- the shorter term models suggest a consolidation is coming.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Big Picture Weekly Updates - NK225, CMI-GI, ES-COT, SSEC-FXI Projection, TOS PPS, etc.
Most of the models I follow are unchanged. Here are some.
 
Very long term:
 
* NK225 Model - no change, as per this model we would see some decline between mid 2010 and early 2013.
Nasdaq (blue line) and our projection Nikkei (yellow line) shifted forward 10 years, covering 1995-2020.
This could give us a broad view of the economic cycles.
For this projection, even multi-month divergences appear as minor.
 
Long term:
 
* CMI GI - no change, repeating the pattern of late 2007, early 2008, and declining for the next few months.
From http://www.consumerindexes.com- a collection of consumer sentiment, manually, daily.
This econometric model is actually a very good predictor of GDP.
It can be used as a substitute of GDP, for comparative studies.
 
* ES COT Smalls - negative, sideways/down into end of Nov.2010.
The COT Report is not easy to interpret - see a good discussion on http://cotstimer.blogspot.com.
A simple way is to look at the S&P-500 e-mini small speculators.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of a few weeks.
The data is normalized between -0.50 and + 0.50, and then inverted to make it comparable to the market.
Then it is shifted forward for the projection.
ES COT small speculators have been short for the last two reports, which would signal a nice year-end rally.
 
* The TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing), our conservative mechanical system, is on a "sell" signal.
When both monthly and weekly agree, go with them, long or short. When they don't, go to cash.
The monthly is short. The weekly is short. Still bearish.
To run this system yourself, you can open a free demo account with TOS - http://www.thinkorswim.com.
 
Intermediate term:
 
* The SSEC/FXI correlation (red line) is mostly sideways/down for the next few weeks.
The weekly projection appears to be more reliable.
 
Short term:
 
* a large number of technical indicators have turned bullish around 1-Sept. Here is a sample chart.
 
* Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - confirmed buy signal for a week. Inverse ETFs - confirming.
 
* Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - slight accumulation and negative but increasing liquidity.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the trend is down for the next few months.
- the intermediate term models term indicate the direction is sideways/down.
- the shorter term models suggest the movement is sideways/up.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 
 

Big Picture Weekly Updates - NK225, ANO, CMI GI, SSEC Weekly, etc.
 
NK225, ANO, CMI GI, SSEC Weekly - no change, down for the next few months.
FED ADS Index  - some sort of bounce into early September 2010.
FED Financial Stress Index - starting to rollover, but not crashing.
 
ES COT Smalls Speculators (normalized and inverted) - negative and down for the next few months.
 
KC24 trend confirmation model - bearish.
 
TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - short.
The monthly is short. The weekly is short. Bearish.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - possible buy signal. Inverse ETFs - not confirming yet.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - distribution and negative liquidity.
 
$BPNYA - correction. Has switched to a column of O's.
Changing the column from O's to X's or from X's to O's is a big deal.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down for the next few months.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is down.
- the shorter term models suggest a few weeks of sideways/up.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Updates - Big Picture, ANO, CMI GI, SSEC Weekly, etc.
 
Big Picture, ANO, CMI GI, SSEC Weekly - no change, down for the next few months.
FED ADS Index  - some sort of top in early September 2010.
FED Financial Stress Index - still bullish, but starting to rollover.
 
KC24 trend confirmation model - bearish.
 
TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - short.
The monthly is short. The weekly is short as of today. Bearish.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - distribution. Inverse ETFs - confirmation.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - distribution and negative liquidity.
 
$BPNYA - still bull. Decreasing to the point of switching to a column of O's.
Changing the column from O's to X's or from X's to O's is a big deal.
 
ES COT - small speculators still long since end of March 2010.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down for the next few months.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is down.
- the projection models suggest a few weeks of continuation down.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

Updating - Big Picture, ADS, ANO, CMI GI, Fin Stress Index, FED Spread, SSEC/FXI Leading, etc.
 
Big Picture, ANO, CMI GI, FED Spread - no change, down for the next few months.
 
Financial Stress Index, delayed confirmation - still bullish.
FED ADS Index, SSEC/FXI Leading - some sort of top in early September 2010.
 
KC24 trend confirmation model - bearish.
 
TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - in cash.
The monthly is short. The weekly is long. Bearish bias.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - some distribution. Inverse ETFs some confirmation.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - distribution and negative liquidity.
 
$BPNYA - still bull. Decreasing but not yet in a column of O's.
Changing the column from O's to X's or from X's to O's is a big deal.
 
ES COT - small speculators are long since end of March 2010.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down for the next few months.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is sideways/down.
- the projection models suggest a few weeks of continuation sideways/down.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

I am in Canada, I have my Canadian RSP, in USD, and allowed to buy calls/puts and covered calls, with OptionsXpress Canada, very good platform, interface and execution. TOS said they will open a Canadian branch within one year.

I tried Questrade, as they are Canadian, horrible platform and execution and atrocius interface for balance and activity. You never know how much money you have in USD or in CDN. If you have a USD account, you never know how much they charge per trade... Just terrible...

Good luck, Mike H.

Updates - Big Picture, ADS, ANO, CMI GI, Fin Stress, FED Spread, SSEC/FXI Leading, etc.
 
Big Picture, ANO, CMI GI - no change, down for the next few months.
FED Funds Spread - no change, no sign of QE2.
 
Financial Stress Index - bullish.
FED ADS Index, SSEC/FXI Leading - some sort of top in early September 2010.
 
KC24, our trend confirmation model - bullish bias.
 
TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - in cash.
The monthly is still short, could go long again soon. The weekly turned long. Bullish bias.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - strong accumulation. Inverse ETFs confirming.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - accumulation and positive liquidity.
 
$BPNYA - bull confirmed. Crossed 50% and going up.
Changing the column from O's to X's is a big deal.
 
ES COT - small speculators increasing long positions.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down for the next few months.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is sideways/up.
- the projection models suggest a few weeks of continuation sideways/up.
 
Good luck, Mike H.
 

on the TOS PPS charts, the moving averages are actually part of the PPS (Person Pivots System). I cannot tell for sure what the ma's are, probably 2dma and 5dma of (h+l+c)/3. In his books, John Person describes this system.

good luck, Mike

Updates - Big Picture, ADS, ANO, CMI GI, Fin Stress, FED Spread, SSEC/FXI Leading, etc.
(A little late, as I was out of town for the long week-end).
 
Big Picture - top in mid 2010, decline into mid 2013 - on schedule.
FED ADS Index - some sort of top in September 2010.
ANO, CMI GI - top in mid 2010 - repeating the pattern of late 2007, early 2008,
and declining for the next few months.
 
Financial Stress Index - bullish.
FED Funds Spread - negative, sideways. No hint of QE2.
 
SSEC/FXI Leading - a grind sideways/up until mid August 2010, then a fall.
 
KC24, our trend confirmation model - consolidation with a bullish bias.

TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - in cash.
When both monthly and weekly agree, go with them, long or short. When they don't, go to cash.
The monthly is still short, could go long again soon.
The weekly turned long. Bullish bias.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading - strong accumulation.
Inverse ETFs slow to confirm.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading - rising accumulation and positive liquidity.
 
$BPNYA - bull confirmed. Crossed 50% and going up.
Changing the column from O to X is a big deal.
 
ES COT - small speculators still long but reducing positions.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down for the next few months.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is sideways/up.
- the projection models suggest a few weeks of continuation sideways/up.
Good luck, Mike H.

hi  freddy123321

fair question (if it's not rethorical)... it takes me about one hour a week to update my sets of charts... all I try to do is to figure out the general direction of the market, as I play options on the indexes... I do not day/swing trade, it's not wise to do that with options... anyway, I think that these days most stocks have a very high beta and "there is almost no edge in trying to pick individual stocks (long or short) compared to leveraged ETFs trading" - see Indicator of the Week: CBOE Correlation Index By Rocky White.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101132&obspage=2

Good luck, Mike H.

Updates - Big Picture, ADS, ANO, CMI GI, FED Spread, SSEC/FXI Leading, etc.
 
Big Picture - top in mid 2010 - on schedule.
FED ADS Index - some sort of top in September 2010.
ANO projection - top in mid 2010 - seems to repeat the pattern of late 2007, early 2008.
CMI GI - top in mid 2010 - declining for the next few months.
 
FED Funds Spread - negative, sideways.
Its influence may have decreased for now. Still worth watching, just in case of QE2.
 
SSEC/FXI Leading - implies a grind sideways/up until early August 2010, then a fall.
The daily FXI is shifted even more to the right than the weekly SSEC, and also a good alignment!!!
 
KC24, our trend confirmation model, is showing consolidation/move-up in all timeframes.
The monthly and weekly are flat. The daily and hourly broke out to the upside.
 
TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - in cash.
When both monthly and weekly agree, go with them, long or short. When they don't, go to cash.
The monthly is still short, the weekly turned long.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading, the indicator has issued a buy signal.
However, TWM/QID shorts are covering while SKF/SDS shorts are not,
a weak confirmation from his big money volume for the inverse ETFs.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading, we have slight accumulation and rising liquidity.
 
$BPNYA is moving up, has switched to a column of X's. Changing the column is a big deal.
Not yet a buy, but exit shorts.
 
ES COT shows small speculators still long but turning to the short side.
They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now:
- the longer term models show the bigger trend is down.
- the mechanical systems indicate the intermediate term direction is sideways/up.
- the projection models suggest a shorter term continuation of the move sideways/up.
Good luck, Mike H.
 

As noted in previous weekly posts:

The Big Picture - very long term.
Nasdaq (blue line) and our projection Nikkei (yellow line) shifted forward 10 years, covering 1995-2020.
This could give us a broad view of the economic cycles.
As per this model we would see some decline between mid 2010 and early 2013.
If it is valid, the top would be in by mid-2010.
It seems it is still on schedule.

Good luck, Mike H.

Updates - Big Picture, ADS Index, ANO Projection, CMI GI Projection, FED Funds Spread, SSEC Leading, etc.
 
Big Picture projection - mid 2010 - on schedule.
FED ADS Index - suggests a move higher into August-September 2010.
Long Term ANO projection - top mid 2010 - seems to repeat the pattern of late 2007, early 2008.
CMI GI - top mid 2010, declining for the next few months.
 
FED Funds Spread - negative, shows a spiking high around 19-July-2010.
Its influence may have decreased for now. Still worth watching, just in case of QE2.
 
SSEC Leading Weekly - implies a grind sideways/up until July-August 2010, then a fall.
 
The KC24, our trend confirmation model, is showing consolidation/up in all timeframes.
 
The TOS PPS (monthly for trend, weekly for timing) conservative model - short.
When both monthly and weekly agree, go with them, long or short. When they don't, go to cash.
The monthly could repeat a whipsaw pattern, as it did before, at this level, and then go up.
 
Pascal Willain's Large Players Money Flow Strength indicator - http://www.effectivevolume.eu.
Per latest reading, the indicator has issued a weak sell signal,
but confirmed by his big money volume for SDS.
 
Marty Chenard's institutional activity and FED funds inflows - http://www.stocktiming.com.
Per latest reading, we have slight accumulation and rising liquidity.
 
$BPNYA is still negative in a column of O's. Changing to a column of X's is a big deal.
ES COT shows small speculators long. They are wrong most of the time, but with delays of weeks.
 
For now, as per our mechanical systems, the intermediate term direction is sideways/down.
As per our projection systems, a corrective move up is possible.
Good luck, Mike H.