For me one better than cash is to buy FXE. That way you're
effectively in the Euro in case there's a dollar decline till you
choose to use it another way. Esp since both are breaking out.
Glad to be of service, unless of course my advice turns out to
suck.
Be careful of the uranium trap, up on big volume down on none,
over and over again.
I think it's cos what you say is right, but 'they' won't do FA
about any alt energy except gasbag until crude really goes throught
the roof, and this parabola wasn't enough to do it..
But I'm wary of uranium stocks esp if you think crude is pulling
back, I'd sooner buy the thing itself (U.TO) when stock fear is
rampant.
So just speculating but if that's half the mortage market, and
the US housing market is really the lynchpin of the global economy,
and they will bail it out, isn't that your crash catalyst right
there?
Hardly inpiration for a rally.
So should be be piling in short again? Opinions Matt,
anyone?
That's my impression too - it sums the breadth for the day at
any one time, so the number will not tell all as the day goes on,
but a reversal will mean something.
Gotta say it's hard work being a goldbug. Perhaps we are in the
company of fundamental smarties (?) who are trading
non-sophisticates!
Why else these common huge rushes in at day's start followed by
being pushed all the way back on nothing volume? Check out the 5 m
vol over the last few days (GDX). Or is there a better
explanation
And considering the huge vested interests the economy coverup
guys have in keeping it down for appearances sake, it will be
difficult till the momentum guys really jump in - but when they
do..! And then just wait for mom & pop!
Been curious about this - so the short funds aren't capitalized
by themselves shorting the longs and so building in those costs in
some way?
- ie going long, say, SDS does not have the same dividend or
borrowing costs as going short SPY (ignoring the ultra doubling
aspect)?
Likewise as you say shorting a short fund costs less than going
long a long fund? so then the issue in costs is whether you are
shorting and not the nature of the fund beng long or short? Is that
so?
I've been favouring sticking with shorting SPY cos it makes my
overall picture of what I'm in cleaner, but would change that if
these costs are significant - please advise anyone who is clear on
it.
Perhaps it's just the humbling recognition that oil is the only
market in the world big enough not to toyed with by manipulators
making money with their US-centric world views and program
trading by tipping the boat back and forth.
Perhaps for the first time, when the market is being held
hostage to the actual fundamentals of supply and demand that's
actually so, and they're starting to get that, so are
reticent before about starting the supposedly inevitable
counter-rally.
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Three cheers for Matt and
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:54 pm
Three cheers for Matt and Dodger!
Free beer at my place toniiiight!
Of course that's best. But I'm
Just offering my strategy. .... For me one better than cash ...
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:51 pm
Of course that's best.
But I'm slightly wary that most of GLD's 250% volume was red bars in the morning trying unsuccessfully to bury it!
Just offering my strategy. .... For
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:46 pm
Just offering my strategy. ....
For me one better than cash is to buy FXE. That way you're effectively in the Euro in case there's a dollar decline till you choose to use it another way. Esp since both are breaking out.
Glad to be of service, unless of course my advice turns out to suck.
Please explain 'discount window' - Does
Banks are down almost 3%. FRE and FNM are getting clobbered. ...
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:23 pm
Please explain 'discount window' -
Does that make this Fannie etc situation a good thing?!!!
Be careful of the uranium
URANIUM
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:15 pm
Be careful of the uranium trap, up on big volume down on none, over and over again.
I think it's cos what you say is right, but 'they' won't do FA about any alt energy except gasbag until crude really goes throught the roof, and this parabola wasn't enough to do it..
But I'm wary of uranium stocks esp if you think crude is pulling back, I'd sooner buy the thing itself (U.TO) when stock fear is rampant.
got ya, what is this
Banks are down almost 3%. FRE and FNM are getting clobbered. ...
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:53 pm
got ya, what is this crazy ass spike - did God speak?
So just speculating but if
Banks are down almost 3%. FRE and FNM are getting clobbered. ...
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:49 pm
So just speculating but if that's half the mortage market, and the US housing market is really the lynchpin of the global economy, and they will bail it out, isn't that your crash catalyst right there?
Hardly inpiration for a rally.
So should be be piling in short again? Opinions Matt, anyone?
That's my impression too -
Market breadth negative GAT- $TRIN
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:16 pm
That's my impression too - it sums the breadth for the day at any one time, so the number will not tell all as the day goes on, but a reversal will mean something.
Are they spending our money
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 11:45 am
Are they spending our money to tank oil now as a plunge diversion policy?
Gotta say it's hard work
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 11:41 am
Gotta say it's hard work being a goldbug. Perhaps we are in the company of fundamental smarties (?) who are trading non-sophisticates!
Why else these common huge rushes in at day's start followed by being pushed all the way back on nothing volume? Check out the 5 m vol over the last few days (GDX). Or is there a better explanation
And considering the huge vested interests the economy coverup guys have in keeping it down for appearances sake, it will be difficult till the momentum guys really jump in - but when they do..! And then just wait for mom & pop!
GDX etc
We are looking at an ugly open...futures are down hard ...
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 10:19 am
Not sure how to read these COTs well, what's your read? will this stick?
Are you guys taking profits on gold stocks or backing up the truck on this morning fade?
Crystal ball on how our
Posted by kreem on 10th of Jul 2008 at 04:13 pm
Crystal ball on how our defensive sector stuff CELG, WYE etc will fare if there's a general rally? - down or just slow? Cover in the update?
Finally a better vibe on
Posted by kreem on 10th of Jul 2008 at 03:57 pm
Finally a better vibe on China than US?
Sign of things to come?
Hey, could someone please address
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 04:38 pm
Hey, could someone please address my earlier question today on short funds now you have time?
Cheers
Matt , too late to
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 04:02 pm
Matt , too late to cover some after hours? Unlikely to get direct follow through on such a big move in the morning?
XLE & USO
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 03:40 pm
what about XLE, big hammer, will it go opposite to USO, Opinion?
WYE
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 03:30 pm
WYE still a looker or should defensive stuff retreat or underfperform in a general bounce, if that's what we're seeing?
help re short funds
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 02:38 pm
Been curious about this - so the short funds aren't capitalized by themselves shorting the longs and so building in those costs in some way?
- ie going long, say, SDS does not have the same dividend or borrowing costs as going short SPY (ignoring the ultra doubling aspect)?
Likewise as you say shorting a short fund costs less than going long a long fund? so then the issue in costs is whether you are shorting and not the nature of the fund beng long or short? Is that so?
I've been favouring sticking with shorting SPY cos it makes my overall picture of what I'm in cleaner, but would change that if these costs are significant - please advise anyone who is clear on it.
Oil & the real world outside US la-la land
Posted by kreem on 8th of Jul 2008 at 02:22 pm
Perhaps it's just the humbling recognition that oil is the only market in the world big enough not to toyed with by manipulators making money with their US-centric world views and program trading by tipping the boat back and forth.
Perhaps for the first time, when the market is being held hostage to the actual fundamentals of supply and demand that's actually so, and they're starting to get that, so are reticent before about starting the supposedly inevitable counter-rally.
New paradigm baby!
Is it my imagination or
Posted by kreem on 7th of Jul 2008 at 04:35 pm
Is it my imagination or are last week's promising long stocks eg getting more extravagantly punished than the rest? eg HTM, FEED, RF.
You really do have to be wary & fast in this environment!