We're buyers of the group into 2026. Steeper yield curve with
rate cuts and accelerating loan growth, coupled with historically
cheap valuations, is the ideal backdrop for Midcap bank stocks.
Maintain an Attractive industry view with median 25% upside (34%
for OWs). Most Preferred: VLY, FITB, CFG.
With their recent underperformance, the Midcap Banks now trade
at a 3x discount versus the largest banks; highest discount in more
than a decade.
Concerns on the timing of the next rate cut and NDFI miss the
bigger picture: A steeper yield curve with rate cuts drives NIM
expansion and faster loan growth
We expect this will be another year with successive quarters of
NII growth, setting the stage for an even stronger 2027.
Credit metrics are already solid and more rate cuts should be
an additional tailwind. All in, we expect Y/Y EPS growth of 12% in
2026 and 13% in 2027.
We see a median 25% upside for the group; 34% for OWs. Most
preferred: VLY (Top Pick), FITB, CFG.
Posted by kalkgrun on 21st of Nov 2025 at 09:35 am
Here’s a breakdown of some of
the better-known companies in MSCI’s list, grouped by
risk exposure(high
/ medium / lower), based on their crypto-treasury concentration,
business model, and commentary from MSCI / analysts.
Risk Tier
Companies
Why They Are Riskier /
Considerations
High Risk
Strategy (MSTR)
- Largest
exposure; known for extremely high BTC holdings.
CCN.com+2CoinCentral+2 - JPMorgan estimates
$2.8B+ passive outflow
riskif MSCI excludes DATs.
CryptoNews - Business model is very treasury-centric and less about
recurring operations. MSCI’s concern: “when most of the value comes
from the balance-sheet asset rather than the underlying business.”
Cointelegraph
High / Medium
Risk
Marathon Digital (MARA),
Riot Platforms (RIOT)
- These
are miners, but some are also treasury-companies (holding
meaningful crypto).
- On MSCI’s preliminary 38 list.
CoinCentral - Mining businesses are more “operational” than pure treasury
firms, but still very tied to crypto cycles, and could face
pressure if forced selling or regulation hits.
- These
are explicitly called out in MSCI’s preliminary list.
CCN.com - Some of these (like Sharplink) may be more
“investment-treasury” than traditional business; others (like
Metaplanet) are more business-oriented but with large BTC exposure.
- Their size (market cap, treasury) is smaller than Strategy,
but they may still face forced outflows or reclassification
risk.
Lower (but
non-negligible) Risk
Other smaller DATs on
MSCI’s list
- There
are many smaller / regional firms in MSCI’s 38 that are less
covered by major media, and likely have smaller market caps or
treasuries.
- Their risk is still real (index exclusion risk), but the
magnitude of forced outflows or institutional risk may be smaller
relative to Strategy.
Posted by kalkgrun on 30th of Oct 2025 at 10:07 am
RBLX -10 interesting l/t play
We see RBLX as a clear leader in the next generation of
entertainment platforms with a path to +1bn users by '30 and a bull
case of $300/share. We see parallels to user-generated content
winners like YouTube that along with RBLX's strong position in AI,
leave us bullish on the opportunity ahead.
We See RBLX Exceeding 1bn MAUs by 2030, With Multiple Paths
to A Bull Case of $300 per Share: One of the most common investor
debates on RBLX focuses on user growth, as some question whether
the company is nearing a ceiling for engagement. We disagree. We
see RBLX as a clear leader in the next generation of entertainment
platforms and believe the company is still in the early stages of
building its audience. We estimate that the platform now has 400mn
total monthly active users (MAUs), which is 2x larger than the
combined ~200mn installed base of PlayStation, Xbox, and Switch…and
nearly one quarter the size of YouTube's audience, which itself is
a key proof point that user-generated content platforms only deepen
their moats as they scale. Ultimately, we estimate that RBLX is
currently just 3% penetrated in its opportunity among 5-34 year
olds (with room to expand demographics over time) and see a path to
>1bn users from here. We believe that this creates room for
sustained outperformance in RBLX shares and visibility to valuation
of $300 per share, with potential paths via faster audience growth
as well as success in advertising.
Posted by kalkgrun on 29th of Oct 2025 at 08:44 am
Morgan raised BE target to $155
Raising our PT to $155 and remain OW. We are raising our
estimates across 2025-2030. For 2025 the company indicated that
results could exceed the high end of previous guidance. Going
forward we have pulled forward the pace of volume shipments such
that we estimate a 2 GW run rate of shipments by 2028 vs. 2029 in
our prior model. We model 3 GW of shipments in 2030 vs. 2.2 GW
previously. We are raising our PT to $155 which implies a ~30x
EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 MSe, at the high end of the 20-30x
multiple range we've seen the stock trade over the past several
years. We use a DCF to value the stock and the valuation increase
came largely from the faster pace of revenue growth and volumes
driving faster margin expansion between now and 2030, along with a
modest decrease in the risk-free rate to 4% from 4.25% to reflect
latest Treasury yields. We continue to see strong momentum and
remain OW.
Posted by kalkgrun on 28th of Oct 2025 at 08:28 pm
Bloom Energy: Highway to Direct Current Bloom is the only
baseload power generation technology that natively outputs 800V
Direct Current electricity, the voltage standard for next-gen AI
servers from NVIDIA, AMD, and Google.That means AI datacenters
powered by Bloom fuel cells can cut electrical + battery costs by
>60% vs. other baseload electricity sources such as gas
turbines, nuclear, or the grid.The future is Direct Current.
Presentation here
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MIRM is on the IBD
Posted by kalkgrun on 4th of Dec 2025 at 03:59 pm
MIRM is on the IBD buy list flat base early-stage flat base with a 78.54 trigger. Also STOK right at the 50dma.
Morgan has an interesting note
Posted by kalkgrun on 4th of Dec 2025 at 10:50 am
Morgan has an interesting note on midcap banks
We're buyers of the group into 2026. Steeper yield curve with rate cuts and accelerating loan growth, coupled with historically cheap valuations, is the ideal backdrop for Midcap bank stocks. Maintain an Attractive industry view with median 25% upside (34% for OWs). Most Preferred: VLY, FITB, CFG.
With their recent underperformance, the Midcap Banks now trade at a 3x discount versus the largest banks; highest discount in more than a decade.
Just wait until the delisting
MSTR... I mean, who could have seen this coming?
Posted by kalkgrun on 1st of Dec 2025 at 01:37 pm
Just wait until the delisting at the end of the month
Here’s a breakdown of some
Just about read this: MSCI potential delisting of MSTR and ...
Posted by kalkgrun on 21st of Nov 2025 at 09:35 am
Here’s a breakdown of some of the better-known companies in MSCI’s list, grouped by risk exposure(high / medium / lower), based on their crypto-treasury concentration, business model, and commentary from MSCI / analysts.
- JPMorgan estimates $2.8B+ passive outflow riskif MSCI excludes DATs. CryptoNews
- Business model is very treasury-centric and less about recurring operations. MSCI’s concern: “when most of the value comes from the balance-sheet asset rather than the underlying business.” Cointelegraph
- On MSCI’s preliminary 38 list. CoinCentral
- Mining businesses are more “operational” than pure treasury firms, but still very tied to crypto cycles, and could face pressure if forced selling or regulation hits.
- Some of these (like Sharplink) may be more “investment-treasury” than traditional business; others (like Metaplanet) are more business-oriented but with large BTC exposure.
- Their size (market cap, treasury) is smaller than Strategy, but they may still face forced outflows or reclassification risk.
- Their risk is still real (index exclusion risk), but the magnitude of forced outflows or institutional risk may be smaller relative to Strategy.
Just about read this: MSCI
Posted by kalkgrun on 21st of Nov 2025 at 09:33 am
Just about read this: MSCI potential delisting of MSTR and companies that hold 50% of assets in cryptodecision 12/31/2025
Some Areospace is hanging in
Posted by kalkgrun on 17th of Nov 2025 at 12:13 pm
Some Areospace is hanging in there. RTX, HWM, EMBJ look solid. Looking for a RKLB entry Neutron launch in early 26.
Huge CME Awesome pictures!
Aurora last night at my house
Posted by kalkgrun on 12th of Nov 2025 at 01:51 pm
Huge CME Awesome pictures!
MCK McKesson looks like a
Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 03:23 pm
MCK McKesson looks like a slower growth bellweather. Green today. Morgan has a $916 target
I though so. He's been
QQQ - Measured move.
Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 01:07 pm
I though so. He's been solid forever.
Cobra?
QQQ - Measured move.
Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 11:25 am
Cobra?
KRMN down -6. No news
Posted by kalkgrun on 5th of Nov 2025 at 01:17 pm
KRMN down -6. No news that I see report tomorrow
S-4on CCCX to Inflecqtion. Might
Posted by kalkgrun on 5th of Nov 2025 at 11:02 am
S-4on CCCX to Inflecqtion. Might play some LEAPS on this
They trade closely with the
Uranium, Quantum, and Rare Earth seeing more air taken out
Posted by kalkgrun on 3rd of Nov 2025 at 01:10 pm
They trade closely with the computer infrastructure plays. I can't even really find a rival to their business. FCEL maybe QS someday.
That leaves HUT, RIOT, BITF.
CIFR +15 on a 15 year lease with Amazon AWS
Posted by kalkgrun on 3rd of Nov 2025 at 08:51 am
That leaves HUT, RIOT, BITF. Although it rumored that HUT has a deal in place. Also BTDR
CIFR +15 on a 15
Posted by kalkgrun on 3rd of Nov 2025 at 08:43 am
CIFR +15 on a 15 year lease with Amazon AWS
RBLX -10 interesting l/t play We
Posted by kalkgrun on 30th of Oct 2025 at 10:07 am
RBLX -10 interesting l/t play
We see RBLX as a clear leader in the next generation of entertainment platforms with a path to +1bn users by '30 and a bull case of $300/share. We see parallels to user-generated content winners like YouTube that along with RBLX's strong position in AI, leave us bullish on the opportunity ahead.
What about nVent Electric ( NVT)?
AMSC +10 on no news that I see. earnings after ...
Posted by kalkgrun on 29th of Oct 2025 at 01:12 pm
What about nVent Electric ( NVT)?
AMSC +10 on no news
Posted by kalkgrun on 29th of Oct 2025 at 11:54 am
AMSC +10 on no news that I see. earnings after the close
Morgan raised BE target to
Bloom BE with a huge move +20. Oracle data center ...
Posted by kalkgrun on 29th of Oct 2025 at 08:44 am
Raising our PT to $155 and remain OW. We are raising our estimates across 2025-2030. For 2025 the company indicated that results could exceed the high end of previous guidance. Going forward we have pulled forward the pace of volume shipments such that we estimate a 2 GW run rate of shipments by 2028 vs. 2029 in our prior model. We model 3 GW of shipments in 2030 vs. 2.2 GW previously. We are raising our PT to $155 which implies a ~30x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 MSe, at the high end of the 20-30x multiple range we've seen the stock trade over the past several years. We use a DCF to value the stock and the valuation increase came largely from the faster pace of revenue growth and volumes driving faster margin expansion between now and 2030, along with a modest decrease in the risk-free rate to 4% from 4.25% to reflect latest Treasury yields. We continue to see strong momentum and remain OW.
Bloom Energy: Highway to Direct
Bloom BE with a huge move +20. Oracle data center ...
Posted by kalkgrun on 28th of Oct 2025 at 08:28 pm
Bloom Energy: Highway to Direct Current Bloom is the only baseload power generation technology that natively outputs 800V Direct Current electricity, the voltage standard for next-gen AI servers from NVIDIA, AMD, and Google.That means AI datacenters powered by Bloom fuel cells can cut electrical + battery costs by >60% vs. other baseload electricity sources such as gas turbines, nuclear, or the grid.The future is Direct Current. Presentation here