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MIRM is on the IBD

Posted by kalkgrun on 4th of Dec 2025 at 03:59 pm

MIRM is on the IBD buy list flat base early-stage flat base with a 78.54 trigger.  Also STOK right at the 50dma. 

Morgan has an interesting note

Posted by kalkgrun on 4th of Dec 2025 at 10:50 am

Morgan has an interesting note on midcap banks 

We're buyers of the group into 2026. Steeper yield curve with rate cuts and accelerating loan growth, coupled with historically cheap valuations, is the ideal backdrop for Midcap bank stocks. Maintain an Attractive industry view with median 25% upside (34% for OWs). Most Preferred: VLY, FITB, CFG.

With their recent underperformance, the Midcap Banks now trade at a 3x discount versus the largest banks; highest discount in more than a decade.

  • Concerns on the timing of the next rate cut and NDFI miss the bigger picture: A steeper yield curve with rate cuts drives NIM expansion and faster loan growth
  • We expect this will be another year with successive quarters of NII growth, setting the stage for an even stronger 2027.
  • Credit metrics are already solid and more rate cuts should be an additional tailwind. All in, we expect Y/Y EPS growth of 12% in 2026 and 13% in 2027.
  • We see a median 25% upside for the group; 34% for OWs. Most preferred: VLY (Top Pick), FITB, CFG.

Just wait until the delisting at the end of the month 

Here’s a breakdown of some of the better-known companies in MSCI’s list, grouped by risk exposure(high / medium / lower), based on their crypto-treasury concentration, business model, and commentary from MSCI / analysts.

Risk Tier Companies Why They Are Riskier / Considerations
High Risk Strategy (MSTR) - Largest exposure; known for extremely high BTC holdings. CCN.com+2CoinCentral+2  
- JPMorgan estimates $2.8B+ passive outflow riskif MSCI excludes DATs. CryptoNews  
- Business model is very treasury-centric and less about recurring operations. MSCI’s concern: “when most of the value comes from the balance-sheet asset rather than the underlying business.” Cointelegraph
High / Medium Risk Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT) - These are miners, but some are also treasury-companies (holding meaningful crypto).
- On MSCI’s preliminary 38 list. CoinCentral  
- Mining businesses are more “operational” than pure treasury firms, but still very tied to crypto cycles, and could face pressure if forced selling or regulation hits.
Medium Risk Sharplink Gaming, Metaplanet, Bitfarms, Nano Labs, DigitalX, Exodus Movement, CoinShares International - These are explicitly called out in MSCI’s preliminary list. CCN.com  
- Some of these (like Sharplink) may be more “investment-treasury” than traditional business; others (like Metaplanet) are more business-oriented but with large BTC exposure.
- Their size (market cap, treasury) is smaller than Strategy, but they may still face forced outflows or reclassification risk.
Lower (but non-negligible) Risk Other smaller DATs on MSCI’s list - There are many smaller / regional firms in MSCI’s 38 that are less covered by major media, and likely have smaller market caps or treasuries.
- Their risk is still real (index exclusion risk), but the magnitude of forced outflows or institutional risk may be smaller relative to Strategy.

Just about read this: MSCI

Posted by kalkgrun on 21st of Nov 2025 at 09:33 am

Some Areospace is hanging in

Posted by kalkgrun on 17th of Nov 2025 at 12:13 pm

Some Areospace is hanging in there.  RTX, HWM, EMBJ look solid.  Looking for a RKLB entry Neutron launch in early 26. 

Huge CME  Awesome pictures!

MCK McKesson looks like a

Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 03:23 pm

MCK McKesson looks like a slower growth bellweather.  Green today.   Morgan has a $916 target 

I though so.  He's been

QQQ - Measured move.

Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 01:07 pm

I though so.  He's been solid forever. 

Cobra?

QQQ - Measured move.

Posted by kalkgrun on 6th of Nov 2025 at 11:25 am

Cobra?

KRMN down -6.  No news

Posted by kalkgrun on 5th of Nov 2025 at 01:17 pm

KRMN down -6.  No news that I see report tomorrow 

S-4on CCCX to Inflecqtion.  Might

Posted by kalkgrun on 5th of Nov 2025 at 11:02 am

S-4on CCCX to Inflecqtion.  Might play some LEAPS on this 

They trade closely with the computer infrastructure plays. I can't even really find a rival to their business.  FCEL maybe QS someday.   

That leaves HUT, RIOT, BITF.  Although it rumored that HUT has a deal in place. Also BTDR 

CIFR +15 on a 15

Posted by kalkgrun on 3rd of Nov 2025 at 08:43 am

CIFR +15 on a 15 year lease with Amazon AWS 

RBLX -10 interesting l/t play  We

Posted by kalkgrun on 30th of Oct 2025 at 10:07 am

RBLX -10 interesting l/t play 

We see RBLX as a clear leader in the next generation of entertainment platforms with a path to +1bn users by '30 and a bull case of $300/share. We see parallels to user-generated content winners like YouTube that along with RBLX's strong position in AI, leave us bullish on the opportunity ahead.



  • We See RBLX Exceeding 1bn MAUs by 2030, With Multiple Paths to A Bull Case of $300 per Share: One of the most common investor debates on RBLX focuses on user growth, as some question whether the company is nearing a ceiling for engagement. We disagree. We see RBLX as a clear leader in the next generation of entertainment platforms and believe the company is still in the early stages of building its audience. We estimate that the platform now has 400mn total monthly active users (MAUs), which is 2x larger than the combined ~200mn installed base of PlayStation, Xbox, and Switch…and nearly one quarter the size of YouTube's audience, which itself is a key proof point that user-generated content platforms only deepen their moats as they scale. Ultimately, we estimate that RBLX is currently just 3% penetrated in its opportunity among 5-34 year olds (with room to expand demographics over time) and see a path to >1bn users from here. We believe that this creates room for sustained outperformance in RBLX shares and visibility to valuation of $300 per share, with potential paths via faster audience growth as well as success in advertising.

What about nVent Electric ( NVT)?  

AMSC +10 on no news

Posted by kalkgrun on 29th of Oct 2025 at 11:54 am

AMSC +10 on no news that I see.  earnings after the close 

  • Morgan raised BE target to $155

Raising our PT to $155 and remain OW. We are raising our estimates across 2025-2030. For 2025 the company indicated that results could exceed the high end of previous guidance. Going forward we have pulled forward the pace of volume shipments such that we estimate a 2 GW run rate of shipments by 2028 vs. 2029 in our prior model. We model 3 GW of shipments in 2030 vs. 2.2 GW previously. We are raising our PT to $155 which implies a ~30x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 MSe, at the high end of the 20-30x multiple range we've seen the stock trade over the past several years. We use a DCF to value the stock and the valuation increase came largely from the faster pace of revenue growth and volumes driving faster margin expansion between now and 2030, along with a modest decrease in the risk-free rate to 4% from 4.25% to reflect latest Treasury yields. We continue to see strong momentum and remain OW.

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