Drones are the big issue.  It's estimated that Iran can produce 400 drones per day and they have thousands stockpiled. Iranian ballistic missiles somewhere near production 1-3 per day.  

-19

LMT and RTX mainly 

The SaaSpocalypse: Not What You Think It Is

AI capabilities are compounding on a monthly cadence. Google released Gemini 3.1 Pro last week with double the reasoning performance of the version it launched three months ago. OpenAI is burning cash at unprecedented rates. Anthropic is launching enterprise agent products. The competitive intensity among these labs is accelerating faster than any single software company can adapt.

And they’re not being coy about who they’re coming for.

The Information reportedthat during a recent investor presentation, OpenAI leadership told investors they expect their future products and agents to replace software from Salesforce, Workday, Adobe, Slack, and Atlassian. This came alongside updated financial forecasts showing OpenAI expects revenue to hit $30 billion this year and $62 billion next year, with $25 billion of cash burn in 2026 alone. They’re not messing around.

Every credit investor holding paper in the enterprise software stack should be paying attention to that.

Remember when Steve Jobs went on stage and said the iPhone would replace your phone, your iPod, and your internet communicator? Nokia and BlackBerry were still printing record revenues that quarter. Didn’t matter. The terminal value of those businesses dropped sharply within five years. You just couldn’t see it in the earnings yet.

For a B-rated enterprise software company with $500 million of ARR and 5x leverage, the near-term is probably fine. Customers still paying. Contracts still renewing. But the willingnessto renew at current pricing starts eroding as AI alternatives improve. That compresses net revenue retention. Compresses growth expectations. Makes the leverage ratio look worse on an enterprise value basis even if EBITDA hasn’t moved yet.

The relevant question isn’t “will this company default in the next 12 months?” but “will anyone underwrite the refinancing at par when the maturity comes due?”

For a growing number of names, the answer is no.

The data backs it up. A record $25 billion of US software loansslid into distress in January. But look at Europe. Almost nothing. Just 3.6% of European institutional loans maturing before 2027are software-related, compared to 17.3% in the US.

That divergence tells you this isn’t purely an AI story. It’s also a leverage story.

US sponsors loaded 7-8x leverage onto subscription revenue streams they told lenders were “recurring and predictable.” European deals were smaller. More conservative. When sentiment shifts, the US book has zero margin for error while Europe shrugs.

AI just revealed that leverage was always too high.

Think about it: 8x leverage on a SaaS business was always insane. The only thing propping it up was the assumption that the subscription stream would last forever and switching costs were permanent. That net revenue retention above 110% was a law of nature rather than a cyclical artifact of a market with no real alternatives.

Assumptions like that die slow. Then they die all at once.

You know what’s telling? Several sponsor-backed software firms released earnings ahead of schedule last week. Voluntarily. To calm lender nerves. Historically secretive companies proactively opening their books.

Two years ago a sponsor would have told its lender group to pound sand if they asked for interim financials early. Now they’re disclosing because they’re scared of what happens if they don’t.

For the first time in this cycle, lenders have leverage over borrowers. That shift is real, even if it’s probably temporary.

Update: Market Chatter: BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners, EQT Near Deal to Buy AES

-4.04%

+4.40%

All Roads Lead to Gold.  This was a solid discussion 

ReElement is the most directly relevant yttrium/scandium refining play in the US right now.

ReElement claims to be the only U.S. company capable of economically separating both heavy and light rare earth elements, using its proprietary LAD (Ligand Assisted Displacement) chromatography technology, which eliminates toxic solvents, lowers capex, and scales modularly. Al Jazeera

In December 2025, ReElement filed five new patent applications covering high-purity refining of germanium, antimony, terbium, gallium, gadolinium, yttrium, and heavy rare earth separation — with claimed yttrium purity of 99.9–99.999%. RFF That's manufacturing-grade, directly applicable to the current crisis.

Government validation is real:The Department of War made a two-year $2 million investment in ReElement Technologies to address domestic critical mineral separation and purification capabilities. SFA Small dollar amount but high symbolic value.

ReElement Technologies has also forged a $1.4 billion partnership with the U.S. Department of War and Vulcan Elements to advance a fully integrated domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. Accuris That is a headline-level commitment.

Feedstock advantage:AREC has validated the ability to extract and concentrate yttrium, dysprosium, terbium, and other HREEs from coal waste deposits exceeding 120 million tons across Kentucky and West Virginia — fully permitted with existing logistics infrastructure. CSET The coal waste angle is genuinely clever — it bypasses the permitting nightmare of new mine.

Still burning cash, no meaningful revenue:AREC reported Q3 2025 EPS of -$0.07 — still loss-making. The next earnings are March 10, 2026. The Quantum Insider The company is pre-profitability. Analysts still expect a loss next quarter.

Nasdaq compliance issue:AREC disclosed it received a notice from Nasdaq Regulation regarding compliance — this is a real risk flag for a small-cap. Delisting risk, even if manageable, adds volatility.

The corporate structure is messy:AREC holds a minority stakein ReElement — not full ownership. This means AREC shareholders don't get full economic exposure to ReElement's upside. That's a significant structural discount.

Announcement velocity is a yellow flag:The volume of press releases — blockchain tokenization of minerals, African conferences, Uzbekistan partnerships — is characteristic of a company that's very good at generating news flow. The key question is whether operational throughput is keeping pace with the narrative.

Analysts explicitly flag the uncertain commercial scalability of ReElement's technology as a primary investment risk. Farmonaut®

The $200M equity facility:ReElement secured a $200M equity facility with Transition Equity Partners to expand the Marion, Indiana facility. SFA Positive for scale-up, but equity facilities of this type are drawn down over time and often dilutive.

I've tried a couple entries but keep getting stopped out.  Wildly popular products with 150m+ users and billions of hours of playtime. 

The U.S. currently has zero domestic scandium production and no operational alternative sources outside China, with stockpiles likely measured in months rather than years. Clark Hill

Global scandium output is measured in only a few dozen tons per year. China dominates production, and while Beijing has resumed many rare earth exports since imposing restrictions in April 2025, shipments of scandium to the United States remain sharply reduced. China Briefing

The targeting is deliberate and precise. China's licensing requirements now effectively apply to nearly every Chinese-origin rare earth that can be used to manufacture logic chips at 14nm or smaller or memory chips with 256 layers or more. Center for Strategic and International Studies This is surgical — aimed directly at the most advanced US semiconductor production.

Who Is Most Exposed — Sell / Trim?

Semiconductors (Highest Scandium Risk)

This is the sector you weren't watching but should be. Scandium's primary chip role is in bulk acoustic wave (BAW) filters— the RF filters in every 5G phone and base station. The transition from 3G to 5G was made possible by scandium-based technology, proven to work at 20+ GHz frequencies. Al Jazeera

The companies most directly in the crosshairs:

Qorvo (QRVO)and Broadcom (AVGO)— the dominant BAW filter makers. Qorvo is arguably the single most exposed public company to a scandium shortage. Their entire BAW filter business depends on it. AVGO has more revenue diversification but still has meaningful RF exposure.

Qualcomm (QCOM)— designs the modems that integrate BAW filters; less direct materials exposure but disrupted if its filter supply chain breaks.

Apple (AAPL), Samsung— end users. Disruption would be felt in product timelines, not earnings immediately.

Aerospace (Same as Yttrium, but Different Application)

When alloyed with aluminum, scandium adds roughly 50 MPa of yield strength per 0.1% by weight added, while also improving corrosion resistance, weldability, and extrudability — making it particularly valuable for aerospace applications. Al Jazeera

HWM and RTX— same trim thesis as yttrium, compounded. They're now facing dual shortages.

Who to Add — Western Scandium Supply Plays

Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL — ASX / no US listing yet)

This is the single most direct Western scandium play in existence. Sunrise's Syerston project in New South Wales holds the world's largest and highest-grade primary scandium deposit — 45.9 million tonnes at 414 ppm scandium, containing over 19,000 tonnes of the metal, a 98% increase from previous estimates. If delivered, projected output of 60 tonnes per year over a 32-year mine life would fundamentally reshape global supply dynamics. MarketScreener

The strategic validation is real: Lockheed Martin secured an option to purchase up to 25% of Syerston's annual scandium output over five years. MarketScreener

The stock is up over 2,500% from its lows but has pulled back sharply — the company is finalizing an updated Syerston feasibility study and has sought a trading halt SFA , suggesting a major announcement is imminent. This is the highest-risk / highest-reward name in the space. ASX-listed only for now — accessible via OTC or international brokerage.

Rio Tinto (RIO — NYSE)

The most de-risked way to get scandium exposure right now with a US listing. Rio Tinto became the first North American producer of scandium oxide in 2022, and its Quebec facility represents the entirety of North American scandium supply. The US Defense Logistics Agency has selected Rio Tinto as the only vendor capable of fulfilling the government's contract needs Yahoo Finance , with a $40M purchase agreement for the national stockpile. A C$25M investment from Canada's Growth Fund is now expanding the Quebec facility's nameplate capacity to 9 tonnes per annum. Yahoo Finance

This is a rounding error for RIO's overall revenues, but the strategic positioning gets re-rated in a crisis — and the government contract creates a floor.

NioCorp Developments (NB — Nasdaq)

The US awarded up to $10 million to Elk Creek Resources, a unit of NioCorp Developments, to increase domestic scandium supply. The Motley Fool NioCorp's Nebraska Elk Creek project would produce scandium as a co-product of niobium. Still pre-revenue, high risk, but 100% US-domiciled with government funding behind it.

Energy Fuels (UUUU)

Less direct on scandium than yttrium, but worth noting: their monazite processing stream could be expanded. The DoD backing makes them a beneficiary of any emergency critical minerals legislation.

Scandium Decision Matrix

The Macro Picture

What makes scandium uniquely dangerous vs. yttrium: the market is so small(40 tons/year globally) that even a tiny supply disruption cascades immediately. There's no buffer inventory, no substitute for BAW filters, and no Western producer at scale. China's decision to classify scandium as a dual-use military material reflects a broader pattern of using resource dominance as geopolitical leverage, creating structural demand for Western alternative sources regardless of cost. Al Jazeera

The March/April Trump-Xi summit is the binary event for bothyttrium and scandium. A deal buys time. No deal — or a failed summit — and you're looking at production shutdowns in 5G chip manufacturing within months, not years.

Tier 1 — Nearest to Actual Yttrium/HREE Production

Energy Fuels (UUUU) — Best Near-Term Western HREE Play

This is arguably the most actionable name right now. Energy Fuels is shifting to commercial-scale production of dysprosium and terbium at its White Mesa Mill in Utah in the second half of 2026 — which would mark the first U.S. commercial production of heavy rare earths in many years. Global Policy Watch Yttrium is co-located in their monazite feedstock.

Critically, in January 2026 Energy Fuels announced plans to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, aiming to become a "mine-to-metal & alloy" rare earth champion, with planned output of 6,000 tpa NdPr and 240 tpa dysprosium. Rare Earth Exchanges That's a transformational scale-up.

The stock has already run hard — UUUU is up roughly 222% over the past year Accuris — but the H2 2026 HREE production flip is a genuine hard catalyst. Watch the February 27 earnings call for yttrium-specific updates.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC — ASX / LYSCF OTC) — Only Scaled Non-China Producer

Lynas is the most de-risked name in this space globally. Its Mount Weld asset in Western Australia is one of the highest-grade rare earth mines in the world, and its Lynas Malaysia facility commenced first production of separated dysprosium and terbium in 2025. Center for Strategic and International Studies Yttrium flows through their HREE separation stream. This is the "sleep at night" pick — larger cap, real revenue, proven ops.

Tier 2 — Advanced Projects, Production 2027–2029

Alkane Resources (ALK — ASX / ALKEF OTC)

The most direct yttrium-specific play in the entire Western world, but still pre-production on REEs. Alkane's Dubbo Project in New South Wales holds one of the most advanced Western developments for zirconium, niobium, yttrium and rare earth production — a resource containing zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium and rare earths with a mine life in excess of 200 years. Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman Yahoo Finance

The Dubbo project is looking at expanded startup capacity given that demand for yttrium and rare earth products has increased significantly, and the development would make it a significant producer of yttrium, dysprosium and terbium outside China. Yahoo Finance

Stock is up 170% over the past year but still at a relatively small market cap (~A$2.2B). Accessible to US investors via OTC as ALKEF. The risk: it's still awaiting final investment decision and financing — this is a 2028+ production story.

Northern Minerals (NTU — ASX)

Northern Minerals is focused on becoming the first significant producer of dysprosium and other heavy rare earths outside China. The company's Browns Range Project is a potentially important source of yttrium contained in xenotime mineralisation. Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman Pre-revenue, higher risk, but yttrium is literally in the ore type (xenotime = yttrium phosphate mineral). Thinly traded for US investors.

Tier 3 — US-Based, Longer Timeline

USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Focused on its Round Top project in Texas, which contains yttrium and HREEs in its deposit. Building a domestic processing facility. Earlier stage than UUUU but 100% US-domiciled, which matters for DoD contract purposes. Stock has been volatile given its small cap.

NioCorp Developments (NB)

NioCorp appears on yttrium mining stock screens Al Jazeera due to its Nebraska Elk Creek project, which contains scandium and niobium — with some yttrium. More of a niobium/scandium story, yttrium is secondary.

Quick Comparison Table

1) New reports (Feb 26, 2026):
Severe shortages hitting critical U.S. tech supply chains
• U.S. aerospace and semiconductor suppliers are reporting worsening shortages of rare earth elements like yttriumand scandium, even after a partial trade truce with China. Some companies have turned away customers or are rationing materials.
• These shortages are pressuring engine coatings, defense tech, and chip manufacturing—fields where yttrium’s unique properties (high-temperature stability, insulating coatings) are crucial. 

https://www.techspot.com/news/110283-world-running-out-yttrium-little-known-rare-earth.html

Bubble Argument

I think this is the third ER in a row that it's sold of after earnings 

Air Mobility (EVEX) trades at a discounted enterprise value relative to peers (below Joby/Archer despite a large order book and UAM runway) while sitting on ~$410M+ in cash and equivalents with total liquidity near $534M, giving runway through certification milestones. With Embraer owning a majority stake (~72%+) and funding development through equity raises and Master Service Agreements, EVEX benefits from aerospace manufacturing expertise and improved capital efficiency versus standalone eVTOL developers. That combination of balance-sheet strength, discounted valuation vs peers, and strategic Embraer partnership underpins the case for adding EVEX ahead of type certification and early operations catalysts.

Morgan note from January "While we still believe DELL's scale and supply-chain prowess position it better than other OEMs, we view the memory headwinds as an industry-wide challenge for every Hardware OEM we cover, and therefore remain UW-rated on DELL with our FY27 EPS 10% below Street forecasts."

curious how the memory shortages hit them 

Long EMBJ Spec in  BETA  and EVEX

HUT, WULF, IREN all making moves

It's been a monster. Reports tomorrow after close 

Also HWM and GEV