TMV is the 3x short ETF for 30 year Treasury. It moves with TBT, only faster

TNA is ex dividend today with a big short term capital gain.

Last year in November and December many of the leaveraged ETF's, such as sds, twm, srs, etc. had some pretty big distributions of short term capital gains.  The distributions can make your charts and trading systems look pretty strange on the ex dividend date.

The same thing is happening for the triple leaveraged etf's.  I am holding TMV, the Direxion triple 30 year treasury bear etf.  It is ex dividend today and the payout is around 12%.  The 12% drop in price this morning shocked me until I found the information on the Direxion website.

UUP shot up, evidently on news that they won't issue any more shares of it.  The futures for the dollar hardly moved.

My attempt to provide the full report from David Rosenberg failed, so here is a link to the full report:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19430778/Lunch-With-Dave-090409

It is worth reading.

The market rallied Friday after the jobs report.  Evidently the buyers thought the report was ok.  Here is a bloomberg interview with David Rosenberg, the former chief economist for Merrill Lynch.  He now resides in Canada working for a boutiqe wealth management firm.  Watch the video.  He makes a lot of sense.  I have also uploaded (I hope) his full analysis on the jobs situation.  He also believes this is a bear market rally.

Video: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Economist%20Rosenberg%20Interview%20on%20U.S.%20Jobs%20Data%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vMT7L0pqUx3Q.asf

Go to the Intra Week Updates tab.  That version is not requiring a log in.

Had the same problem and went to the Intra Week Updates and that one worked without the login

That is a helpful list.  I found a couple more for the bond market:

Bear: These are bond prices, inverse of yields.  As yields go up (inflation), the prices of bonds go down and these etf's go up.

TYO - triple 10year Treasury
TMV - triple 30 year Treasury

I am up about 25% on TBT and swapped it out for TMV today.

Over the time period used the spy was almost unchaged.  I did a similar analysis and found they both work the way they are supposed to.  From Jan 6 to Mar 6, the spy lost 28%, SSO lost 48% and SDS gained 63%.  So SDS worked better than advertised when the market is going down. Remember these are supposed to double the percentagemove.  Then from Mar 6 to May 8, SPY gained 35%, SSO gained 80% and SDS lost 48%.  So SSO worked better than advertised when the market is going up. 

While there might be some minor descrpancies when the price change is small, it looks to me like they work well when you buy the one for the market direction:  SSO for an uptrend and SDS for a downtrend.  People analzed them before and did not account for the big dividends and capital gains these etf's paid in December.

I have held them overnight and they definitely move fast.

Steve talked about the inverse correlation fo the $USD to the $SPX.  The $USD is a composite index of the exchange rates for the dollar.  More specifically, the strongest correlation has been the Japanese Yen to the Dollar.  Denis Gartman has talked about this on CNBC's Fast Money and John Carter also talks about it in his newsletter.  

The primary reason for the correlation is known as the "Carry Trade".  After Japan's economy collapsed in the late 80's, the Japanses lowered interest rates dramatically to under 0.5% and they have stayed there.  The Japanese and hedge funds outside of Japan borrowed huge amounts of money at these low rates and bought assests all over the world.  This worked well as long as the exchange rates went in their favor or were stable.  The past couple of months the Yen has strengthened trememdously against the dollar and the Euro forcing the unwinding of the Carry Trade and thus they have to sell the assets they bought to pay back the loans.  It is very likely that the money was used to greatly increase the leaverage of already highly leaveraged investments.  

If you want to easily watch the exchange rates and don't have the futures or the foreign exchange, there are etf's that track them.  FXY tracks the Yen vs the dollar.  FXE tracks the Euro vs the dollar and FXB tracks the British Pound vs the dollar. 

Eventaully this will stop being a major influence, but it still apears strong for now.

Last week 4 new etf's came out that move at 3 times the speed of the Russel 1,000 and the Russel 2000.  Russel indices track 3,000 companies.  The Russel 1,000 are the largest of the 3,000 and the Russel 2,000 and the smallest 2,000.

For the long positions:  BGU moves at 3 times the rate of the Russel 3,000 and TNA moves at 3 times the rate of the Russel 2,000

For the short side:  BGZ goes up at 3 times the rate as the Russel 1,000 goes down and TZA goes up at 3 times the rate as the Russel 2,000 goes down.

The volumes are very low because they are new and sometimes the spreads are wide, but since they track the indices they do move.  I am currently long BGU and TNA and they are working well.

Yes, I cannot get the sound to the newsletter, but I thought maybe I messed up some settings after getting Service Pak 1 for Vista.  I can play other mp3 files.