The only thing that bothers me about tomorrow and QEIII is that the markets are often underpinned by the expectation (hope) that the Fed can act at anytime. Hope is a very very powerful thing.

If the Fed does announce QEIII I wonder if it will be perceived as the Fed shooting their last bullet and therefore being powerless to underpin the market anymore. The hope of more Fed intervention being at least temporarily removed might actually produce a sell off in the S&P right after a short term pop on the news and possibly mark a bottom in interest rates

So if no QEIII, selloff, if QEIII pop and drop....and then eventual front running...

Probably too bearish a view though, be fun to watch though :)

Some took his speech as changing his position from "crack only if economy weakening" to "crack helps the economy" so crack at any time...

http://www.freestockcharts.com/?emailChartID=7dfbde12-48ac-4537-826f-3c511cbc9b00

Waiting to break the lower trendline....

EU is not paying the next loan to Greece to ratchet up the pressure...

Question for you technical geniuses out there. After Matt and Steve have taught so much about pivots and how much the markets respect them. Now I have a question when a stock like apple today gaps under the s2 pivot in its 5 minute chart, do you just throw them out or do you expect it to at least test that pivot?

yeah, nice recovery, I'm as bearish as you are but I really want to see a close below the trendline to negate a push up an earnings expectations...

I've been thinking about the path of the markets, Greece and so forth. 

This is total speculation at this point and not based on ANY chart or technical analysis other then the vague understanding I have of Elliot Wave and the past actions of the Fed and politicians in Europe.

Now the Fed and the Europeans have been showing a fair degree of unified action. Credit swaps, visits, the whole nine yards. Understandably since the European markets are obviously affecting the US markets. If Greece implodes everyone loses. There is only one basic bullet the Fed that the Fed has, create more fiat credit, basically all their solutions are a variation on that theme. 

Lately we have been hearing rumors of the EU leveraging their bailout fund and other solutions and so forth. So somehow in some way they are going to create more fiat credit to throw at the PIGs and hope some of it sticks.

Now if I were Bernanke and I wanted to maximize the jolt to the markets, I would coordinate my efforts with the Europeans and when they announce some new "improved" Greece solution, it will be create more fiat credit, I would announce the US version with the latest and greatest version of QEIII. Of course both would announce the new solutions on a Sunday night right before futures open.

And I would tell my good buddies at GS and JPM so that they could spread the rumor on Friday before close of a Greece default, or even better get the Germans to reject a key vote on Thursday, so the markets will tank on the Friday before, Bears will rejoice and back by the truck, meanwhile, GS and JPM will buy everything on that capitulation day and go long, so long. The on Monday will have the biggest rally EVER and bears will get crucified, shorts will get squeezed and we open up over 300 pts on the DOW and end the day +500 :)

Personally I don't think that rally will last more the a couple of months, because the effects of QEIII will be limited, earning are going to degrade because of the dollar and more fiat credit CANNOT fix the problems that fiat credit created in the first place, then after that rally ends, we pay for all this credit creation and the whole house or cards comes down.

Again PURE speculation on my part mainly to support my view we need a EW wave 2 up then the massive 3 down. 

We need a new low first though :)

I am thinking the same way, the market has been rallying based on the hope of the fed. Can the fed shock and awe, maybe, but then that's another bullet gone out of their rapidly decreasing arsenal. With the fed out of the way, what's the next hope for the bulls with Greece not resolved? Europe then becomes front and center with not much to look forward too. My 2 cents :)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=5&b=5&g=0&id=p39710680085&a=239854595&listNum=1

Apple building some energy here, respect the break of the trendline....

Possible ED, enough to for me to buy a few calls... May@44

I've seen that before when the site was down for some reason or another, it should be back shortly....

1:00 eastern, since it options expiry bought a few contracts at $10 each out of the money calls and puts could be a violitile move......

Weird, now back to even, was that way for a while and on every quote system I could find, sorry about the false alarm....

Wow, I know about the tail issues, but seriously you'd expect a dreamliner to crash for that kind of result, but I see nothing other than the tail....