Matt pointed out with his great charts that the 38% retracement
of the move up in the dollar is at 83.16. About 4:50AM
EST on 7/15, and it's finally pulled back close to it
at 83.18, just barely above that level. Of course it
could reach or surpass it later today, but if the dollar
finds support at or near this fib level and reverses up, could help
a pullback in the market. Since the market seems to be helped
by dollar drops, the reverse should be true, as Matt points
out.
short term, possibly through the end of the day, and
maybe into tomorrow, he's right, it's bullish. The RSI
and 14,3 stochastics turned back up on the SPX 15 min. chart, and
down on the VIX 15.
he's mentioned to me or in the forum before, he looks for
scalps, not necessarily swings, that's why he said taking it for a
possible bounce into the close. Sometimes makes a few cents,
and sells at say 36.25-36.50, more if possible of course, but gets
what he can quick on scalps on I'm guessing several thousand
shares, and it adds up.
This finally has broken below 80 too with the 144,3 sto at the
top for an exit/short entry. In the short term, the 14,3
stochastics could turn back up and get a small bounce, like to see
them all crossing at the same time.
Technicals are weakening, and FOMC just came out and said
financial markets may have weakness with Euro crisis, or something
similar. Also noticed Rick Santelli saying treasuries are
forecasting a drop, 10 year & others went down, one a
basis point.
Broke through channel it's been in for almost a week, look for
14, 3 stochastics to turn back up to re-test channel then 144,3
stochastics to break below 80 for confirmation.
I'm looking at this chart too to go short, will update when
copied and pasted and refreshed, for the 144,3 stochastics crossing
above 20 for the first time in over a week, and for the other
shorter stochastics-14,3 and others, and MACD to turn up from the
bottom too at the same time.
And it just did while I was posting, and RSI bounced off 50
too.
Just looking for some educational explanation while the market
is boringly bouncing in this 3 point range. I can see clearly
the neg. MACD div. pointed out after mid-June, the price was
higher, and the MACD came back and touched the EMA at a lower
point.
However, both times the market has reversed positively in the
last month or so, on June 8th and the beginning of July, there was
no pos. div. on the MACD, it just reversed and took off upward,
didn't come near the EMA. So if we're watching this 60 min.
chart and waiting on divergences, and it's clear they happen given
the neg. one, how come there was no pos. div. both times, no lower
price where the MACD touched the EMA again at a higher point?
The MACD was at it's lowest at the lowest price both times, unlike
the neg. example. Any educational tips on this, Matt or
Steve? Thanks.
The MACD was almost through the zero line and RSI almost through
50 on the recent 2-3 points down, 144 stochastics still
needs to get through 20 and hold, has been underneath for over 4,
most of the last 5 days.
On the SPX 60 min. chart though on my platform, it seems to
still be in wave 3, no divergence on the MACD, this
consolidation and any minor pullback may be wave 4, could be a push
up with the futures Tue. AM to the 61.8% retracement a few points
higher for wave 5 and finally that MACD div., imo.
I'm in north FL now, but grew up in south FL and have long been
a Miami Heat fan. We kept Dwayne Wade and got Chris Bosh and
the #1 prize-Lebron James. So we got the #1, #2 and #3 free
agents available this year, 2 of the top 3 players in the game in
James and Wade (Kobe still may be #2), a superstar power forward in
Bosh who just had his best scoring and rebounding year, and all are
28 or under and great passers too, in their prime. Have to
figure at least 2 championships if they stay healthy at playoff
time, maybe 3 to 5.
This guy has good trade set-ups within a free newsletter
including charts of the day to an e-mail address
Monday-Thursday evenings. Try and wait for pullbacks-bull or
bear flags or wedges to enter, depending on if they're long or
short set-ups. And he shows only daily charts,
look at the recommendations on multiple timeframes for divergences
and with stochastics to get a good entry on a lower
timeframe from a triangle or wedge pullback on the daily
chart.
Someone helped me with a great tip this week. They
said to wait until everything is aligned together coming from an
overbought or oversold point. For example, there were times
over the last week on the SPX or ERX 15 min. charts,
where the 60,3 and longer stochastics were crossing above 20 from
oversold, but the 14,3 stochastics was overbought and the RSI
was near the top. So those longer stochastics crossed up
then back down at least once when everything wasn't aligned, but
when it finally took off and held, the RSI and 14, 3 stochastics
had come back to the bottom, all indicators were aligned
together and turned up from under or near oversold
simultaneously. I'm taking from it that there are going to be
hundreds or thousands of possible charts or trades each year, but
to narrow it down to only taking the ones where divergence lines up
on faster and slower RSI and MACD, and mainly when shorter and
longer stochastics with the RSI and MACD all align
together and move in the same direction from either oversold or
overbought at the same time. Then the chances of
a profitable trade are greatly increased.
have seen this guy before and he's very good, Carter
something. Said if there is more follow through to
the upside tomorrow for another 10-15 points on the SPX, should
sell aggressively. I'm sure he sees that gap at 1071-75 and
the fib retracements, explains if to the laymen on the show that
when it gets back to that level where it gapped down from, tons of
investors will be so happy it got back to there, there will be a
flood of supply (selling) at that point. We would have to see
confirming divergence and stochastics, other indicators before
going short. He also said when the market is down in Jan. and
June like in 2010, which has happened 26 times in the last 100
years, the market is down 21 of those times for the year.
just as fehro showed the VIX 30 min. bullish falling wedge
forming, the SPX is forming a bearish rising wedge on the 15, 30
and 60 min charts. Also the 38% retracement of the move down
over the last couple weeks is 1057, although as Steve pointed out
earlier, it could push up to the 50% level above 1071 and fill the
gap between 1071-75.
here's the eurjpy 1 minute chart, it's showing neg. MACD
divergence, and the dollar has been rallying the last few
minutes. Trying to make the link not clickable, if so, just
copy and paste into your address bar and click. If not, and
it brings up a page that says "visit stockcharts.com to see this
page", then copy or cut the address from the address bar-it's the
address for the chart, and paste into a new window or tab, then
click on the arrows a couple times, and it will come up.
After you copy and paste the address and it comes up, please label
and save it to your favorites or bookmarks for the future.
for weakness in the markets. Also the EURUSD is in a
rising wedge, with neg. divergence on the 5 and 15 min. charts, and
the dollar is getting a small rally after dropping half a cent over
the last hour and a half.
"If you are still unable to receive CBOE index data (e.g.
$SPX.X, $VIX.X, etc.) or TradeStation calculated index data ($TICK,
$TRIN, etc.), please disconect from the TradeStation Network and
reconnect".
Good trade, dallassteve. After gapping up and hanging
there for half an hour, ERX, USO, and UNG are taking off to the
upside. The dollar has pulled way back the last few minutes
coincidentally. Not sure what's going on with gold or
GDX. Gold pulled back this AM to under 1200, but GDX gapped
up then pulled way back, trying to rally a little the last few
minutes, probably also coinciding with the dollar drop.
I was really looking forward to Matt's educational information
on "how he uses stochastics" we were alerted last week or more that
he would probably put up this past weekend. Even mentioned
that would be one of the things worked on last Friday when away
writing things instead of trading or on the blog. Kept
checking back to see if it had been posted throughout the weekend,
to learn from, to practice and look for examples. Are
you almost finished with that and the other educational pieces you
were working on Matt? Thanks for any update on the info.
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Dollar finally at 38% fib
US Dollar and S&P
Posted by beth on 15th of Jul 2010 at 04:56 am
Matt pointed out with his great charts that the 38% retracement of the move up in the dollar is at 83.16. About 4:50AM EST on 7/15, and it's finally pulled back close to it at 83.18, just barely above that level. Of course it could reach or surpass it later today, but if the dollar finds support at or near this fib level and reverses up, could help a pullback in the market. Since the market seems to be helped by dollar drops, the reverse should be true, as Matt points out.
very short term
SSO Long @ 36
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 03:27 pm
short term, possibly through the end of the day, and maybe into tomorrow, he's right, it's bullish. The RSI and 14,3 stochastics turned back up on the SPX 15 min. chart, and down on the VIX 15.
for scalp, not swing
SSO Long @ 36
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 02:51 pm
he's mentioned to me or in the forum before, he looks for scalps, not necessarily swings, that's why he said taking it for a possible bounce into the close. Sometimes makes a few cents, and sells at say 36.25-36.50, more if possible of course, but gets what he can quick on scalps on I'm guessing several thousand shares, and it adds up.
ERX breaking down 144 sto too
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 02:28 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=ERX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&i=p57799682602&a=203117413&r=2686
This finally has broken below 80 too with the 144,3 sto at the top for an exit/short entry. In the short term, the 14,3 stochastics could turn back up and get a small bounce, like to see them all crossing at the same time.
Both tech. and bad news
What?
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 02:15 pm
Technicals are weakening, and FOMC just came out and said financial markets may have weakness with Euro crisis, or something similar. Also noticed Rick Santelli saying treasuries are forecasting a drop, 10 year & others went down, one a basis point.
SPX 15 Broke Channel
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 02:12 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=11&i=p10991937428&a=191967918&r=3090
Broke through channel it's been in for almost a week, look for 14, 3 stochastics to turn back up to re-test channel then 144,3 stochastics to break below 80 for confirmation.
15 min. VIX 144 crossed
Posted by beth on 14th of Jul 2010 at 01:51 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&i=p24091931059&a=150915408&r=2538
I'm looking at this chart too to go short, will update when copied and pasted and refreshed, for the 144,3 stochastics crossing above 20 for the first time in over a week, and for the other shorter stochastics-14,3 and others, and MACD to turn up from the bottom too at the same time.
And it just did while I was posting, and RSI bounced off 50 too.
negative divergence
60 min SPX and 60 period stochastics
Posted by beth on 13th of Jul 2010 at 10:09 am
Seems like some neg. div. is finally starting to form on the RSI and MACD on the 60 min. chart.
No Pos. MACD Div. on 60 min. SPX chart
Posted by beth on 12th of Jul 2010 at 04:01 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&i=p84063659240&a=191856806&r=9598
Just looking for some educational explanation while the market is boringly bouncing in this 3 point range. I can see clearly the neg. MACD div. pointed out after mid-June, the price was higher, and the MACD came back and touched the EMA at a lower point.
However, both times the market has reversed positively in the last month or so, on June 8th and the beginning of July, there was no pos. div. on the MACD, it just reversed and took off upward, didn't come near the EMA. So if we're watching this 60 min. chart and waiting on divergences, and it's clear they happen given the neg. one, how come there was no pos. div. both times, no lower price where the MACD touched the EMA again at a higher point? The MACD was at it's lowest at the lowest price both times, unlike the neg. example. Any educational tips on this, Matt or Steve? Thanks.
VIX 15 minute
VIX 30 min
Posted by beth on 12th of Jul 2010 at 03:23 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&i=p24091931059&a=150915408&r=2538
The MACD was almost through the zero line and RSI almost through 50 on the recent 2-3 points down, 144 stochastics still needs to get through 20 and hold, has been underneath for over 4, most of the last 5 days.
On the SPX 60 min. chart though on my platform, it seems to still be in wave 3, no divergence on the MACD, this consolidation and any minor pullback may be wave 4, could be a push up with the futures Tue. AM to the 61.8% retracement a few points higher for wave 5 and finally that MACD div., imo.
off topic-TRIFECTA!
Posted by beth on 9th of Jul 2010 at 07:56 am
I'm in north FL now, but grew up in south FL and have long been a Miami Heat fan. We kept Dwayne Wade and got Chris Bosh and the #1 prize-Lebron James. So we got the #1, #2 and #3 free agents available this year, 2 of the top 3 players in the game in James and Wade (Kobe still may be #2), a superstar power forward in Bosh who just had his best scoring and rebounding year, and all are 28 or under and great passers too, in their prime. Have to figure at least 2 championships if they stay healthy at playoff time, maybe 3 to 5.
Technical Trader free charts
Posted by beth on 9th of Jul 2010 at 07:08 am
http://www.thetechtrader.com/chartofday/
This guy has good trade set-ups within a free newsletter including charts of the day to an e-mail address Monday-Thursday evenings. Try and wait for pullbacks-bull or bear flags or wedges to enter, depending on if they're long or short set-ups. And he shows only daily charts, look at the recommendations on multiple timeframes for divergences and with stochastics to get a good entry on a lower timeframe from a triangle or wedge pullback on the daily chart.
Someone helped me with a great tip this week. They said to wait until everything is aligned together coming from an overbought or oversold point. For example, there were times over the last week on the SPX or ERX 15 min. charts, where the 60,3 and longer stochastics were crossing above 20 from oversold, but the 14,3 stochastics was overbought and the RSI was near the top. So those longer stochastics crossed up then back down at least once when everything wasn't aligned, but when it finally took off and held, the RSI and 14, 3 stochastics had come back to the bottom, all indicators were aligned together and turned up from under or near oversold simultaneously. I'm taking from it that there are going to be hundreds or thousands of possible charts or trades each year, but to narrow it down to only taking the ones where divergence lines up on faster and slower RSI and MACD, and mainly when shorter and longer stochastics with the RSI and MACD all align together and move in the same direction from either oversold or overbought at the same time. Then the chances of a profitable trade are greatly increased.
tech analyst on CNBC
Posted by beth on 7th of Jul 2010 at 06:33 pm
have seen this guy before and he's very good, Carter something. Said if there is more follow through to the upside tomorrow for another 10-15 points on the SPX, should sell aggressively. I'm sure he sees that gap at 1071-75 and the fib retracements, explains if to the laymen on the show that when it gets back to that level where it gapped down from, tons of investors will be so happy it got back to there, there will be a flood of supply (selling) at that point. We would have to see confirming divergence and stochastics, other indicators before going short. He also said when the market is down in Jan. and June like in 2010, which has happened 26 times in the last 100 years, the market is down 21 of those times for the year.
spx bearish rising wedge
Posted by beth on 7th of Jul 2010 at 03:29 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=11&i=p10991937428&a=191967918&r=3090
just as fehro showed the VIX 30 min. bullish falling wedge forming, the SPX is forming a bearish rising wedge on the 15, 30 and 60 min charts. Also the 38% retracement of the move down over the last couple weeks is 1057, although as Steve pointed out earlier, it could push up to the 50% level above 1071 and fill the gap between 1071-75.
eurjpy pulling back, dollar rallying
Posted by beth on 7th of Jul 2010 at 02:50 pm
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XEU:$XJY&p=1&b=1&g=0&i=p45237379498&a=200279160&r=4217
here's the eurjpy 1 minute chart, it's showing neg. MACD divergence, and the dollar has been rallying the last few minutes. Trying to make the link not clickable, if so, just copy and paste into your address bar and click. If not, and it brings up a page that says "visit stockcharts.com to see this page", then copy or cut the address from the address bar-it's the address for the chart, and paste into a new window or tab, then click on the arrows a couple times, and it will come up. After you copy and paste the address and it comes up, please label and save it to your favorites or bookmarks for the future.
watch eurjpy 1 min and VIX
Posted by beth on 6th of Jul 2010 at 11:09 am
I'd still keep an eye on the EURJPY 1 minute chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XEU:$XJY&p=1&b=1&g=0&i=p45237379498&a=200279160&r=4217
and the VIX 15 min. chart, for a drop in the first one, and a bounce in this VIX chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&i=p24091931059&a=150915408&r=2538
for weakness in the markets. Also the EURUSD is in a rising wedge, with neg. divergence on the 5 and 15 min. charts, and the dollar is getting a small rally after dropping half a cent over the last hour and a half.
tradestation
Tradestation Data Problems?
Posted by beth on 6th of Jul 2010 at 10:42 am
Finally a Message Center update @ 10:13am:
"If you are still unable to receive CBOE index data (e.g. $SPX.X, $VIX.X, etc.) or TradeStation calculated index data ($TICK, $TRIN, etc.), please disconect from the TradeStation Network and reconnect".
Tradestation Data Problems?
Posted by beth on 6th of Jul 2010 at 10:19 am
Tradestation is still on holiday too. They don't have any new data for SPX, VIX, TICK, TRIN, Advance/Decline, and several other things this AM.
good trade
ERX from watchlist
Posted by beth on 6th of Jul 2010 at 10:12 am
Good trade, dallassteve. After gapping up and hanging there for half an hour, ERX, USO, and UNG are taking off to the upside. The dollar has pulled way back the last few minutes coincidentally. Not sure what's going on with gold or GDX. Gold pulled back this AM to under 1200, but GDX gapped up then pulled way back, trying to rally a little the last few minutes, probably also coinciding with the dollar drop.
Educational Info?
Posted by beth on 6th of Jul 2010 at 09:55 am
I was really looking forward to Matt's educational information on "how he uses stochastics" we were alerted last week or more that he would probably put up this past weekend. Even mentioned that would be one of the things worked on last Friday when away writing things instead of trading or on the blog. Kept checking back to see if it had been posted throughout the weekend, to learn from, to practice and look for examples. Are you almost finished with that and the other educational pieces you were working on Matt? Thanks for any update on the info.