Posted by bbrodeur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 11:44 am
please forgive an ignorant Canadian, but if USO is single long
on crude oil, and DXO is double long, why is US down 5% and dxo is
also down 5%? should not DXO be down 10%? Can someone please
explain this? thanks
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 05:29 pm
Matt do you have any info on backtesting the DTO you have
mentioned the last couple of days? Or the QLD that is on the
"mechanical systems" page but I can't find any reference to any
backtesting on the blog going back to August.
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 12:11 pm
i know a bit about U stocks. Uranium has made a decent bottom in
the last few months, not making lower lows with the rest of the
market. the problem is most of the producing companies do not make
a lot of profit and of course the non producing ones are in big
trouble in this environment as it is so hard to raise money. LAM,
UEx, MGA all have nice sized deposits but are years away from
production. They would need tons of money to ever go into
production. at the best of times they would need to either take on
a lot of debt or dilute the share structure significantly so in
this recession / credit crisis i would not touch them. That being
said they all tripled the last week of december on a James Dines
promo. i personally would not touch them because when the promo
ends and the next wave down comes they will probably all make new
lows. that being said who knows how long the current promotion will
last.
DNN is a much better play as it is producing and is down from
over $15 to around $1. that being said they have never actually
turned a profit and just completed a bought deal financing
around $1.50 cdn. hard to say if it will go up much or not from
here.
i have noticed that UUU.to has a nice rising trendline and holds
up nicely on down days. with the financing complete on DNN they may
be able to do the same.
the large producers like Cameco may one day take a stab at the
juniors but at these low prices and tough credit markets even for
seniors if i were them i would buy UUU or DNN as they are already
producing and have some nice non producing assets.
last comment is that UEX has a world class high grade deposit
near Cameco. again i don't know when if ever that will go into
production or how they will ever pay for it so for the next 6-12
months I would not buy it. Good luck with whatever you decide to do
but definitely I would not hold for long. If you buy one and make
some money sell it as I am confident whenever the final wave down
that Matt and Steve are predicting comes these will all make new
lows or at least retest them as none of them even the producers
make any profits.
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 11:00 pm
Thanks for coming up with this DTO system Matt. Is there any way
your Ninja Trader can give us some backtesting results?
Also on your post today regarding the mechanical systems you
said there is an End of Day Sale system for QLD. Any backtesting
info you can give us there?
And lastly, I hope you will find some sort of system for GDX as
I am convinced it is as volatile as it gets and any sort of
consistent structure that can be found intraday on that subindex
must be very profitable.
Thanks for all your work on this site keep it up I think it is
great!
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 02:09 pm
theblack line is curling up and is below 20. if i am reading
this right the market is as short term oversold now as it was
overbought last week at the highs. am i reading this right??
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 01:26 pm
i want to start this off by saying I love the mechanical
systems. I traded srs and skf last week and made some nice profits
- thanks.
the frustration i have with them is that they do not
catch a move that lasts multiple days as the very nature of
them is for the fast to move above or below the slow, so the
initial momentum is caught, but nothing after that after selling
EOD. As we have seen the last 2 months most moves come in 3-5
day cycles. i understand Matt has backtested these and the results
are much better for not holding overnight, that being said i don't
see how that works in these 3-5 day cycles. from dec.26 - jan 6
there was a very nice move up, since then there has been a very
nice move down. i wonder what system is out there (would be nice to
find it...) that catches these moves up and down that last for a
few days...if anybody has one please post it!
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 01:04 pm
thanks matt for making that a page to go to on the website.
this is the first i have heard of the QLD system. Could you
please post on this page you are developing the backtesting results
of the QLD system? thanks
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 12:40 pm
GLD made new low of day a few minutes ago but GDX did not. I see
this as a positive divergence may be putting in a low for a few
days here if MAtt is right about USD going lower
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 10:10 am
according to Matt's dynamic charts this indicator is now as
oversold as it was at theNovember lows, down from 90's to 70's -
market should be due for a bounce on this indicator should it
not??
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 09:53 am
Matt, while you are posting some extra dynamic charts, could you
post the GDX chart you put up on your weekly newsletter? I don't
have any other way of knowing if your important signals hold such
as:
60 period stochastics have to stay above 80
GDX- Gold ratio trendline has to stay up
I thought US dollar was in a down wave? GOLD sure not acting
like it...I own some Gold stocks wondering if i should sell. darn
bad move buying friday when it looked like the market was going to
turn up
i am convinced that gdx is the most volatile etf we follow. has
anyone here found a good mechanical buy/sell signal for it? whether
it be sell at end of day or hold for a few days, this one is an
excellent trader and if there is any sort of pattern to its
volatility we could all profit greatly from it.
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srs 6 minute
Posted by bbrodeur on 15th of Jan 2009 at 02:03 pm
did it just have a short?
NAAD
Posted by bbrodeur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 04:38 pm
Matt did the NAAD trendline breakdown?? thanks
srs 6 minute system now going short?
Posted by bbrodeur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 03:05 pm
can anyone confirm that the 6 min srs system is now short srs? thanks
dxo vs USO
Posted by bbrodeur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 11:44 am
please forgive an ignorant Canadian, but if USO is single long on crude oil, and DXO is double long, why is US down 5% and dxo is also down 5%? should not DXO be down 10%? Can someone please explain this? thanks
dow down 6 days in a row now
Posted by bbrodeur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 11:12 am
dow down 10% in 6 straight days. is that some sort of record?
DTO/QLD backtesting info
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 05:29 pm
Matt do you have any info on backtesting the DTO you have mentioned the last couple of days? Or the QLD that is on the "mechanical systems" page but I can't find any reference to any backtesting on the blog going back to August.
srs crossing back up now?
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 01:49 pm
now i have srs on the 8 minute only 20 cents away from crossing back up on the 71 minute. i hate the whipsaw days!
skf 6 minute
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 12:25 pm
i have the 29/86 only about 20 cents apart now, may get a cross down for a short skf in the next hour
re Uranium stocks
uranium stocks
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 12:11 pm
i know a bit about U stocks. Uranium has made a decent bottom in the last few months, not making lower lows with the rest of the market. the problem is most of the producing companies do not make a lot of profit and of course the non producing ones are in big trouble in this environment as it is so hard to raise money. LAM, UEx, MGA all have nice sized deposits but are years away from production. They would need tons of money to ever go into production. at the best of times they would need to either take on a lot of debt or dilute the share structure significantly so in this recession / credit crisis i would not touch them. That being said they all tripled the last week of december on a James Dines promo. i personally would not touch them because when the promo ends and the next wave down comes they will probably all make new lows. that being said who knows how long the current promotion will last.
DNN is a much better play as it is producing and is down from over $15 to around $1. that being said they have never actually turned a profit and just completed a bought deal financing around $1.50 cdn. hard to say if it will go up much or not from here.
i have noticed that UUU.to has a nice rising trendline and holds up nicely on down days. with the financing complete on DNN they may be able to do the same.
the large producers like Cameco may one day take a stab at the juniors but at these low prices and tough credit markets even for seniors if i were them i would buy UUU or DNN as they are already producing and have some nice non producing assets.
last comment is that UEX has a world class high grade deposit near Cameco. again i don't know when if ever that will go into production or how they will ever pay for it so for the next 6-12 months I would not buy it. Good luck with whatever you decide to do but definitely I would not hold for long. If you buy one and make some money sell it as I am confident whenever the final wave down that Matt and Steve are predicting comes these will all make new lows or at least retest them as none of them even the producers make any profits.
srs 6 minute mechanical system
Posted by bbrodeur on 13th of Jan 2009 at 10:54 am
i have the system very close to shorting srs here. do others here have the 8 minute sma at 64.04 and the 71 minute at 63.90?
DTO , QLD and GDX
TICK is below -1000 -- market is way oversold intraday. ...
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 11:00 pm
Thanks for coming up with this DTO system Matt. Is there any way your Ninja Trader can give us some backtesting results?
Also on your post today regarding the mechanical systems you said there is an End of Day Sale system for QLD. Any backtesting info you can give us there?
And lastly, I hope you will find some sort of system for GDX as I am convinced it is as volatile as it gets and any sort of consistent structure that can be found intraday on that subindex must be very profitable.
Thanks for all your work on this site keep it up I think it is great!
sto 5,3,3
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 02:09 pm
theblack line is curling up and is below 20. if i am reading this right the market is as short term oversold now as it was overbought last week at the highs. am i reading this right??
mechanical systems theory
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 01:26 pm
i want to start this off by saying I love the mechanical systems. I traded srs and skf last week and made some nice profits - thanks.
the frustration i have with them is that they do not catch a move that lasts multiple days as the very nature of them is for the fast to move above or below the slow, so the initial momentum is caught, but nothing after that after selling EOD. As we have seen the last 2 months most moves come in 3-5 day cycles. i understand Matt has backtested these and the results are much better for not holding overnight, that being said i don't see how that works in these 3-5 day cycles. from dec.26 - jan 6 there was a very nice move up, since then there has been a very nice move down. i wonder what system is out there (would be nice to find it...) that catches these moves up and down that last for a few days...if anybody has one please post it!
re mechanical buy systems
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 01:04 pm
thanks matt for making that a page to go to on the website.
this is the first i have heard of the QLD system. Could you please post on this page you are developing the backtesting results of the QLD system? thanks
GLD/GDX positive divergence
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 12:40 pm
GLD made new low of day a few minutes ago but GDX did not. I see this as a positive divergence may be putting in a low for a few days here if MAtt is right about USD going lower
sto 5,3,3
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 10:10 am
according to Matt's dynamic charts this indicator is now as oversold as it was at theNovember lows, down from 90's to 70's - market should be due for a bounce on this indicator should it not??
GDX Dynamic chart
Posted by bbrodeur on 12th of Jan 2009 at 09:53 am
Matt, while you are posting some extra dynamic charts, could you post the GDX chart you put up on your weekly newsletter? I don't have any other way of knowing if your important signals hold such as:
60 period stochastics have to stay above 80
GDX- Gold ratio trendline has to stay up
I thought US dollar was in a down wave? GOLD sure not acting like it...I own some Gold stocks wondering if i should sell. darn bad move buying friday when it looked like the market was going to turn up
gdx
Posted by bbrodeur on 9th of Jan 2009 at 04:18 pm
did the stochastics on GDX go below 60 today? i hope not as I bought a bit of HGU today thinking the US dollar is having a wave down. we shall see...
Matt I notice you took AUY off the watch list along with GDX, yet you expect a wave down in the USD??
gdx-gld
gdx mechanical system
Posted by bbrodeur on 9th of Jan 2009 at 12:46 pm
what are the parameters for the 15 minutes? i knew you had the daily one that has been fantastic..
gdx mechanical system
Posted by bbrodeur on 9th of Jan 2009 at 12:40 pm
i am convinced that gdx is the most volatile etf we follow. has anyone here found a good mechanical buy/sell signal for it? whether it be sell at end of day or hold for a few days, this one is an excellent trader and if there is any sort of pattern to its volatility we could all profit greatly from it.