Target $30 GLP-1 Maintence 

Charting Omada’s margin trajectory relative to Hinge shows the company is very much on the right track. One of the biggest pushbacks we hear on OMDA is the company’s slim margins today. A common question is how much does scale play in the margin differential between Omada Health and Hinge Health. We looked at how efficient the companies were running at similar revenue bases (Hinge 2023 revenue of $293mn vs. Omada 2025 revenue of $260mn) to shed light on this key debate – see Exhibit 3. In addition to driving upside to revenue (2026 guidance calls for 25% y/y growth and we estimate 23% growth in 2027E), key levers for margin expansion at Omada are: 1) Keeping care team headcount relatively flat as the company further flexes the use of technology 2) Bringing down G&A as a percent of revenue as the business scales (of note, this metric is currently running 500 bps above that of Hinge) and 3) GLP-1 Prescribing provides a 2.5x revenue uplift over standard GLP-1 Care Track at high incremental margins, while also helping to broaden its funnel of multi-condition sales.

Interesting IPO.  Starting a spec position 

XE is a leading designer of advanced nuclear technology and manufacturer of advanced nuclear fuel. We see the case for the company to deploy ~20 GW by 2040, supported by a strong technology proposition, capital-light business model, and excellent partnerships. Initiating OW.

Initiating at Overweight with a price target of $41/share. We average two valuation approaches to arrive at a $41/share target price, implying a +60% upside. Our base case embeds conservative core assumptions: 20 GW of reactors deployed by 2040 (very small relative to power demand growth in the US alone), first project online in 2033, break-even EBITDA in 2030, and EBITDA margins rising to ~50% in the mid-2030s, similar to comparable fuel, services, and licensing business models. The stock has risen +11% since the IPO at $23, but at an implied 6.8x 2029 EV/Sales, we think the market is still missing deployment opportunities, market share gains across the SMR industry, and a wide 2.1x bull-bear spread, with probability leaning toward the upside. We think the company has a strong technology and commercial proposition, making it one of the key players to help shape the next generation of nuclear reactors.

OKLO has a reactor test deadline by July 4

Energy shocks have become more frequent making energy and economic security critical in an AI world. US$5 trillion-plus investment needs should kick-start a golden age in dependable energy investments to secure AI, food and tech supply chains after a decade of underinvestment. An investment supercycle unlocking US$9 trillion in value beckons.

Energy markets may be global but energy insecurity is always local, with all major economies now focused on the same issue . Given that Asia imports roughly 36% of its energy, we see the need for US$5.5 trillion of energy investments over the next five years, which would cut import dependence by nearly a fifth . This would also need US$1.2 trillion of new investments to help increase Asia's energy self dependence 100bps on average in Asia by 2030. While we believe Asia will never be fully energy independent, it can reduce its dependence on single-supply sources and diversify its energy needs, both in terms of importing nations and fuel type. We believe spending growth will focus on fossil fuels and dependable energy sources – attracting 2x more annual spend than in the recent past. Renewables may see a plateau in spending after more than doubling over the past decade, as power grids will need to improve with ~US$1 trillion of new investments before the adoption curve for renewables inflects further.

long RKLB, MDA,LIN, ASTS, ATI and some CRS 

SATS is a weird collection of assets and liabilities.  Spectrum licenses, satellites, wireless infrastructure, $30B debt, FCC obligations, legacy Dish baggage, and SpaceX optionality.  the ASTS case while high risk is more clear

CNBC 3:05PM Tom Petty’s lawyers preparing statement and news conference.  

NVIDIA posted numbers higher than our estimates and our preview, with a clean beat and raise on all metrics, with a significant Vera Rubin ramp ahead that should prove out their contention that NVDA hardware leads in AI factory economics. Best value in semis, remain OW/Top Pick. Target $288

• No big surprises, given elevated expectations, but we continue to like the setup. Market share rhetoric is likely hitting a low point, with Vera Rubin providing an answer to key competitive questions, and understanding that the elevated benchmark weighting presents certain headwinds, but valuation at about half of AI peers really does stand out.

Measuring market share is tricky, and not particularly meaningful. Everyone is supply constrained, and while that brings NVIDIA significant benefits, as the company most aggressively managing the supply chain, it brings challenges as well. $13 bn of sequential revenue growth this quarter is as much revenue as the entire revenue of the 3rd biggest logic company in our coverage, and the company would appear to need most of the capacity for its served nodes next year.

The fundamental debate should be: can NVIDIA deliver on its claim that the lowest cost per token happens on NVIDIA hardware? We think that they have consistently done that, and that they can continue to do that. The goal posts are always moving, and we are constantly hearing about ASICs or competing chips that offer better TCO, but those are invariably comparisons of competitors' new products such as AMD MI455 or TPU v8, with NVIDIA's current products, despite the fact that Vera Rubin will likely have general availability before either of those.

That doesn't mean the comparisons are irrelevant, of course, as $400 bn run rate of AI capital investment cannot be fully satisfied with Vera Rubin for several quarters, so Blackwell vs. other people's next gen products is still an important part of the consideration set. But we believe the NVIDIA truism that lower cost silicon has not been proven to deliver lower cost per tokens, until proven otherwise, and that having the best in class capability is a considerable advantage for customers that want the longest useful life.

The resegmentation tells a compelling story about strong growth above and beyond frontier model developers, though we heard mixed reactions from investors. Our focus will remain on data center growth overall, and we are less concerned about subsegments below that line, but the split between hyperscale and other customers shows that roughly half of the business is outside of the concentrated hyperscale environment and growing nicely. Hyperscale growth of 116% would be even higher without the higher China year ago #s. Concerns that upside came mostly from networking seem mostly irrelevant to us.

Meanwhile, claims of revenue leadership in CY26 server CPUs reverberatesthrough the suddenly overcrowded server CPU trade. The $20 bn target for CPU this year would put them right at the cusp of market leadership - we have Intel data center revenues slightly higher, but that includes some networking, and AMD just below. We do think the $20 bn includes head node CPUs (i.e. delivered on the GPU cards), which counts but is a bit easier of a sale that is not incrementally bad for x86 competitors, but it also has to include meaningful encroachment into standalone server racks for agentic workloads. We note that the company had prior agreements to sell standalone Vera to Coreweave (covered by Keith Weiss) and Meta (covered by Brian Nowak), but then more recently announced standalone shipments to, among others, Oracle (also covered by Keith Weiss). We are excited for this opportunity and think that NVIDIA's strong procurement will put them in a very strong position in a supply constrained environment. We expect to hear more about this at the Computex/GTC keynote in early June.

Other important highlights:

• Significant cash return. Dividends are up to $1 annual run rate - about 0.5% yield - and an $80 bn buyback.
• Vera Rubin tracking for 3Q delivery. Given constant anecdotes of delays, this timing - at the earlier end of prior 2H commentary - should provide some relief
• $119 bn in purchase commitments, up almost $30 bn from last qtr, with $95 bn of that used in production in the next 3 qtrs - which would minimize concerns about supply constraints vs. current #s.
• Gross margins slightly better. While the company has consistently talked about mid 70s gross margins, they have also talked about 75% as a limiter, so guidance of 75% amid component price increases should be a relief.

Details on the Quarter: April revenue of $81.615bn (up 19.8% q/q and 95.1% y/y) was above the Street at $78.907bn and our estimate of $79.264bn. By segment, Data Center revenue of $75.249bn was up 20.8% q/q and 92.4% y/y, within datacenter Hyperscale increased 12% q/q and 115% y/y with ACIE up 31% q/q and 75% y/y, Edge was up 9.6% q/q and 28.7% y/y to $6,369bn. Gross margin of 75.0% was in-line with the Street and 0.1% below our estimate of 75.0% and 75.1%, respectively. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beat both the Street and our estimate of $1.75, and $1.72 respectively.

NVIDIA guided for an $10bn sequential revenue increase;to $91bn at the midpoint for July (up 11.5% q/q and 94.7% y/y), which came in ahead of the Street and our estimate of $87.293bn and $87.880bn, respectively, with data center once again the biggest contributor to growth. The company guided gross margin to 75.0%, compared to the Street at 74.5% and our estimate of 75.1%.

Raising estimates: We are increasing our revenue estimates for FY27 and FY28, now modeling 82.0% y/y growth and 52.4% y/y growth, respectively, vs 76.3% and 54.4% prior. For the Oct quarter, we move revenue from $99.015bn to $102.346bn and non-GAAP EPS from $2.25 to $2.34. For FY27, our revenue and non-GAAP EPS move from $380.591bn/$8.61 to $393.005.450/$8.98, and FY28 comes up to $598.809bn/$13.15 from $587.450bn/$13.11 previously.

Thoughts on the stock: Near term expectations have been high, given an obviously strong spending pattern, but market share rhetoric has been negative, given ASIC forecasts and performance claims. The reality is that the world is short compute, and that anyone who can supply compute with memory attached to it is generating material interest. But in 2026, and again in 2027, some of NVIDIA's strongest growth customers will be hyperscalers who also use ASICs, which should be pretty telling. Vera Rubin is a strong answer to that. With the sudden surge of interest in CPUs, the company's claim of revenue share leadership is quite interesting, and we'll look to get a better sense of the company's penetration into agentic standalone CPUs in the coming weeks.

We understand that the company's index benchmark can be a natural hurdle, and that perceptions of share loss may take time to diminish. But the relative valuation gap is just too wide to ignore, and to us the company's position as the most important AI chip supplier remains unassailable.

In terms of our PT, we are leaving our methodology unchanged from our prior of ~22x MW EPS ests for CY27 (FY28). On our new $13.08 MW EPS that brings the PT up to $288 vs $285 previously. ~22 MW EPS is in-line with the broader market and a discount to compute semis peers (AMD/AVGO/INTC) as high marketshare and gross margins leave limited levers for multiple expansion in the near term.

This looks solid

I moved some into VRTX target in the $600s lots of potential for this year 

BTSGSold some today but looks great l/t 

BTSG received several questions about its relatively smaller infusion business and broader biosimilar risk on its earnings and follow up calls the next day. Importantly, infusion is a small portion of BTSG's book (exact revenue is undisclosed, grouped with Specialty Pharmacy), though a segment that BTSG has recently touted for its high growth profile, noting +DD% growth in acute and in chronic in 1Q. However, the current portfolio is skewed more towards acute, and BTSG is focused on growing more in infusible drugs on the chronic side than it is injectable or subq, and has little IG therapy. Given its size and exposure, it seems less likely that BTSG would end up in a situation similar to OPCH, and it will likely be mindful of potential drug exposure as it expands its business.

We revise our BTSG estimates on incremental confidence in near term and longer term growth prospects, where we are now forecasting $810M EBITDA in '26 (from $778M prior) and $930M in '27 (from $897M prior). We are raising our PT to $62, from $48, derived from 16.5x '27 EBITDA, from 13.5x prior. Our new multiple is ~3.9x premium to the home health peer group, from ~0.7x prior, which we view as warranted as BTSG continues to solidify itself as a leader in the Specialty Pharmacy arena that can deliver consistent growth in a league above peers. Its recent Investor Day target for 15-20% organic EBITDA growth from '26-'28 was impressive and the recent momentum helps to instill further confidence in the growth profile. BTSG already addressed that the outperforming Pharmacy Solutions segment could see growth moderate (i.e. in the teens/20%s vs. 40%+ of late) but Infusion, Home & Community and Provider Services will continue to meet the LT range. M&A can also provide ample upside, with at least $2B in incremental capital availability through 2028, which could add 2-3% to EBITDA growth annually (MSe). Thus, we believe BTSG has ample runway for multiple expansion as its story becomes increasingly clear and compelling. Reiterate OW.

My core would be RKLB, MDA, FLY, KRMN then ASTS, RDW, PL spec  SIDU, LUNR.  

• Looking at starting a spec position 
• 
  
• GPCR (OW) - GPCR discussed their views on Aleni's (oral GLP1) best-in-class potential on efficacy and discontinuation rate. In particular, GPCR commented that Aleni has not yet shown a weight-loss plateau at week 44 (Ph2 data). Aleni Ph2 data will be presented at the ADA conference in June, and the upcoming Ph3 program will use 2.5mg as the starting dose. Mgmt. emphasized the importance of the amylin program, attributing ~50% of the company's value to it. We update our model to reflect 1Q results and tweak expenses (see within).

Structure Therapeutics Inc (GPCR.O)

Our $126 price target includes ~$3.46bn in risk-adjusted revenues in 2040E ($6.30bn unadjusted). We derive our price target from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis that uses a discount rate of 12.5% and a 0% terminal growth rate.

Risks to Upside

GSBR-1290 obesity data is better than anticipated and/or development timelines are accelerated.

Risks to Downside

GSBR-1290 data in obesity disappoints and/or development timelines are delayed.

I've got a spec play in my RE Basket 

Sunrise Energy Metals (OTC: SREMF, ASX: SRL) is essentially a critical minerals developer focused on scandium, nickel, and cobalt projects in Australia. Their big thesis is becoming a Western/non-China supplier of specialty metals used in aerospace, defense, EV batteries, advanced alloys, and high-performance electronics.

Pure-play scandium story in Australia. Scandium market remains tiny globally and demand has not materialized at the scale needed to justify this valuation. Retain as a watch position only — aerospace/defense upside is speculative. Weakest conviction name on this list.

Strengths

Unique scandium scarcity angle. Multi-metal asset (nickel, cobalt). Potential aerospace/defense upside if scandium demand arrives.

Weaknesses

Scandium market is still very thin. Australian explorer — not a U.S. policy beneficiary. Years from production. No analyst coverage. Weakest macro tailwind of all names here.

Bad earnings reaction but maybe forming a bottom. 

I read that hay prices have hit records across the US 

Interesting I'll check them out.  I bought back WPM and VZLA when SLV went long.  Like the VZLA chart 

High volume move on earnings 

The Oil Market

"The oil math is hard to fathom, but we’ve never been in this situation before. We’ve never had an outage anywhere near 11 to 13 million b/d. As I wrote before, none of the energy specialists disagree on the math because we used to argue over 500k b/d to 1 million b/d. Once the outage reached this size, arguing between 11, 13, or 9 million b/d becomes irrelevant. The level of demand destruction needed to balance the market will be either 4x or 6x that of the previous recession. You see, it starts to lose meaning after a while."

MDA SpaceRaising PT to $58; Maintaining OW

We raise our PT to $58 from $51 following 1Q26 results. Our PT of $58 is based on a ~3.9x EV/sales multiple and 2027 sales of ~$2bn. ~3.9x 2027 sales reflects a ~20% discount to the wider Space peer group (US-based), though space infrastructure players trade in the ~3-4x sales range. Our PT also implies a EBITDA multiple of ~20.5x on 2027E EBITDA of ~$385mn, a premium to US Defense Primes with significant Space portfolios. Our prior PT of $51 leveraged a ~3.2x multiple.

MDA is a Canada-based supplier for the global space industry, specializing in high-volume manufacturing of LEO satellites. The company benefits from increased spending in Space. A $3.7bn backlog provides important revenue visibility while a >$40bn pipeline presents notable growth opps. The stock trades at a discount to peers, and a bright catalyst path offers re-rating potential.