Posted by ruscitti on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:07 pm
Steve, how should the S&P play out from here if the move
down from mid-Jan is a wave 4 (measured from the March 09
low)? Should we start moving to the upside soon or is there
some more room to correct?
If this is a Wave 4 as you describe then it should be followed
by IMPULSIVE waves back up which has yet to occur. The move
off the SPX 1044 low shows overlap. It's still possible that your
scenario could unfold but the market has yet to show signs it's
ready to impulse back up.
All traps that propelled the market to new highs had this same
look. Non-impulsive waves meandering up and raking in the
bears. Then POOF! Off to the races. I have no
idea what happens this time, but I have the same feeling now that
I'm about to be bamboozled!
Raise your hand if you've been served on the devastating "3 of
3" thesis.
Bullish bias is only after 1090 is retaken, and 1079-1084 is a
strong resistance. The market turns around at strong resistance
points. I did believe the 1 of 3 of 3 scenario, however now I doubt
it. If something is confusing or does not make sense, just ignore
it and look at what makes sense to you!
What does the DXY chart tell you (15- and 60-minutes)? If counts
are confusing, let's keep them aside and analyze the market
breadth, $vix, volume and pivots. Under 107.00 the bias is to the
downside, yet it seems the it could be retaken soon. IMO.
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Steve, how should the S&P
Just throwing out a possible count
Posted by ruscitti on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:07 pm
Steve, how should the S&P play out from here if the move down from mid-Jan is a wave 4 (measured from the March 09 low)? Should we start moving to the upside soon or is there some more room to correct?
If this is a Wave
Posted by steve on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:10 pm
If this is a Wave 4 as you describe then it should be followed by IMPULSIVE waves back up which has yet to occur. The move off the SPX 1044 low shows overlap. It's still possible that your scenario could unfold but the market has yet to show signs it's ready to impulse back up.
All bear traps looked this way
Posted by kalinm on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:25 pm
Steve,
All traps that propelled the market to new highs had this same look. Non-impulsive waves meandering up and raking in the bears. Then POOF! Off to the races. I have no idea what happens this time, but I have the same feeling now that I'm about to be bamboozled!
Raise your hand if you've been served on the devastating "3 of 3" thesis.
Bullish bias is only after
Posted by junkie on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:38 pm
Bullish bias is only after 1090 is retaken, and 1079-1084 is a strong resistance. The market turns around at strong resistance points. I did believe the 1 of 3 of 3 scenario, however now I doubt it. If something is confusing or does not make sense, just ignore it and look at what makes sense to you!
We will adjust if necessary
Posted by steve on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:29 pm
We will adjust if necessary as I discussed last evening. I discussed the fact that so far this decline is best counted as 3 waves at this time.
What does the DXY chart
Posted by junkie on 10th of Feb 2010 at 12:18 pm
What does the DXY chart tell you (15- and 60-minutes)? If counts are confusing, let's keep them aside and analyze the market breadth, $vix, volume and pivots. Under 107.00 the bias is to the downside, yet it seems the it could be retaken soon. IMO.