while wave 5 is 'probably' not over it did make a nice 5 wave
decline off yesterday's highs. It also approximated the length of
wave 1, and took roughly 2x as long. Not to mention all the sto
seem way oversold now.
So maybe a bottom is in? Could just as easily be wave 1 of 5 of
1 but I thought I'd point out those congruences.
perhaps today was all of wave 5 of 3. this actually works quite
well as this wave 5 was a couple points more than .618 of wave 1
but the bounce from low to high yesterday (wave 4) comes out
roughly .382 (.418 actual).
then we may experience a wave 4 first retrace .236 at
1098.60 then .382 at 1106.81
would sit better with me, and I had looked at it and have it in
mind as the daily pivots 2nd support are down at 1075, which has
had me confused somewhat, we could see wave e of a flat 4 to
come perhaps.
$VIX Non confirming...
Posted by saturn6 on 27th of Jan 2010 at 10:43 am
Close to breaking...
Posted by saturn6 on 27th of Jan 2010 at 03:18 pm
Close to breaking...
Or the $SPX not going
Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2010 at 10:51 am
Or the $SPX not going low enough yet to get $VIX to confirm. The support at 1085 could break, we only started wave 5 with breaking the 1091 support.
Or wave 5 was short
Posted by perthx on 27th of Jan 2010 at 10:57 am
while wave 5 is 'probably' not over it did make a nice 5 wave decline off yesterday's highs. It also approximated the length of wave 1, and took roughly 2x as long. Not to mention all the sto seem way oversold now.
So maybe a bottom is in? Could just as easily be wave 1 of 5 of 1 but I thought I'd point out those congruences.
edit...and now look at it bounce...
Or another thought
Posted by perthx on 27th of Jan 2010 at 11:15 am
perhaps today was all of wave 5 of 3. this actually works quite well as this wave 5 was a couple points more than .618 of wave 1 but the bounce from low to high yesterday (wave 4) comes out roughly .382 (.418 actual).
then we may experience a wave 4 first retrace .236 at 1098.60 then .382 at 1106.81
Steve's 10 min SPX chart:
That thought...
Posted by saturn6 on 27th of Jan 2010 at 11:36 am
would sit better with me, and I had looked at it and have it in mind as the daily pivots 2nd support are down at 1075, which has had me confused somewhat, we could see wave e of a flat 4 to come perhaps.
My working theory is that
Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2010 at 11:28 am
My working theory is that a break out of a channel signifies wave 4. FWIW.
Usually a trendline is pearsed
Posted by junkie on 27th of Jan 2010 at 11:10 am
Usually a trendline is pearsed on a bottom. I don't see a break and a reversal yet.