Well, not necessarily. I've been short for a couple of days now,
and I'm certainly happy about it! But what I won't be saying (at
least until the 50 dma is pointing down and the $S&P can't get
over it in a meaningful way) is that the 2009 rally is over. I
won't be putting on shorts with the intent to hold for a few weeks
until that happens. And when it does, I'll likely do it on a crappy
rally. (In case you haven't noticed, the 20, 50, and 200 day
moving averages are my well-trusted advisors! They charge very
little for their advice as well.)
But if you wanna talk about crazy trades, I've got stories! I
once put the great majority of my portfolio on Hecla Mining
options! (That was before I realized that I sucked at
trading.) Fortunately for me, it worked out. Sometimes I
wonder how I survived those first few years without something
blowing up on me (unless you count the Casey/Dines
uranium bull :P).
Oh, good! This looks so far like a regular correction, which
could only last for 3-4 weeks at best and about 2 months at worst.
In early March retirement money will start flowing in, like it did
last year, which will lift markets higher again. That gives
approximately 5 more weeks, so 3 weeks down and 2 weeks up in
between.
There is one problem with moving averages: everyone knows about
them. If you glance at the GDX chart, you'll notice that it has not
touched its MA(200) and its RSI(14) at 30 for a long while. To
confuse all, I would expect a sudden dramatic drop below MA(200)
while RSI is above 30, and a swift reversal there.
We'll get more crazy trades around here when shorts are forced
to cover all of a sudden. It won't be the banks this time around,
perhaps some of the tech stocks will be good poneys to ride
overnight :-)
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Well, not necessarily. I've been
Matt/Steve -- Intermediate trend
Posted by user32 on 23rd of Jan 2010 at 09:08 pm
Well, not necessarily. I've been short for a couple of days now, and I'm certainly happy about it! But what I won't be saying (at least until the 50 dma is pointing down and the $S&P can't get over it in a meaningful way) is that the 2009 rally is over. I won't be putting on shorts with the intent to hold for a few weeks until that happens. And when it does, I'll likely do it on a crappy rally. (In case you haven't noticed, the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are my well-trusted advisors! They charge very little for their advice as well.)
But if you wanna talk about crazy trades, I've got stories! I once put the great majority of my portfolio on Hecla Mining options! (That was before I realized that I sucked at trading.) Fortunately for me, it worked out. Sometimes I wonder how I survived those first few years without something blowing up on me (unless you count the Casey/Dines uranium bull :P).
Oh, good! This looks so
Posted by junkie on 23rd of Jan 2010 at 11:14 pm
Oh, good! This looks so far like a regular correction, which could only last for 3-4 weeks at best and about 2 months at worst. In early March retirement money will start flowing in, like it did last year, which will lift markets higher again. That gives approximately 5 more weeks, so 3 weeks down and 2 weeks up in between.
There is one problem with moving averages: everyone knows about them. If you glance at the GDX chart, you'll notice that it has not touched its MA(200) and its RSI(14) at 30 for a long while. To confuse all, I would expect a sudden dramatic drop below MA(200) while RSI is above 30, and a swift reversal there.
We'll get more crazy trades around here when shorts are forced to cover all of a sudden. It won't be the banks this time around, perhaps some of the tech stocks will be good poneys to ride overnight :-)