Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4
year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the
year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad
medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the
incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the
house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally
from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15
months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought
the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
Ralph
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Presidential cycle low
2010 and 4 yr cycle lows
Posted by ralph on 11th of Jan 2010 at 07:57 pm
Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4 year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15 months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
Ralph