Haven't heard too many people talk about this anywhere.
Jack Chan (who does pretty simple TA and trend following) has
talked about this a lot in the last two weeks. He is wary of
a pullback in the markets due to this 4 yr cycle low. Not sure of
the reasons for it, or the validity of it. Anybody have any
thoughts on this?
FWIW, Jack Chan is still mostly cash (he did buy financials
recently, but sold) and bought GDX recently and will sell again by
today's close. In my time of following JC, it is very
uncharacteristic for him to sell without the trend breaking down
(which is what he did with his two most recent xlf and gdx
trades).
Only problem is this president hasn't had control of the
economy due to it being hijacked by the Fed and Wall St. In
unprecedented times maybe it will the the 3rd and fourth years when
he wakes up and realises average Joe needs the money and if the
liquidity is withdrawn from the banks then we will see the tide
going out before the tsunami.
Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4
year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the
year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad
medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the
incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the
house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally
from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15
months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought
the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
The
4 year
cycleis tied to the Presidential 4 year term. When a new
president takes office things are rough but then in the last two
years, there are stimulas pork projects thrown in the markets to
bring prosperity and jobs so that they get re-elected.
Posted by burkmere on 11th of Jan 2010 at 04:07 pm
I can't find the link to the Sy Harding article, but I believe
he said that every single time since 1916 there was a low in the
second year of the Presidential cycle which then create d agreat
buying opportunity into the third and fourth years....
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2010 and 4 yr cycle lows
Posted by kalinm on 11th of Jan 2010 at 03:28 pm
Haven't heard too many people talk about this anywhere. Jack Chan (who does pretty simple TA and trend following) has talked about this a lot in the last two weeks. He is wary of a pullback in the markets due to this 4 yr cycle low. Not sure of the reasons for it, or the validity of it. Anybody have any thoughts on this?
FWIW, Jack Chan is still mostly cash (he did buy financials recently, but sold) and bought GDX recently and will sell again by today's close. In my time of following JC, it is very uncharacteristic for him to sell without the trend breaking down (which is what he did with his two most recent xlf and gdx trades).
Only problem is this president
Posted by sobrien on 12th of Jan 2010 at 06:37 am
Only problem is this president hasn't had control of the economy due to it being hijacked by the Fed and Wall St. In unprecedented times maybe it will the the 3rd and fourth years when he wakes up and realises average Joe needs the money and if the liquidity is withdrawn from the banks then we will see the tide going out before the tsunami.
Presidential cycle low
Posted by ralph on 11th of Jan 2010 at 07:57 pm
Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4 year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15 months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
Ralph
The 4 year cycleis tied to
Posted by ditch on 11th of Jan 2010 at 03:33 pm
The 4 year cycleis tied to the Presidential 4 year term. When a new president takes office things are rough but then in the last two years, there are stimulas pork projects thrown in the markets to bring prosperity and jobs so that they get re-elected.
Presidential Cycle low
Posted by burkmere on 11th of Jan 2010 at 04:07 pm
I can't find the link to the Sy Harding article, but I believe he said that every single time since 1916 there was a low in the second year of the Presidential cycle which then create d agreat buying opportunity into the third and fourth years....