I think you've said it

    sorry no charts...

    Posted by puma on 21st of Jul 2009 at 09:00 pm

    I think you've said it very well. I've never been a conspiracy guy at all, but this market has so many earmarks of manipulation. Clearly our government wants the market up, but the Fed cannot legally intervene in the equity market like it intervenes in the bond market, so I've been thinking about how this is probably working. My own hunch is that a few soverign wealth funds (China probably, Japan maybe) have funneled very large sums to GS (which seems like it has become our de facto Treasury Department) and that gives them the ability to do things like hit the market with a 15 billion dollar futures buy at a key reversal point -- some place where you trap a lot of shorts. I think for the Chinese or Japanese or whoever, it's a win-win deal -- they are probably making a huge ROI on their GS trading account, and they are effectively working with the Fed and the Treasury to prop up our market, which is just as important to them -- a US crash pulls them down too. And they're used to propping up markets -- the Japanese have been trying to do it forever -- and we can all see how effective it's been! How long can they keep it up? Probably until it becomes painfully obvious that we are not recovering and that the banks are still choking on bad paper, etc. There is something about October that fixes the mind.

    Market Manipulation

    Posted by geotex on 21st of Jul 2009 at 09:55 pm

    The lead article in the Financial Times today might support some of your suspicions. The Chinese are deploying their Forex reserves to target international opportunities. The official quoted stated that the ostensible targets of such investment will be natural resources and commodities plays, not Wall Street opportunities. This could be disingenuous subterfuge. Maybe they are playing both ends to the middle. The Chinese and the Americans are locked in a dragon/tiger dance. The Chinese have been increasing, not decreasing their purchases of Treasuries despite the call to arms to marginalize the dollar. If they do not support the American debt structure then their exports decline and unemployment is their haunting devil. If they try to liquidate their dollar reserves they will destabilize their own portfolio of wealth. And in the process throw America into a depression, further exacerbating a downward spiral in their exports.

    It wouldn't surprise me that Geithner and Bernanke and their Chinese counterparts have had discussions on how to support their fears of runaway inflation. Supporting (manipulating) the American stock exchanges through GS and JPM and others seems no less tangible than the manipulation of the markets to support the failing banks since March by the Treasury and Fed.

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!