and this
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_24/b4135026913979.htm prove
that all we've seen is the tip of the iceberg. Alt-A and Option ARM
morgtage foreclosres are expected to be triple what the subprime
defaults have been - is that a big enough event? Also, people need
to take their money out of the markets, so that will cap it. Plus
all the new issue stock and insider selling is another cap on how
high the market can go. As for seasonality, there are plenty of
cases of June-July tops (the end of the "summer Rally").
One writer remarked that we are in the worst credit bust in
history - Bingo! That's right, and that's what is important. I see
proposals asking for money every week and the terms one can get are
almost criminal - IOW there are a lot of people desperate for cash.
The gov't can't reinflate the credit bubble now though, look at
japan since 1989. It has to run its course. You can't get expanding
earnings without an expanding economy. Even if the GDP rose by 20%
next year, S&P earnings would only be in the realm of $50 -55
>> does that make stocks cheap here? Not to me.
Re Sentiment, a lot of polls with longevity show we are not at
extremes yet, but getting there. One more manipulated econ report
could do it.
Anyway what about the technical count , for you EW gurus?
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
re Wave count
the Wave count
Posted by PA on 9th of Jun 2009 at 10:41 am
Thanks for the feedback. This was meant to be a technical question, but most of the responses were macro-based.
Re Real estate stabilizing - many articles posted here in the last week, and confirmed by this http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/printedition/2009/05/26/memskyscraper0526.html
and this http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_24/b4135026913979.htm prove that all we've seen is the tip of the iceberg. Alt-A and Option ARM morgtage foreclosres are expected to be triple what the subprime defaults have been - is that a big enough event? Also, people need to take their money out of the markets, so that will cap it. Plus all the new issue stock and insider selling is another cap on how high the market can go. As for seasonality, there are plenty of cases of June-July tops (the end of the "summer Rally").
One writer remarked that we are in the worst credit bust in history - Bingo! That's right, and that's what is important. I see proposals asking for money every week and the terms one can get are almost criminal - IOW there are a lot of people desperate for cash. The gov't can't reinflate the credit bubble now though, look at japan since 1989. It has to run its course. You can't get expanding earnings without an expanding economy. Even if the GDP rose by 20% next year, S&P earnings would only be in the realm of $50 -55 >> does that make stocks cheap here? Not to me.
Re Sentiment, a lot of polls with longevity show we are not at extremes yet, but getting there. One more manipulated econ report could do it.
Anyway what about the technical count , for you EW gurus?