"{arb musings brought on by recent trying markets}

are there indicators, or rather a combination of indicators, that can dynamically, in real time, indicate when & to what degree, the pulse (volatility) AND the trajectory/gradient/slope (the intensity of the directional movement) of a market CHANGES?

seems to me that this will have to be something that evaluates the "very recent & current market condition" dynamically, on a rolling basis, relative to the average market condition over a suitably longer & long period...

further seems to me that what I`m actually asking is whether there is a way to get a heads up early in a move re the intensity & consistentency (& p`haps durability?) of the trend resumption/trend change; this could/should? be useful in selecting the appropriate timeframe & strategy/system to employ in trading?

lastly, seems to me that we are now in a (for now) very mild degree downtrend, but one with a rapid pulse (rapid oscillations); this may be a market condition to either (1) avoid, (2) scalp, or (3) trade on the basis of a much longer timeframe than usual, p`haps even with an entirely different MA-combo...

juz wundrin aloud... prolly a load of crap that I spew, coz I really know nothing about the stuff I`m enquiring about... but I find it interesting...

Surely one needs to change your method/strategy/system to entirely different market climates/moods?
but to do so timeously (& not after the horse has bolted), one needs to run a separate market climate diagnostic system to point you in the right direction, one would think?

what I`m really thinking is that there is prolly no system that works under all market conditions. & I have a problem buying into this backtesting thaang, unless one on objective, identifiable & defined bases distinguishes between sets of different, defined market climates, AND THEN backtests these identified different market climates separately, & tests & eyeballs which system works best for every separate market climate, having gone back in the data; then one could have, say, 3 or 4 different market climates, &, say, 3 or 4 correspondingly different strategies & systems to execute such strategies. These may, or may not, be very different, the one from the others...
Fact remains though, one would need to be able to identify real time when the market climate morphs from, say, winter to, say, spring...

this may sound ridiculous or very complex, but it isn`t: Hussman`s investment methodology (both for stocks & bonds, but separately, on different variables, for each asset class) works on the construct of 2 determining major variables, that may be either "favourable" or "unfavourable", & therefore gives rise to a set of 8 separate permutuations (market climates), 4 market climates for stocks, & 4 market climates for bonds.
Hussman does diagnostic tests FROM THE DATA for these various market climates on a continuous basis... And when there is a change in climate, he immediately changes his investment posture; this happens on objective, from-the-data-observable grounds, & is completely unemotional & non-discretionary. He can act thus because he has gone back in the data for many decades & observed the distinguishing features of the different climates; that has enabled him to define the different climates; & that enables him to identify the relevant climate in the current & recent data, & also when a climate change occurs. What`s more, having identified those different climates in decades of data, he has observed their range of outcomes, & determined the most probable outcomes of each such climate, & ergo the, on average, most appropriate investment stance to be taken in response to each separate market climate...

I was thinking, is it possible & executable to follow such a method when trading? & as mentioned right at the top of this note, which indicators may be useful for such purpose?

It seems to me to make so much sense, but would obviously involve lots of research & backtesting into data going back decades...

A ny trader that has any thoughts about this that he/she may be willing to share?
- I`ll appreciate."