Don't discount swine flu

    Posted by timrey on 29th of Apr 2009 at 12:56 pm
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    The markets seem to be acting like swine flu is a done deal and poses no threat. I think thats a grave mistake, for one there are only two labs in North American that can even test for swine flu so we really have no idea of the number infected. The following was written by a doctor who specializes in viral outbreaks. If the markets discover they were wrong in completing discounting swine flu, look out below. 

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    I know that my words don't carry much weight, but please please understand the gravity of this situation. I base my statements on contacts in the medical field, 15 years of experience working with this stuff and working prior viral outbreaks.

    This virus has the potential to be the killer that we hope it is not.

    It is currently spreading at a rate much faster than the Hong Kong flu of the 60's.

    The number of cases is GROSSLY under-reported. I have first hand knowledge of this. The state health department (Texas) is no longer accepting specimens from presumptive positive patientsand the state of NY has implemented the same policy. According to the TDH this is because they are swamped with positive Influenza A tests that have been sent for confirmation and don't even have courier resources to pick up the specimens. This is not the typical influenza A but is presumptive swine flu. The number of truly infected is in the thousands in the US...or more. The number who have died is in reality in the hundreds or more though their death has been attributed to acute respiratory failure or pneumonia.

    Hospitals are not prepared for what is happening. They have no idea the protocols necessary to deal with, test or even isolate infected patients. This is also first hand. I have a friend that is at a hospital near the Texas/Mexico border. I have been in frequent contact with him. The hospital there has had 34 influenzas that were sent to TDH against standard shipping protocols--the were sent in a bag via regular UPS. The hospital is full--he normally sleeps at the hospital as it is quite some distance from home. They are paying for him to be housed in a hospital because it is full--predominantly with respiratory conditions. None of the staff in the laboratory were versed in how to handle and process tests from these people under vent hoods. None had N95 masks or had ever even been fit tested. The infection control nurse refused to provide my friend with a mask--he had to threaten to call OSHA to get one.

    This is more common in the US than you would like to think. That is from my own experience working in hospitals as small as 20 beds and to as large as 1500 beds. As well as referral facilities and Dr.'s offices.

    It is difficult to determine what the true mortality rate is for this virus because we do not have adequate data--nor will we get it. My gut instinct is that it is currently between 4 and 8 percent but there is no real data to confirm it. In fact that is what scares me the most...there is no real data. Even assuming a much, much smaller mortality rate of 2 percent you will be having millions of deaths globally from this bug.

    Thats my 2 cents. Looking for what is going on that this pandemic may be concealing is fine...it likely is since we don't want a crisis to go to waste. The fact remains that we can deal with that when the time comes. Ignoring or discounting the potential of this flu is dangerous at best. It may not seem like much when you are saying a 1 percent mortality, but that would work out to roughly 67 million people dead. 1/5th the population of the US.

    Swine Flu

    Posted by skipc on 29th of Apr 2009 at 01:30 pm

    My wife and I both work for a Fortune 500 company that just canceled a 4000 person convetion that was scheduled for this summer in Canun.  They said the risk was just too great.

     

     

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