Dylan, I believe you are quite possibly correct that China will lead.  Of course, world trade has become much more complex since the Great Depression, and some thinkers have coined the term Chi merica to indicate how interdependent we are.  Other pundits have asked us to reflect on the positions of USA and Great Britian before and after the Great Depression, and compare to the USA and China of today.  Before the depression: who was the world's largest debtor nation, who had its troops spread around the world, who was the nation of industry, etc.  And after the Great Depression...