The govt WILL make them profitable or they will get stiffed and
the tax payers will hate and vote them out. Drugs and pharma
and medical device comanies like Zimmer will get chopped .
First C had a 12% interest rate with perferred stock, now the
govt has gotten crammed down to being a common shareholder "just
hoping to get paid back". Very low risk in myopinon.
and there is a time, when all the bad news is baked in. Banks
are down 90% from its highs. Thats equal to the great
depression when banks were down 90%.
Posted by cwa82675 on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:54 pm
I would tend to agree. I dont think the banks could all go
out of business here (yes a year or two later is possible), but I
also would not try to pick and choose individuals stocks. My
strategy is to start building a large position in uyg in the next
week or two when I believe we are in wave 5. Its very
hard to pick the exact bottom so buying at the tail end of wave 3
is the best idea. only 20-40% and then when it confirms you
bought close to the bottom you know what the good deals are and can
double your position sizes. If we dont get a good selloff
early next week I will probably switch my thinking from shorting
the rallies to buying the dips. we are at lows here and
everyone is loosing, the only question is how many people are
loosing? Did everyone switch their 401Ks out of the market
last year after the third wave or is everyone still "hoping" for a
rally. that is the true question and will likely give us the
answer to the capitulatory bottom. Isn't that what trimtabs
is for? Does anyone have a recent report they would like to
share.
I will say it again. 87 to 91 was the cliff notes version
of 2000-2010. We went through all the same steps. We
had the RTC in 89, good bank, bad bank, the recession in 90.
It took forever for trust to come back to the banks even though
there was appreciation ( small). I coined my phrase "lepracy
factor" back then. If clients would rather talk about having
lepracy than buy an asset class, it was time to buy.
I think there will be a stigma on NY banks and leadership will
change hands, BAC and WFC may be the new leaders going forward.
This is not investment advice. I don't know if it make
sense at all. As always DYODD
I like the banks
Posted by delane on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:02 pm
The govt WILL make them profitable or they will get stiffed and the tax payers will hate and vote them out. Drugs and pharma and medical device comanies like Zimmer will get chopped . First C had a 12% interest rate with perferred stock, now the govt has gotten crammed down to being a common shareholder "just hoping to get paid back". Very low risk in myopinon. and there is a time, when all the bad news is baked in. Banks are down 90% from its highs. Thats equal to the great depression when banks were down 90%.
I would tend to agree.
Posted by cwa82675 on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:54 pm
I would tend to agree. I dont think the banks could all go out of business here (yes a year or two later is possible), but I also would not try to pick and choose individuals stocks. My strategy is to start building a large position in uyg in the next week or two when I believe we are in wave 5. Its very hard to pick the exact bottom so buying at the tail end of wave 3 is the best idea. only 20-40% and then when it confirms you bought close to the bottom you know what the good deals are and can double your position sizes. If we dont get a good selloff early next week I will probably switch my thinking from shorting the rallies to buying the dips. we are at lows here and everyone is loosing, the only question is how many people are loosing? Did everyone switch their 401Ks out of the market last year after the third wave or is everyone still "hoping" for a rally. that is the true question and will likely give us the answer to the capitulatory bottom. Isn't that what trimtabs is for? Does anyone have a recent report they would like to share.
Banks
Posted by ralph on 27th of Feb 2009 at 01:49 pm
I will say it again. 87 to 91 was the cliff notes version of 2000-2010. We went through all the same steps. We had the RTC in 89, good bank, bad bank, the recession in 90. It took forever for trust to come back to the banks even though there was appreciation ( small). I coined my phrase "lepracy factor" back then. If clients would rather talk about having lepracy than buy an asset class, it was time to buy.
I think there will be a stigma on NY banks and leadership will change hands, BAC and WFC may be the new leaders going forward.
This is not investment advice. I don't know if it make sense at all. As always DYODD
Ralph
what if the gov't takes
Posted by PA on 27th of Feb 2009 at 01:51 pm
what if the gov't takes them all over 'for their own good"? what will they be worth then?
everyone
Posted by delane on 27th of Feb 2009 at 01:01 pm
banks
Posted by robincage1 on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:13 pm
anyone ready to pick up banks, BAC or FAS, at this point, or is it still too risky. ?
best to miss a point or two and get this last leg down with the overall market....
appreciate feedback if you decide to go long.