Latest estimates for S&P500 2009 earnings are in the $40-$50
range. Given that the S&P P/E usually dips below 10 during
severe recessions, when is the market going to realize it is way
overpriced for forward earnings?
"conventional wisdom" is looking for a rebound in the second
half. When earnings start to address the second half, and it
looks weaker, I think we will adjust. Mid April in Q1
earnings season should answer these questions. JM.02. Until
then, we could stay in this trading range.
Ralph
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S&P Fair Value
Posted by sethbru on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:26 pm
Latest estimates for S&P500 2009 earnings are in the $40-$50 range. Given that the S&P P/E usually dips below 10 during severe recessions, when is the market going to realize it is way overpriced for forward earnings?
"conventional wisdom" is looking for
Posted by ralph on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:33 pm
"conventional wisdom" is looking for a rebound in the second half. When earnings start to address the second half, and it looks weaker, I think we will adjust. Mid April in Q1 earnings season should answer these questions. JM.02. Until then, we could stay in this trading range.
Ralph