arl - hope youir 34-35 target for DUG is right! Regarding
SKF, I think the 60 min chart looks overbought, and if that plays
out I'll go long XLF, but I'm thinking about just keeping this SKF
as a core position for a while, and trading around it. I
think financials have a long way to fall yet. That
said, I actually sold my SKF on friday morning around 103 when it
looked toppy, wanting to protect my profits, but then ended up
going back in at 101.39. Not patting myself on the back -- I
just luckily happened to be watching the charts at those times and
caught the moves -- but then I decided I'll just keep the core
position for a while and trade around that. Many thanks --
I'm appreciating your ideas about direction and levels on
stuff.
I think I will be right again--My timing was a bit off but like
when I posted my SKF trade--I felt confident that it would work but
it went against me as my timing was off.I bought at 93.80 and
posted my target as 99-100..Imagine it just took a week to get
there and then 104-105..Anyway there is the chance(good) that DUG
will visit 29 and a bit lower..I forget who but another member
posted a downside target of 28.50-29---Of course there are stops
there but I will just buy more..Like I said,I wear my daytrader hat
most of the time(very short time frame) and that messed me up with
skf..I would have normally been out of DUG with nice dt profit BUT
not this time
Of course you know that there are no guarantees in life
especially with the markets but I put my best analysis into this
and have been following it since it was on the blog and I didnt buy
it when the BPener gave a buy because I felt that it was the FIRST
bounce after a decline and another test would come and we would hit
the 28.50-29 area--we didnt--yet anyway so I sorta got faked
out.Anyway,my target on SKF was conservative so it is on DUG
too
When I find a good trade I usually post it--most of the time its
a day or two trade UNLESS I say Im gonna hold this like I did with
DUG CNX etc
arl - I have no frear about the DUG trade. I bought at
30.68, I'm down about 3.5%, which as Matt says, is not much for an
ultra ETF. May sound niave, but I actually don't see how the
trade can NOT work, which is why I didn't sell it. Oil stocks
can't just go straight up. HAHA - famous last words!
But really, they do look toppy now. And if I give it 8%, a
little more, and oil stocks still haven't corrected, that will be
extraordinary and I'll take my loss and will have learned
something.
You know what I would like to see? Oil up on Mon DUG--drops
makes new lows--just under 29 or whatever BUT by the end of day it
closes on the highs of the day UP over a buck from Fri--sort of
like a key reversal day..Then the trade works over the next 5
or so days and gets to my target Oh well I like to
dream--LOL
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arl - hope youir 34-35
SKF-Financials
Posted by Michael on 10th of May 2008 at 03:33 pm
arl - hope youir 34-35 target for DUG is right! Regarding SKF, I think the 60 min chart looks overbought, and if that plays out I'll go long XLF, but I'm thinking about just keeping this SKF as a core position for a while, and trading around it. I think financials have a long way to fall yet. That said, I actually sold my SKF on friday morning around 103 when it looked toppy, wanting to protect my profits, but then ended up going back in at 101.39. Not patting myself on the back -- I just luckily happened to be watching the charts at those times and caught the moves -- but then I decided I'll just keep the core position for a while and trade around that. Many thanks -- I'm appreciating your ideas about direction and levels on stuff.
DUG
Posted by arl3080 on 10th of May 2008 at 04:16 pm
I think I will be right again--My timing was a bit off but like when I posted my SKF trade--I felt confident that it would work but it went against me as my timing was off.I bought at 93.80 and posted my target as 99-100..Imagine it just took a week to get there and then 104-105..Anyway there is the chance(good) that DUG will visit 29 and a bit lower..I forget who but another member posted a downside target of 28.50-29---Of course there are stops there but I will just buy more..Like I said,I wear my daytrader hat most of the time(very short time frame) and that messed me up with skf..I would have normally been out of DUG with nice dt profit BUT not this time
Of course you know that there are no guarantees in life especially with the markets but I put my best analysis into this and have been following it since it was on the blog and I didnt buy it when the BPener gave a buy because I felt that it was the FIRST bounce after a decline and another test would come and we would hit the 28.50-29 area--we didnt--yet anyway so I sorta got faked out.Anyway,my target on SKF was conservative so it is on DUG too
When I find a good trade I usually post it--most of the time its a day or two trade UNLESS I say Im gonna hold this like I did with DUG CNX etc
Always the Best to you in your trading
ARL
arl - I have no
Posted by Michael on 10th of May 2008 at 05:11 pm
arl - I have no frear about the DUG trade. I bought at 30.68, I'm down about 3.5%, which as Matt says, is not much for an ultra ETF. May sound niave, but I actually don't see how the trade can NOT work, which is why I didn't sell it. Oil stocks can't just go straight up. HAHA - famous last words! But really, they do look toppy now. And if I give it 8%, a little more, and oil stocks still haven't corrected, that will be extraordinary and I'll take my loss and will have learned something.
DUG
Posted by arl3080 on 10th of May 2008 at 06:33 pm
You know what I would like to see? Oil up on Mon DUG--drops makes new lows--just under 29 or whatever BUT by the end of day it closes on the highs of the day UP over a buck from Fri--sort of like a key reversal day..Then the trade works over the next 5 or so days and gets to my target Oh well I like to dream--LOL