So Steve and Matt, is this stilll a bear market rally or are we
transitioning to a bull market pls or is it still trading
range pls.. I think when you guys use Bear market it keeps readers
like me more defensive and expecting a further pullback from
what the monthly and annual channels are that Matt had drawn a week
ago.
Please give us a better take on your views so we don't
lean too bearish or too bullish, Tough case , I know
as Steve replied already formulate a plan and strategy that fits
your style. As far as me showing some bigger picture charts a week
ago such as the monthly and yearly charts, that's my opinion for
now that those eventually play out over time. It doesn't mean they
will or have to just an opinion and showing what those charts look
like. And when I state things like overall bear market, that should
not preclude you from following your plan or executing on a long
that meets your trigger conditions etc. Under a longer bear
market conditions, you can have rallies that lasts for many months,
3, 5, 6 months longs and huge moves - when you get valid long
triggers there's no reason to ignore them. The October low had 5th
waves down and as we always say, anytime you complete 5 waves you
are going to have a longer trending move in the other direction.
And as far as pundits calling for the bear market being over in Oct
maybe they are right and maybe they are not, it doesn't matter. I
guess the only way it would matter is if you are someone who went
long everything in Oct/Nov and you only plan to look at the market
a year later - that that's no one here, everyone here is active and
dynamic.
again our opinion longer term is our opinion, but we will adapt
to whatever the market does. Also, and as I've stated - if we go
back into a bull market cycle, the KISS index systems will catch
that, and if we go back into a strong decline later this year, the
KISS systems will avoid that - so one option is to just follow
those - they will catch whatever occurs
My opinions/concerns longer term:
1. Debt, debt, and more debt - the whole system is a Ponzi
scheme and will eventually implode, when that is who knows
2. Inflation is a real concern and for now appears to be
embedded - that's why you don't want to let the cat out of the bag,
once out it's hard to get the thing back in
3. The move away from the US Dollar as the world reserve
currency is starting to unfold slowly. Having the reserve currency
of the word is what has allowed us to print money to no ends have
our cake and eat it too - eventually that's going to come to and
end and we'll have to pay the piper
4. Gold may eventually have its day when all this comes home
to roost
5. The Fed is not going to able to easily go back on a
cutting cycle and nor should they
6. The market being in a bear market: Clearly that was the
case in 2022. What type of bear market is this remains to be
seen, was it over in less than a year? or could this unfold over 2
or close to 3 years like the bear market from 2000 - late 2002?
7. This AI stuff is probably an area to focus on stocks in
that area and new IPO's and players that come into the space -
there will likely be stocks that could go up 10, 20, 50 fold over
time
I nor you can control any of these things, what I focus on is my
plan for my trading and longer term position trading. If I see a
stock coming out of a long term base etc and I like the company, I
will still look to buy a position into it regardless. Basically I
still play setups regardless of the backdrop and I use money
management and stops
I feel that I'm just rambling now, but again I want to stress
that just because we might show a monthly or weekly chart and make
comments about it, don't let that distract you from your plan and
executing on your triggers. I would also suggest not
listening to CNBC pundits - it's fine to listen but don't so locked
into one opinion or article that you read that it affects your
trading and execution of your plan
I'll look for your email: Systems: KISS systems, reversion
to mean systems - they are mutually exclusive to whatever our
subjective technical analysis say - they do what they do on their
own.
Reversion to mean system trades are emailed out and sent out via
SMS text message.
- KISS systems are shown nightly and lately I've been posting
when they go long or flat as well - these systems are not time
sensitive like the reversion to mean, it doesn't matter if one
doesn't see those trades until after hrs as they tend to stay in
positions for weeks to months. Also, most of the changes are adding
a new higher low stop, which is something one can adjust for
the next day as they would already have a stop in place from the
previous STS. you can also use this URL to see tons of ETF's and
stocks, it's updated once a day after the market
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket
and I have also been more bullish for the post several weeks -
reason being too much bearishness, too many big players hedged and
not positioned long enough and that has resulted in higher prices,
and it would not shock me if that continues. Could prices go back
to 4300 even? sure. I'll continue to play valid long setups and
short setups as I see them
I gave my opinion in the newsletter - what matters is your
belief. Not all markets are trending and you must understand
that fact - just examine the past 6 months - wrecking ball range.
We had 5 waves down into October so we were expecting a retrace
- how far and how long is anyone's guess. If the FED enacts
Qe5 then bullish otherwise no dice. Do you view the recent
action as the start of Qe 5? YOU DECIDE
Bullish View off October low could be large expanding LD with
move above 4196 (large pullback to follow)
Bearish view a triangle or a complex corrective move up
unfolding
Will be listening to newsletter shortly, thanks i understand its
been nutty, All star charts seems to think bottom was put in
in october 2022 just another pundits opinion
Again - what matters is YOUR belief and most importantly YOUR
PLAN - who cares about opinions. It's about execution of a
plan. Spend more time on devising a plan that suits your
approach and risk tolerance than prognostications. I have
posted levels here yesterday and in the newsletter as
guideposts. Please take time to review all.
The market moves based upon one thing LIQUIDITY - the entire
move up since 2009 was fueled by massive expansion of liquidity
(especially during Covid which resulted in a such moves in the
market AND inflation that is likely to be engrained for an extended
period contra to what was supposed to be transitory).
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:50 pm
Even with FED injecting liquidity into the system (this time in
a different way), there is another dynamic counteracting that. And
that is bond yields/higher interest, which provides a viable
alternative to equities. This has to be taken into account.
exactly regarding those higher yields. A good example I saw was
that 1 year ago if one had $10 million, he/she would make about
$70K/Year in interest income form Treasuries. Now that same $10M
will make $500K a year - that's a massive difference and for many
well to do folks or families, or someone who sold a company
recently, or inherited money - that kind of return now might be
enough for them to live on just the interest and NOT both to put it
into the stock market. Basically it takes supply away from
the market that was forced into the market when rates were 0.5%
etc.
Yes and let's not forget the cost of financing (and living
expenses) with higher rates (and inflation) and how that impacts
the savings of ORDINARY people - they are having trouble meeting
expenses let alone having money to invest. Do the math on the
cost of a mortgage or car loan today (just the increase in
interest) not to mention the 10 plus percent inflation (6 percent
is a joke if you really check into the true number not as
calculated by CPI - hell they don't even include the cost of a
home). I'm not worried about those with $25 million accounts
but those in the middle class and lower.
Absolutely and I'm not in the QE5 camp as the FED typically
proclaims when QE is in effect (that may change but not as yet).
They have been transparent in that regard. There will
come a time when they cannot be the answer either.
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So Steve and Matt, is
SPX Views
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 06:14 pm
So Steve and Matt, is this stilll a bear market rally or are we transitioning to a bull market pls or is it still trading range pls.. I think when you guys use Bear market it keeps readers like me more defensive and expecting a further pullback from what the monthly and annual channels are that Matt had drawn a week ago.
Please give us a better take on your views so we don't lean too bearish or too bullish, Tough case , I know
as Steve replied already formulate
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:42 pm
as Steve replied already formulate a plan and strategy that fits your style. As far as me showing some bigger picture charts a week ago such as the monthly and yearly charts, that's my opinion for now that those eventually play out over time. It doesn't mean they will or have to just an opinion and showing what those charts look like. And when I state things like overall bear market, that should not preclude you from following your plan or executing on a long that meets your trigger conditions etc. Under a longer bear market conditions, you can have rallies that lasts for many months, 3, 5, 6 months longs and huge moves - when you get valid long triggers there's no reason to ignore them. The October low had 5th waves down and as we always say, anytime you complete 5 waves you are going to have a longer trending move in the other direction. And as far as pundits calling for the bear market being over in Oct maybe they are right and maybe they are not, it doesn't matter. I guess the only way it would matter is if you are someone who went long everything in Oct/Nov and you only plan to look at the market a year later - that that's no one here, everyone here is active and dynamic.
again our opinion longer term is our opinion, but we will adapt to whatever the market does. Also, and as I've stated - if we go back into a bull market cycle, the KISS index systems will catch that, and if we go back into a strong decline later this year, the KISS systems will avoid that - so one option is to just follow those - they will catch whatever occurs
My opinions/concerns longer term:
1. Debt, debt, and more debt - the whole system is a Ponzi scheme and will eventually implode, when that is who knows
2. Inflation is a real concern and for now appears to be embedded - that's why you don't want to let the cat out of the bag, once out it's hard to get the thing back in
3. The move away from the US Dollar as the world reserve currency is starting to unfold slowly. Having the reserve currency of the word is what has allowed us to print money to no ends have our cake and eat it too - eventually that's going to come to and end and we'll have to pay the piper
4. Gold may eventually have its day when all this comes home to roost
5. The Fed is not going to able to easily go back on a cutting cycle and nor should they
6. The market being in a bear market: Clearly that was the case in 2022. What type of bear market is this remains to be seen, was it over in less than a year? or could this unfold over 2 or close to 3 years like the bear market from 2000 - late 2002?
7. This AI stuff is probably an area to focus on stocks in that area and new IPO's and players that come into the space - there will likely be stocks that could go up 10, 20, 50 fold over time
I nor you can control any of these things, what I focus on is my plan for my trading and longer term position trading. If I see a stock coming out of a long term base etc and I like the company, I will still look to buy a position into it regardless. Basically I still play setups regardless of the backdrop and I use money management and stops
I feel that I'm just rambling now, but again I want to stress that just because we might show a monthly or weekly chart and make comments about it, don't let that distract you from your plan and executing on your triggers. I would also suggest not listening to CNBC pundits - it's fine to listen but don't so locked into one opinion or article that you read that it affects your trading and execution of your plan
I'll look for your email: Systems: KISS systems, reversion to mean systems - they are mutually exclusive to whatever our subjective technical analysis say - they do what they do on their own.
Reversion to mean system trades are emailed out and sent out via SMS text message.
- KISS systems are shown nightly and lately I've been posting when they go long or flat as well - these systems are not time sensitive like the reversion to mean, it doesn't matter if one doesn't see those trades until after hrs as they tend to stay in positions for weeks to months. Also, most of the changes are adding a new higher low stop, which is something one can adjust for the next day as they would already have a stop in place from the previous STS. you can also use this URL to see tons of ETF's and stocks, it's updated once a day after the market
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket
Thank you for your detailed
Posted by steverobin on 3rd of Apr 2023 at 04:59 am
Thank you for your detailed thoughts!
Not rambling. Thank you.
Posted by fredsaid on 3rd of Apr 2023 at 01:05 am
Not rambling. Thank you.
and I have also been
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:51 pm
and I have also been more bullish for the post several weeks - reason being too much bearishness, too many big players hedged and not positioned long enough and that has resulted in higher prices, and it would not shock me if that continues. Could prices go back to 4300 even? sure. I'll continue to play valid long setups and short setups as I see them
I gave my opinion in
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:08 pm
I gave my opinion in the newsletter - what matters is your belief. Not all markets are trending and you must understand that fact - just examine the past 6 months - wrecking ball range.
We had 5 waves down into October so we were expecting a retrace - how far and how long is anyone's guess. If the FED enacts Qe5 then bullish otherwise no dice. Do you view the recent action as the start of Qe 5? YOU DECIDE
Bullish View off October low could be large expanding LD with move above 4196 (large pullback to follow)
Bearish view a triangle or a complex corrective move up unfolding
Will be listening to newsletter
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:18 pm
Will be listening to newsletter shortly, thanks i understand its been nutty, All star charts seems to think bottom was put in in october 2022 just another pundits opinion
Again - what matters is
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:22 pm
Again - what matters is YOUR belief and most importantly YOUR PLAN - who cares about opinions. It's about execution of a plan. Spend more time on devising a plan that suits your approach and risk tolerance than prognostications. I have posted levels here yesterday and in the newsletter as guideposts. Please take time to review all.
The market moves based upon one thing LIQUIDITY - the entire move up since 2009 was fueled by massive expansion of liquidity (especially during Covid which resulted in a such moves in the market AND inflation that is likely to be engrained for an extended period contra to what was supposed to be transitory).
Even with FED injecting liquidity
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:50 pm
Even with FED injecting liquidity into the system (this time in a different way), there is another dynamic counteracting that. And that is bond yields/higher interest, which provides a viable alternative to equities. This has to be taken into account.
exactly regarding those higher yields.
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:07 pm
exactly regarding those higher yields. A good example I saw was that 1 year ago if one had $10 million, he/she would make about $70K/Year in interest income form Treasuries. Now that same $10M will make $500K a year - that's a massive difference and for many well to do folks or families, or someone who sold a company recently, or inherited money - that kind of return now might be enough for them to live on just the interest and NOT both to put it into the stock market. Basically it takes supply away from the market that was forced into the market when rates were 0.5% etc.
Yes and let's not forget
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:23 pm
Yes and let's not forget the cost of financing (and living expenses) with higher rates (and inflation) and how that impacts the savings of ORDINARY people - they are having trouble meeting expenses let alone having money to invest. Do the math on the cost of a mortgage or car loan today (just the increase in interest) not to mention the 10 plus percent inflation (6 percent is a joke if you really check into the true number not as calculated by CPI - hell they don't even include the cost of a home). I'm not worried about those with $25 million accounts but those in the middle class and lower.
Great point Matt. Some of
Posted by arun on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:09 pm
Great point Matt. Some of my colleagues have 25M plus accounts and this is exactly what they have been doing.
Absolutely and I'm not in
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 08:39 pm
Absolutely and I'm not in the QE5 camp as the FED typically proclaims when QE is in effect (that may change but not as yet). They have been transparent in that regard. There will come a time when they cannot be the answer either.