Valid point.  I was looking at all those Volatility charts Matt posted yesterday and it looked like all of them have room to move to the upside indicating that the markets certainly have room to move down before forming any kind of short term bottom.   Getting pulled in both directions as the April Bullish Sentiment kicks in but given where we are along with the almost certain big break coming soon.  The scenario i presented is still viable, heck the whole market could sell off along with a rally in banks and oil and the SnP would still be rangebound and the QQQs should have a failed breakouts as you stated and hopefully we'll get a better opportunity to get into Gold.