I read an article saying it was cos people are focussed on
depression killing bonds (but increasing yields hopefully
proportionately! - I'm new to bonds myself, and as goldbuggish as I
am I'm not putting more than 20% in it, so where does the rest go?)
but that they are pricing in rate cuts and NO inflation, so
opportunity may be here or soon before that worm turns. Likewise it
seems gold is being bought primarily on the fear factor - if it was
inflation too then it would be thru the roof along with other
commodities, but the bailout has to mean inflation. To me this
means scale very hesitantly in on all these for the longer term.
There's no way either oil or gold should be at these low levels
fundamentally, depression or not IMO.
Hell just look how many 1 minute guys on this blog are starting
to talk about buying bullion.
Seems to me this all shoots down the Efficient Market idea - it
looks psychologically & structurally efficient but not at all
fundamentally efficient.
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TIPs & commodities
Posted by kreem on 8th of Oct 2008 at 12:14 pm
I read an article saying it was cos people are focussed on depression killing bonds (but increasing yields hopefully proportionately! - I'm new to bonds myself, and as goldbuggish as I am I'm not putting more than 20% in it, so where does the rest go?) but that they are pricing in rate cuts and NO inflation, so opportunity may be here or soon before that worm turns. Likewise it seems gold is being bought primarily on the fear factor - if it was inflation too then it would be thru the roof along with other commodities, but the bailout has to mean inflation. To me this means scale very hesitantly in on all these for the longer term. There's no way either oil or gold should be at these low levels fundamentally, depression or not IMO.
Hell just look how many 1 minute guys on this blog are starting to talk about buying bullion.
Seems to me this all shoots down the Efficient Market idea - it looks psychologically & structurally efficient but not at all fundamentally efficient.