In the
previous postTom McClellan highlights Peter
Eliades’ work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year.
To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for
NFTRHsubscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading
an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of
Robert Prechter.
Thank you for re-posting! Your monthly chart aligns well with
Martin Armstrong's model, which shows a top this year for European
stock markets and government bond markets. A top on the $spx is
about 2 years away, scheduled for 2017-18, according to his model.
A historical parallel is 1927, based on a peak and crash in bonds,
which we are witnessing now, which will drive money into equities
for the final top ahead of us.
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BIG PICTURE MARKET CYCLE
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Jun 2015 at 02:02 pm
More on the Big Picture Stock Market Cycle
By NFTRH - June 12, 2015 5:11 am
By Biiwii
In the previous postTom McClellan highlights Peter Eliades’ work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year. To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for NFTRHsubscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of Robert Prechter.
Bear in mind that this big picture cycle is a blunt tool, much like market sentiment or other indicators that show risk, but for extended periods, little risk discovery. So as McClellan mentions, it takes much finer detail management to gauge a topping process. That is what makes market management interesting and sometimes even fun; adding details and color to big picture theses.
We should not look at one chart and its message without cross referencing other charts, data and indicators. The best risk vs. reward scenarios come about when multiple data points come to similar conclusions.
Anyway, staying on the big picture, here is another monthly chart of the S&P 500 we have been using in NFTRHthat shows yes indeed, a top (of some kind) is indicated by the monthly MACD signal, but…
Click chart to expand to full view
…that each of the last two major tops included a bearish MACD signal that preceded a drop to the monthly EMA 20, which turned out to be a pause to refresh prior to ultimate bull market highs in both cases.
Will it be different this time? Very possibly, but also very possibly not. The stock market cycle indicates that it will be different because the S&P is supposedly duefor a major top. But the color and detail can only be painted in by doing the shorter-term work each week. Especially since this cycle has had a certain ‘rule breaker’ aspect to it, due in my opinion to historically aggressive policy maker inputs (and resulting distortions) from its birth in Q4 2008/Q1 2009 to today.
Thank you for re-posting! Your
Posted by junkie on 13th of Jun 2015 at 12:29 am
Thank you for re-posting! Your monthly chart aligns well with Martin Armstrong's model, which shows a top this year for European stock markets and government bond markets. A top on the $spx is about 2 years away, scheduled for 2017-18, according to his model. A historical parallel is 1927, based on a peak and crash in bonds, which we are witnessing now, which will drive money into equities for the final top ahead of us.