Posted by varmercur on 4th of Nov 2014 at 08:45 am
Steve/Matt - regarding maroonk1's suggested IHS - according to
the theory, IHS are supposed to be bottom patterns (while HS are
topping patterns), suggesting an IHS is not typically seen at the
top of a trend (we've been going up since 2009/2011). How likely is
the IHS in the SPX chart suggested by maroonk1 actually to develop?
My guess would be a potential right shoulder builds - and then it
goes above the current highs till say 2040 or something, only to
fail and fall hard.
A quote from Edwards and Magee ( the ultimate authority on chart
patterns):
“This formation is not a true Head and Shoulders for a number of
important reasons but we must admit that it is difficult to find a
better name for it….we shall accept the suggested name and call it
the Continuation Head and Shoulders.”
Admittedly rare and tends to occur in strong trends.
varmecur...you general statement is correct but IHS can form as
part of an ongoing strong trend. At this time, it's best to focus
on the current structure and simply keep an open mind to such an
option. For now, the SPX is overbought with a daily doji candle and
that is my current focus. See SPX Futures comments below.
As far as ES, it put in a lower high overnight and a lower low
this morning around S1. It's trying to form a falling wedge off
yesterday's highs but must hold support (rising trendline and S1
area) or would be vulnerable to a deeper pullback (likely to test
the 9 day EMA below). Bearish view would be a HS pattern.
SPX Forming inverse H&S?
Posted by maroonk1 on 4th of Nov 2014 at 07:59 am
Possible shallow retracement to 1973 Pivot forming a shoulder. Breakout target 2230.
IHS at the top of a trend
Posted by varmercur on 4th of Nov 2014 at 08:45 am
Steve/Matt - regarding maroonk1's suggested IHS - according to the theory, IHS are supposed to be bottom patterns (while HS are topping patterns), suggesting an IHS is not typically seen at the top of a trend (we've been going up since 2009/2011). How likely is the IHS in the SPX chart suggested by maroonk1 actually to develop? My guess would be a potential right shoulder builds - and then it goes above the current highs till say 2040 or something, only to fail and fall hard.
A quote from Edwards and
Posted by maroonk1 on 4th of Nov 2014 at 08:57 am
A quote from Edwards and Magee ( the ultimate authority on chart patterns):
“This formation is not a true Head and Shoulders for a number of important reasons but we must admit that it is difficult to find a better name for it….we shall accept the suggested name and call it the Continuation Head and Shoulders.”
Admittedly rare and tends to occur in strong trends.
varmecur...you general statement is correct
Posted by steve on 4th of Nov 2014 at 08:56 am
varmecur...you general statement is correct but IHS can form as part of an ongoing strong trend. At this time, it's best to focus on the current structure and simply keep an open mind to such an option. For now, the SPX is overbought with a daily doji candle and that is my current focus. See SPX Futures comments below.
As far as ES, it put in a lower high overnight and a lower low this morning around S1. It's trying to form a falling wedge off yesterday's highs but must hold support (rising trendline and S1 area) or would be vulnerable to a deeper pullback (likely to test the 9 day EMA below). Bearish view would be a HS pattern.
Nice move down on ES
Posted by steve on 4th of Nov 2014 at 11:00 am
Nice move down on ES once support was lost.