Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 02:53 pm
The Dow has a current RSI-2 value of 1.48 and is down for
the 4th consecutive day. Within the last 2 years the Dow has had
patterns of being down 5 and 6 days before rallying.
From Nov 27 to Dec 5th the Dow had RSI-2 closes of
94.82, 62.96, 10.90, 3.63, 2.68, and 1.10. So this is the lowest
reading since then. From August 13th thru the 21st the Dow had a 6
down day pattern that ended with a reading of 0.37%. These two
patterns were the lowest RSI-2 readings going back to 12-28-12 at
1.65%. If you ignored the 65% RSI-2 limit that Larry Connors
suggested in his original Trin strategy, all of the possible Trin
trades made money in 2013.
There were 2 TRIN patterns in 2012 where a 2nd signal
occured just 3 days after the first one triggered. On 5-9-12 the
2nd Trin occured on a day where the RSI-2 value for the Dow was
0.87%. The next trading day there was divergence within the 8 RSI-2
index values I track. So that made it a one day trade.
On 7-10-12 the 2nd Trin signal came on a day where the Dow
was at an RSI-2 value of 8.26%. That time the Dow closed lower for
2 more days before rallying higher. Taking that trade did make
money by closing out on the 13th.
The $NYA has a current RSI-2 reading of 1.97%. Taking a
long trade when RSI-2 values are below 2.50% has a very good
statistical probability of making money over the 13 years of data
that I have studied. Scaling in, as Matt does with Spy Pro,
improves those odds even more. Are there exceptions to this?....of
course.
At the moment there are also excellent high probability 60
min chart "squeeze" patterns on all 8 major indexes that I
look at each day. For me I want to put together mutiple
pieces of technial data that make it statistically likely that a
trade can make money.
With MA(9) on the daily at 16270 on the Dow, what would be your
exit strategy for the original RSI-2 system? Or the system expects
a close above 16270 to exit a long trade?
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The Dow has a current
TRIN & RSI-2
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 02:53 pm
The Dow has a current RSI-2 value of 1.48 and is down for the 4th consecutive day. Within the last 2 years the Dow has had patterns of being down 5 and 6 days before rallying.
From Nov 27 to Dec 5th the Dow had RSI-2 closes of 94.82, 62.96, 10.90, 3.63, 2.68, and 1.10. So this is the lowest reading since then. From August 13th thru the 21st the Dow had a 6 down day pattern that ended with a reading of 0.37%. These two patterns were the lowest RSI-2 readings going back to 12-28-12 at 1.65%. If you ignored the 65% RSI-2 limit that Larry Connors suggested in his original Trin strategy, all of the possible Trin trades made money in 2013.
There were 2 TRIN patterns in 2012 where a 2nd signal occured just 3 days after the first one triggered. On 5-9-12 the 2nd Trin occured on a day where the RSI-2 value for the Dow was 0.87%. The next trading day there was divergence within the 8 RSI-2 index values I track. So that made it a one day trade.
On 7-10-12 the 2nd Trin signal came on a day where the Dow was at an RSI-2 value of 8.26%. That time the Dow closed lower for 2 more days before rallying higher. Taking that trade did make money by closing out on the 13th.
The $NYA has a current RSI-2 reading of 1.97%. Taking a long trade when RSI-2 values are below 2.50% has a very good statistical probability of making money over the 13 years of data that I have studied. Scaling in, as Matt does with Spy Pro, improves those odds even more. Are there exceptions to this?....of course.
At the moment there are also excellent high probability 60 min chart "squeeze" patterns on all 8 major indexes that I look at each day. For me I want to put together mutiple pieces of technial data that make it statistically likely that a trade can make money.
regarding TRIN & RSI-2
Posted by junkie on 25th of Jan 2014 at 02:45 am
With MA(9) on the daily at 16270 on the Dow, what would be your exit strategy for the original RSI-2 system? Or the system expects a close above 16270 to exit a long trade?