Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 01:02 pm
The various indicators that I use to analyze TRIN by itself
had a short-term buy signal at yesterday's close. This signal can
also be effectively used with the XIV & UVXY etf's. If you took
this trade yesterday at the close, XIV gapped down at the open
today for an opening loss of -2.87%. To me this strong opening gap
down meant to exit the XIV trade, and buy its opposite leveraged
etf UVXY as close to the open as possible. If you were able to
execute this at or close to the opening prices, the XIV loss was
totally wiped out, because UVXY has been as high as +9.6% up from
the open. Choosing to use the unleveraged VXX etf would mean a more
modest 1+% net gain at the moment.
At the moment the TRIN itself has been above 0.99 (Connors
used 1.00) now for six straight days. Statistically this is an
unusual occurence over the past 11+ years of data that I keep. The
first potential Long signal came at the end of the 3rd day. That
was a one day Long trade for me using ADRE that made a modest
profit. If this 6th day above 0.99 holds up, I would look at this
as a potential new Long TRIN signal at today's close.
VIX is currently up 16+% on the day after being up more
than 22% earlier. Obviously this is an extreme one day move on the
heels of yesterday's 7.2% move up. The RSI-2 value on the Vix is
currently 99.16%. The other indicator components I use on my VIX
chart are also currently providing a Long signal
Both the NYA and Dow now have RSI-2 values of less than
2.5%. The Dow is at 1.74%. 1798-1801 is a key support
area for the SPX. This is the 4th straight down day for the
Dow
I had some questions emailed to me about what I posted
about RSI-2 index values. Yesterday I commented on the 1 day 80+
point RSI-2 difference between the RUT and Dow as being a 1 day
long signal for me. Obviously that Long trade is not working out
today even though there were multiple pieces of technical data that
I look at that provided a basis for taking a long trade at
yesterday's close. This is the 6th such 80+ point RSI-2 trade so
far in 2014. This trade would be the 2nd losing trade in 2014. The
previous loser was only down a penny. Using the 200% RUT funds this
simple approach was up 7.36% for 2014 going into today. The current
decline in RUT would take approx 4.3% from this YTD gain - still
better than the overall market YTD. In 2013 there were 48 trades
using this 1 day approach. Of these, 15 were losing trades. Using
the 200% RUT funds for trading, the strategy gained 39.70% on a
stand alone basis. In 2012 there were just 15 trades with 4 losers
that produced a gain of just over 20% on a stand alone basis. This
is just one piece of short-term data that I look at to
supplement the longer term pieces like Matt's BPT-MA and Spy
Pro.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 02:53 pm
The Dow has a current RSI-2 value of 1.48 and is down for
the 4th consecutive day. Within the last 2 years the Dow has had
patterns of being down 5 and 6 days before rallying.
From Nov 27 to Dec 5th the Dow had RSI-2 closes of
94.82, 62.96, 10.90, 3.63, 2.68, and 1.10. So this is the lowest
reading since then. From August 13th thru the 21st the Dow had a 6
down day pattern that ended with a reading of 0.37%. These two
patterns were the lowest RSI-2 readings going back to 12-28-12 at
1.65%. If you ignored the 65% RSI-2 limit that Larry Connors
suggested in his original Trin strategy, all of the possible Trin
trades made money in 2013.
There were 2 TRIN patterns in 2012 where a 2nd signal
occured just 3 days after the first one triggered. On 5-9-12 the
2nd Trin occured on a day where the RSI-2 value for the Dow was
0.87%. The next trading day there was divergence within the 8 RSI-2
index values I track. So that made it a one day trade.
On 7-10-12 the 2nd Trin signal came on a day where the Dow
was at an RSI-2 value of 8.26%. That time the Dow closed lower for
2 more days before rallying higher. Taking that trade did make
money by closing out on the 13th.
The $NYA has a current RSI-2 reading of 1.97%. Taking a
long trade when RSI-2 values are below 2.50% has a very good
statistical probability of making money over the 13 years of data
that I have studied. Scaling in, as Matt does with Spy Pro,
improves those odds even more. Are there exceptions to this?....of
course.
At the moment there are also excellent high probability 60
min chart "squeeze" patterns on all 8 major indexes that I
look at each day. For me I want to put together mutiple
pieces of technial data that make it statistically likely that a
trade can make money.
With MA(9) on the daily at 16270 on the Dow, what would be your
exit strategy for the original RSI-2 system? Or the system expects
a close above 16270 to exit a long trade?
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TRIN & RSI-2
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 01:02 pm
The various indicators that I use to analyze TRIN by itself had a short-term buy signal at yesterday's close. This signal can also be effectively used with the XIV & UVXY etf's. If you took this trade yesterday at the close, XIV gapped down at the open today for an opening loss of -2.87%. To me this strong opening gap down meant to exit the XIV trade, and buy its opposite leveraged etf UVXY as close to the open as possible. If you were able to execute this at or close to the opening prices, the XIV loss was totally wiped out, because UVXY has been as high as +9.6% up from the open. Choosing to use the unleveraged VXX etf would mean a more modest 1+% net gain at the moment.
At the moment the TRIN itself has been above 0.99 (Connors used 1.00) now for six straight days. Statistically this is an unusual occurence over the past 11+ years of data that I keep. The first potential Long signal came at the end of the 3rd day. That was a one day Long trade for me using ADRE that made a modest profit. If this 6th day above 0.99 holds up, I would look at this as a potential new Long TRIN signal at today's close.
VIX is currently up 16+% on the day after being up more than 22% earlier. Obviously this is an extreme one day move on the heels of yesterday's 7.2% move up. The RSI-2 value on the Vix is currently 99.16%. The other indicator components I use on my VIX chart are also currently providing a Long signal
Both the NYA and Dow now have RSI-2 values of less than 2.5%. The Dow is at 1.74%. 1798-1801 is a key support area for the SPX. This is the 4th straight down day for the Dow
I had some questions emailed to me about what I posted about RSI-2 index values. Yesterday I commented on the 1 day 80+ point RSI-2 difference between the RUT and Dow as being a 1 day long signal for me. Obviously that Long trade is not working out today even though there were multiple pieces of technical data that I look at that provided a basis for taking a long trade at yesterday's close. This is the 6th such 80+ point RSI-2 trade so far in 2014. This trade would be the 2nd losing trade in 2014. The previous loser was only down a penny. Using the 200% RUT funds this simple approach was up 7.36% for 2014 going into today. The current decline in RUT would take approx 4.3% from this YTD gain - still better than the overall market YTD. In 2013 there were 48 trades using this 1 day approach. Of these, 15 were losing trades. Using the 200% RUT funds for trading, the strategy gained 39.70% on a stand alone basis. In 2012 there were just 15 trades with 4 losers that produced a gain of just over 20% on a stand alone basis. This is just one piece of short-term data that I look at to supplement the longer term pieces like Matt's BPT-MA and Spy Pro.
Oversold and overbought can remain
Posted by steve on 24th of Jan 2014 at 01:58 pm
Oversold and overbought can remain so in strong trends and that's why I suggest waiting for a TRIGGER. Natgas is another great example.
The Dow has a current
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 02:53 pm
The Dow has a current RSI-2 value of 1.48 and is down for the 4th consecutive day. Within the last 2 years the Dow has had patterns of being down 5 and 6 days before rallying.
From Nov 27 to Dec 5th the Dow had RSI-2 closes of 94.82, 62.96, 10.90, 3.63, 2.68, and 1.10. So this is the lowest reading since then. From August 13th thru the 21st the Dow had a 6 down day pattern that ended with a reading of 0.37%. These two patterns were the lowest RSI-2 readings going back to 12-28-12 at 1.65%. If you ignored the 65% RSI-2 limit that Larry Connors suggested in his original Trin strategy, all of the possible Trin trades made money in 2013.
There were 2 TRIN patterns in 2012 where a 2nd signal occured just 3 days after the first one triggered. On 5-9-12 the 2nd Trin occured on a day where the RSI-2 value for the Dow was 0.87%. The next trading day there was divergence within the 8 RSI-2 index values I track. So that made it a one day trade.
On 7-10-12 the 2nd Trin signal came on a day where the Dow was at an RSI-2 value of 8.26%. That time the Dow closed lower for 2 more days before rallying higher. Taking that trade did make money by closing out on the 13th.
The $NYA has a current RSI-2 reading of 1.97%. Taking a long trade when RSI-2 values are below 2.50% has a very good statistical probability of making money over the 13 years of data that I have studied. Scaling in, as Matt does with Spy Pro, improves those odds even more. Are there exceptions to this?....of course.
At the moment there are also excellent high probability 60 min chart "squeeze" patterns on all 8 major indexes that I look at each day. For me I want to put together mutiple pieces of technial data that make it statistically likely that a trade can make money.
regarding TRIN & RSI-2
Posted by junkie on 25th of Jan 2014 at 02:45 am
With MA(9) on the daily at 16270 on the Dow, what would be your exit strategy for the original RSI-2 system? Or the system expects a close above 16270 to exit a long trade?