seasonality predictably plays a role in bonds too. April
seems to be the time you would want to buy bonds (seems they bottom
prior to stock peaks in May). Pretty amazing -- 7 years
straight of strong seasonality. It's like this market is run
by computers or something
Watch those long bonds. Looks like they are about to breakout to
new highs. The seasonality in long bonds for the last 7 years
has been quite predictable -- bonds rally hard in the spring into
summer.
yes, I agree. 2.2 is conservative, could go lower.
While I see very smart people argue for a rising yield,
falling stock environment, there has not been a week to prove it in
many years. Maybe that changes. Summer to fall of 2008
(height of the bear market), saw yields plunge from 4.8% to 2.55%.
Could we drop 40-50% in yields from here over this summer?
Maybe 1.6% is in the cards in the next year? As bizarre
as that sounds, nobody would have predicted 3% yields five years
ago.
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probably overshoot
30 year bond yield
Posted by hazbin1 on 26th of Apr 2013 at 09:44 am
sub 2.0% would be my guess... but when is the real question???
seasonality predictably plays a role
Posted by kalinm on 26th of Apr 2013 at 10:01 am
seasonality predictably plays a role in bonds too. April seems to be the time you would want to buy bonds (seems they bottom prior to stock peaks in May). Pretty amazing -- 7 years straight of strong seasonality. It's like this market is run by computers or something
Watch those long bonds. Looks
Posted by kalinm on 1st of May 2013 at 09:26 am
Watch those long bonds. Looks like they are about to breakout to new highs. The seasonality in long bonds for the last 7 years has been quite predictable -- bonds rally hard in the spring into summer.
yes, I agree. 2.2 is
Posted by kalinm on 26th of Apr 2013 at 09:48 am
yes, I agree. 2.2 is conservative, could go lower. While I see very smart people argue for a rising yield, falling stock environment, there has not been a week to prove it in many years. Maybe that changes. Summer to fall of 2008 (height of the bear market), saw yields plunge from 4.8% to 2.55%. Could we drop 40-50% in yields from here over this summer? Maybe 1.6% is in the cards in the next year? As bizarre as that sounds, nobody would have predicted 3% yields five years ago.