I agree that the $SPX monthly chart has so much strength right
now that it argues for 6-9 more months of bull market (at best), a
wild choppy mess while not losing much ground (at worst). But
what is strange is that the last two weeks have pushed many
countries and sectors into decent bear markets. $TSX, FXI,
EWZ -- those are all the china growth play. Their monthlies
(according to the same indicators you are looking at for SPX), look
terrible (I think). Could you look at the same and tell me
what you think? How long can the $SPX keep diverging from the
other markets? I remember in 2008, TSX and EWZ were the safe
haven trade based on commodities (and out of REITs). Now,
ironically, REITs are the safe haven (at levels far higher than
2008, go figure).
kalinm...approximately 75% of the world markets are in
downtrends. This is not supportive of big extensions on the SPX
currently but my advice is to avoid extrapolating every other
index, sector and focus on the price action in what one is trading.
If it reverses, then adjust accordingly.
I hear ya Steve -- good advice. I will go out on a limb
and say that while 2007 saw a 7 day burst to new all time highs, if
we sell off more this afternoon and lose the 1576 pivot (and prior
all time high), and a 3 day squeeze was all we had...... again, a
big "if" at this point and not really worth pontificating about too
much. However, even if we do lose 1576, it did this in 2007
(lost the high briefly), then came back another time in the
following days.
Title: Monthly chart strength Matt, I agree
Posted by kalinm on 12th of Apr 2013 at 11:46 am
Matt,
I agree that the $SPX monthly chart has so much strength right now that it argues for 6-9 more months of bull market (at best), a wild choppy mess while not losing much ground (at worst). But what is strange is that the last two weeks have pushed many countries and sectors into decent bear markets. $TSX, FXI, EWZ -- those are all the china growth play. Their monthlies (according to the same indicators you are looking at for SPX), look terrible (I think). Could you look at the same and tell me what you think? How long can the $SPX keep diverging from the other markets? I remember in 2008, TSX and EWZ were the safe haven trade based on commodities (and out of REITs). Now, ironically, REITs are the safe haven (at levels far higher than 2008, go figure).
kalinm...approximately 75% of the world
Posted by steve on 12th of Apr 2013 at 12:05 pm
kalinm...approximately 75% of the world markets are in downtrends. This is not supportive of big extensions on the SPX currently but my advice is to avoid extrapolating every other index, sector and focus on the price action in what one is trading. If it reverses, then adjust accordingly.
I hear ya Steve --
Posted by kalinm on 12th of Apr 2013 at 12:28 pm
I hear ya Steve -- good advice. I will go out on a limb and say that while 2007 saw a 7 day burst to new all time highs, if we sell off more this afternoon and lose the 1576 pivot (and prior all time high), and a 3 day squeeze was all we had...... again, a big "if" at this point and not really worth pontificating about too much. However, even if we do lose 1576, it did this in 2007 (lost the high briefly), then came back another time in the following days.
Great Question kalinm
Posted by iaranger on 12th of Apr 2013 at 11:53 am