The odds of it retesting that important of a support trendline
are 80%+ I hate to make that definitive of a statement, but
the market defies all odds. See right now everyone and their
brother sees a bad market so they have short orders and sell orders
going in for tomorrow. Once everyone knows something it
rarely follows through immediately. If that is the case we
should churn around for a day or two to let everyone get short, and
then bounce up to retest the trendline and even poking our head
through it a little bit to scare everyone out of their short
positions and possibly even turning people long. Then it will
be time to fall again. That has been how the market has
worked in the past, grinding away hurting the most amount of
people.
The other option could be this drop caught people off guard so
we could be entering a new phase now; where the blood doesnt stop
until everyone surrenders. Personally I entered short
positions when we broke through 1260, but I only had the nerve to
take on 35% because I had to give huge stop points.
Thankfully my 401Ks have been in 70% using leveraged funds.
If (fingers crossed) we get a retest of 1260-1265 I will move 100%
short. Otherwise my extra day of vacation cost me an
incredible amount of money.... :(
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Title: imho The odds of it
Gross predicts Dow 5,000 September 6, 2002 (CNN/Money) The manager of ...
Posted by cwa82675 on 4th of Sep 2008 at 09:49 pm
The odds of it retesting that important of a support trendline are 80%+ I hate to make that definitive of a statement, but the market defies all odds. See right now everyone and their brother sees a bad market so they have short orders and sell orders going in for tomorrow. Once everyone knows something it rarely follows through immediately. If that is the case we should churn around for a day or two to let everyone get short, and then bounce up to retest the trendline and even poking our head through it a little bit to scare everyone out of their short positions and possibly even turning people long. Then it will be time to fall again. That has been how the market has worked in the past, grinding away hurting the most amount of people.
The other option could be this drop caught people off guard so we could be entering a new phase now; where the blood doesnt stop until everyone surrenders. Personally I entered short positions when we broke through 1260, but I only had the nerve to take on 35% because I had to give huge stop points. Thankfully my 401Ks have been in 70% using leveraged funds. If (fingers crossed) we get a retest of 1260-1265 I will move 100% short. Otherwise my extra day of vacation cost me an incredible amount of money.... :(