Do you believe we retest (Backtest) to 1260 on S&P or
not? I didn't want to go short until we back test to confirm
the move down. Is this the wrong approach and did I miss my
entry point?
The odds of it retesting that important of a support trendline
are 80%+ I hate to make that definitive of a statement, but
the market defies all odds. See right now everyone and their
brother sees a bad market so they have short orders and sell orders
going in for tomorrow. Once everyone knows something it
rarely follows through immediately. If that is the case we
should churn around for a day or two to let everyone get short, and
then bounce up to retest the trendline and even poking our head
through it a little bit to scare everyone out of their short
positions and possibly even turning people long. Then it will
be time to fall again. That has been how the market has
worked in the past, grinding away hurting the most amount of
people.
The other option could be this drop caught people off guard so
we could be entering a new phase now; where the blood doesnt stop
until everyone surrenders. Personally I entered short
positions when we broke through 1260, but I only had the nerve to
take on 35% because I had to give huge stop points.
Thankfully my 401Ks have been in 70% using leveraged funds.
If (fingers crossed) we get a retest of 1260-1265 I will move 100%
short. Otherwise my extra day of vacation cost me an
incredible amount of money.... :(
I heard that MER was going to come out with NO more write downs,
and I thought, this will be a shot in the financial arm,
therefore short the skf....luckily I sold as a hedge cc
strikes 110, 105, 95...so
QCOM....should be bought . Nokia used to buy chips
from Tex instruments....and wil soon anounce switching to QCOM...
check out ALL OF HP's new computers...all with GOBI, which is
QCOM's technology wireless everywhere. no more cords..not
selling a nickel of Q until 60's Qcom will get 50 bucks at least
from HP on every computer.
Wait till apple announces that they will second source their
chips from Qcom.
BTW...congrats on the short selling on apple and qcom...you did
good.
Posted by pcampbell66 on 4th of Sep 2008 at 06:33 pm
I have to say delane...i do not understand your argument or what
you must be thinking to want to short SKF...probabilities favor a
collapse of several large financial institutions is
forthcoming if not imminent - there will be lots more writedowns
and debt issuance - so this thing is probably going to take out the
highs...as i said yesterday, it was not a short. Today, its not
likely a short and i must warn you that its seems like you are
trading with your emotions and brain rather than discipline...I am
glad that you sold covered calls...but I can not see an indicator
that would like me short this thing...trust your indicators first
and then your thoughts and brain and don't get hurt...this is a
VERY dangerous market.
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Steve, Do you believe we retest
Gross predicts Dow 5,000 September 6, 2002 (CNN/Money) The manager of ...
Posted by cspirit on 4th of Sep 2008 at 04:37 pm
Steve,
Do you believe we retest (Backtest) to 1260 on S&P or not? I didn't want to go short until we back test to confirm the move down. Is this the wrong approach and did I miss my entry point?
Thoughts?
Title: imho The odds of it
Posted by cwa82675 on 4th of Sep 2008 at 09:49 pm
The odds of it retesting that important of a support trendline are 80%+ I hate to make that definitive of a statement, but the market defies all odds. See right now everyone and their brother sees a bad market so they have short orders and sell orders going in for tomorrow. Once everyone knows something it rarely follows through immediately. If that is the case we should churn around for a day or two to let everyone get short, and then bounce up to retest the trendline and even poking our head through it a little bit to scare everyone out of their short positions and possibly even turning people long. Then it will be time to fall again. That has been how the market has worked in the past, grinding away hurting the most amount of people.
The other option could be this drop caught people off guard so we could be entering a new phase now; where the blood doesnt stop until everyone surrenders. Personally I entered short positions when we broke through 1260, but I only had the nerve to take on 35% because I had to give huge stop points. Thankfully my 401Ks have been in 70% using leveraged funds. If (fingers crossed) we get a retest of 1260-1265 I will move 100% short. Otherwise my extra day of vacation cost me an incredible amount of money.... :(
yeah, Im with you
Posted by delane on 4th of Sep 2008 at 04:50 pm
I heard that MER was going to come out with NO more write downs, and I thought, this will be a shot in the financial arm, therefore short the skf....luckily I sold as a hedge cc strikes 110, 105, 95...so
QCOM....should be bought . Nokia used to buy chips from Tex instruments....and wil soon anounce switching to QCOM... check out ALL OF HP's new computers...all with GOBI, which is QCOM's technology wireless everywhere. no more cords..not selling a nickel of Q until 60's Qcom will get 50 bucks at least from HP on every computer.
Wait till apple announces that they will second source their chips from Qcom.
BTW...congrats on the short selling on apple and qcom...you did good.
I have to say delane...i
Posted by pcampbell66 on 4th of Sep 2008 at 06:33 pm
I have to say delane...i do not understand your argument or what you must be thinking to want to short SKF...probabilities favor a collapse of several large financial institutions is forthcoming if not imminent - there will be lots more writedowns and debt issuance - so this thing is probably going to take out the highs...as i said yesterday, it was not a short. Today, its not likely a short and i must warn you that its seems like you are trading with your emotions and brain rather than discipline...I am glad that you sold covered calls...but I can not see an indicator that would like me short this thing...trust your indicators first and then your thoughts and brain and don't get hurt...this is a VERY dangerous market.