Posted by chartboy on 12th of Jun 2012 at 07:50 am
No problem...To follow up, here is what I was talking about when
it comes to "reading".
Clearly the market closed in a very weak position last night
with the short term chart indicating a possible target down near
the gap fill if we broke out of the four day range. However,
instead we are seeing a little strength this morning.
That lets me know that the market is becoming a bit more
two sided here. It also tells me, more than likely, yesterdays late
day push down was more about taking out the stops below the last
swing low from a few days ago. Finally, the
continued weakness of US bonds, (strength in
TBT), also indicates that, for the time being, fear has subsided
quite a bit since last week.
Barring any fast unforeseen changes all of these items lend
credence to the idea that we are trying to form a right shoulder in
the potential inverse H&S pattern via a higher divergent low in
the next week or so.
Taking it one step further, one thing to always keep in mind in
a potential bear market...inverse H&S shoulder patterns often
form in bear markets. Then, they either break out and reverse
quickly or fail all together. Point being, the play book that would
frustrate the most people here would be to see a higher low form
here as the right shoulder, then the inverse H&S would set up
and potentially even break out..but instead of leading to a large
move higher...it simply serves as a bull trap.
Just one series of possibilities to watch.
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No problem...To follow up, here
5 min SPX
Posted by chartboy on 12th of Jun 2012 at 07:50 am
No problem...To follow up, here is what I was talking about when it comes to "reading".
Clearly the market closed in a very weak position last night with the short term chart indicating a possible target down near the gap fill if we broke out of the four day range. However, instead we are seeing a little strength this morning. That lets me know that the market is becoming a bit more two sided here. It also tells me, more than likely, yesterdays late day push down was more about taking out the stops below the last swing low from a few days ago. Finally, the continued weakness of US bonds, (strength in TBT), also indicates that, for the time being, fear has subsided quite a bit since last week.
Barring any fast unforeseen changes all of these items lend credence to the idea that we are trying to form a right shoulder in the potential inverse H&S pattern via a higher divergent low in the next week or so.
Taking it one step further, one thing to always keep in mind in a potential bear market...inverse H&S shoulder patterns often form in bear markets. Then, they either break out and reverse quickly or fail all together. Point being, the play book that would frustrate the most people here would be to see a higher low form here as the right shoulder, then the inverse H&S would set up and potentially even break out..but instead of leading to a large move higher...it simply serves as a bull trap.
Just one series of possibilities to watch.