RP--I dont know if this helps but I follow the weather with
accuweather--pro site
subscription service
This guy is good
THE WEATHER LESSON CONTINUES.
GFS is continuing to shift east Fays track. Now it appears the
one almost impossible forecast is no longer on the table (
intensifying storm up the west coast of Florida) and the Drudge
report has changed their headline from its threat to Tampa as it
had last night to Florida. Looking that the wind field with the
recon showing a large area of 50kt plus winds northeast of the
center...better watch out in Miami.
But the GFS being the GFS is now trying for the Dora (1964)
scenario as it takes the storm on the path I have to off north
Florida, then turns it west into the old coast of northeast
Florida. For more likely is the hit on the coast further north,
from Ga north.
I used the term "relocate" because if a position at 2 am is at
81.1 and then at 5 am is 80.9, it can not be "moving" north
northwest as the second one is further east than the first. It was
not meant to be sarcastic, but to state the truth as per the
positions given. Either the storm had to be relocated, or it is
moving east of north but not moving north northwest with the
relocation.
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Posted by arl3080 on 18th of Aug 2008 at 08:15 am
RP--I dont know if this helps but I follow the weather with accuweather--pro site
subscription service
This guy is good
THE WEATHER LESSON CONTINUES.
GFS is continuing to shift east Fays track. Now it appears the one almost impossible forecast is no longer on the table ( intensifying storm up the west coast of Florida) and the Drudge report has changed their headline from its threat to Tampa as it had last night to Florida. Looking that the wind field with the recon showing a large area of 50kt plus winds northeast of the center...better watch out in Miami.
But the GFS being the GFS is now trying for the Dora (1964) scenario as it takes the storm on the path I have to off north Florida, then turns it west into the old coast of northeast Florida. For more likely is the hit on the coast further north, from Ga north.
I used the term "relocate" because if a position at 2 am is at 81.1 and then at 5 am is 80.9, it can not be "moving" north northwest as the second one is further east than the first. It was not meant to be sarcastic, but to state the truth as per the positions given. Either the storm had to be relocated, or it is moving east of north but not moving north northwest with the relocation.