I will try to ask the question, but I sense I am stumbling to
ask the correct question. As a learning student to stock
investing, I want to know, when and how do I determine, to rotate
my investments from growth to dividends? Or maybe another way to
ask, when should I change my newsletter subscription from a growth
newsletter to dividend newsletter?
I understand growth vs. dividends depend on the personal
investment styles. But beyond that, here are some of my thoughts I
am trying to understand, to answer "WHEN & HOW" investment
rotation.
The country’s GDP above or below 2%. But the GDP forecast are
slow and usually incorrect.
Corporation’s quarterly earnings forecast. But where would I get
a total summary, or is this the country’s GDP forecast?
Maybe a monthly S&P500 chart with a long moving average?
Maybe when S&P dividend’s forecast is greater then the GDP
forecast?
Most of us here prefer to try to stay with the market trend in
one way or another. The main difference between most of us is
the time frame that we trade in to the strategies that we use to
try to capture profits. So in that sense most of us here
would prefer not to be in stocks when they are moving down unless
we are shorting them or playing short counter-trend moves.
Personally, I would not like to be in dividend stocks, defensive
stocks or growth stocks in a bear market. If you are a new
investor my advice is to watch Matt's long term and other signals
and go to cash when we are in downtrends. It's not exciting
but not losing money is the most important rule of investing.
Making it is secondary only after you don't lose it.
Making 1/2 percent on your money is always better than losing
20%. Besides your money buys a lot more stocks at the
bottom of a bear market. But in the mean time protect it.
For now, start learning. You're at the right place.
Posted by lessarda on 12th of Aug 2011 at 07:05 pm
In terms of value and price, the great buy and sell points have
been more or less together throughout history. Charles Dow didn't
want to own stocks when index yields were under 3% and did want to
buy over with index yields over 6%. Looking at yields at major
market highs and lows shows the wisdom of such an approach (2009
would have had you cautious on this metric alone, but maybe it
wasn't a
majorlow).
If you're talking about defensive sector rotation from high beta
to healthcare, staples utilities, for instance, that tends to be a
leading indicator of when to sell everything and it started in
March/April this year.
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Investment Question
Posted by ameritrader on 12th of Aug 2011 at 04:36 pm
I have a question
I will try to ask the question, but I sense I am stumbling to ask the correct question. As a learning student to stock investing, I want to know, when and how do I determine, to rotate my investments from growth to dividends? Or maybe another way to ask, when should I change my newsletter subscription from a growth newsletter to dividend newsletter?
I understand growth vs. dividends depend on the personal investment styles. But beyond that, here are some of my thoughts I am trying to understand, to answer "WHEN & HOW" investment rotation.
The country’s GDP above or below 2%. But the GDP forecast are slow and usually incorrect.
Corporation’s quarterly earnings forecast. But where would I get a total summary, or is this the country’s GDP forecast?
Maybe a monthly S&P500 chart with a long moving average?
Maybe when S&P dividend’s forecast is greater then the GDP forecast?
When the market is going sideways?
I am confused, HELP!
thanks
Good Question, tough answer
Posted by johnc on 12th of Aug 2011 at 07:35 pm
Most of us here prefer to try to stay with the market trend in one way or another. The main difference between most of us is the time frame that we trade in to the strategies that we use to try to capture profits. So in that sense most of us here would prefer not to be in stocks when they are moving down unless we are shorting them or playing short counter-trend moves.
Personally, I would not like to be in dividend stocks, defensive stocks or growth stocks in a bear market. If you are a new investor my advice is to watch Matt's long term and other signals and go to cash when we are in downtrends. It's not exciting but not losing money is the most important rule of investing. Making it is secondary only after you don't lose it.
Making 1/2 percent on your money is always better than losing 20%. Besides your money buys a lot more stocks at the bottom of a bear market. But in the mean time protect it.
For now, start learning. You're at the right place.
john
What if the answer isn't either / or?
Posted by lessarda on 12th of Aug 2011 at 07:05 pm
In terms of value and price, the great buy and sell points have been more or less together throughout history. Charles Dow didn't want to own stocks when index yields were under 3% and did want to buy over with index yields over 6%. Looking at yields at major market highs and lows shows the wisdom of such an approach (2009 would have had you cautious on this metric alone, but maybe it wasn't a majorlow).
If you're talking about defensive sector rotation from high beta to healthcare, staples utilities, for instance, that tends to be a leading indicator of when to sell everything and it started in March/April this year.