Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 09:40 pm
honestly, I'm just using that 5 min as one of the last pieces of
the puzzle for the next decline to "start"....as you say, once it
starts we'll see where it goes from there....my favored path is a
move back down to sub 1290 and then back up to a new yearly high
(that's not looking like what the market wants right now
though).....
marketguy - I understand regarding the 5 minute but what are the
first pieces to the puzzle? Do you have a confirmed sell signal on
a higher time frame? I certainly don't have one as yet.
The key level is just overhead at 1331-1334 area. If the SPX
clears this I would not want to be short.
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:23 pm
I definitely agree with the 1331-1334 area (remember at the end
of the day I think we are going to 1400+)....problem is (which is
what I'm good at..."not!") is I think we are going back down one
more time before the final re-launch.....
here's a chart of what I follow in the way of daily
signals...so, yes, at this point it is still on a sell
signal....not perfect, but given the decline right off the original
signal usually there should be a buy signal before reversing (which
we've yet to see)....
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:31 pm
johnsa,
obviously nothing is certain but here's where I think the path
"may" lay....posted it last week...
a break below the purple arrow would put 1400+ in doubt (a break
below the red arrows would all but kill the idea of 1400+)....
however, until then that's my preferred path ("hopefully" after
1 more decline to the rising uptrend line)....of course, the
futures tonight have a completely different plan in mind....
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honestly, I'm just using that
another....
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 09:40 pm
honestly, I'm just using that 5 min as one of the last pieces of the puzzle for the next decline to "start"....as you say, once it starts we'll see where it goes from there....my favored path is a move back down to sub 1290 and then back up to a new yearly high (that's not looking like what the market wants right now though).....
marketguy - I understand regarding
Posted by steve on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:08 pm
marketguy - I understand regarding the 5 minute but what are the first pieces to the puzzle? Do you have a confirmed sell signal on a higher time frame? I certainly don't have one as yet. The key level is just overhead at 1331-1334 area. If the SPX clears this I would not want to be short.
I definitely agree with the
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:23 pm
I definitely agree with the 1331-1334 area (remember at the end of the day I think we are going to 1400+)....problem is (which is what I'm good at..."not!") is I think we are going back down one more time before the final re-launch.....
here's a chart of what I follow in the way of daily signals...so, yes, at this point it is still on a sell signal....not perfect, but given the decline right off the original signal usually there should be a buy signal before reversing (which we've yet to see)....
Why are you so confident
Posted by johnsa on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:26 pm
Why are you so confident of the 1400+ thing? Is it based on technical reasoning or some other scenario?
johnsa, obviously nothing is certain but
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Jul 2011 at 10:31 pm
johnsa,
obviously nothing is certain but here's where I think the path "may" lay....posted it last week...
a break below the purple arrow would put 1400+ in doubt (a break below the red arrows would all but kill the idea of 1400+)....
however, until then that's my preferred path ("hopefully" after 1 more decline to the rising uptrend line)....of course, the futures tonight have a completely different plan in mind....