The mechanical systems entered trades when a short term trend
has already been established. What happens is that a lot of the
times the market is overbought or oversold when they entered their
positions. They would sometimes end up going long at resistance or
short at support. It's the opposite of what I would normally do. As
a result, there's a propensity for whipsaws when volatility is low
because they would enter positions when the trend is close to
changing. Imo, these systems will work well again when volatility
increases. When volatility increases, the market makes bigger
moves, and their will be more follow through on moves. Right now,
this FED manipulated rally has sapped volatility.
I haven't watched the videos for the new system. But from just
looking at the previous entries, the new system differs from the
mechanical systems because it takes a somewhat opposite approach.
It doesn't go long when the market is overbought or short when
oversold. Instead, it identifies what the main trend is. For
example, currently the trend is up. It would go long on the next
pullback. This is why the system has worked so well during the POMO
environment. The smart move during this rally has been buying the
pullbacks, and that's what the system has been doing. Once the
market tops out, most of the entries will be shorting the
bounces.
One observation I would like to point out is that the first
entry of a trend change could very likely be a loser. For example,
let's say the system goes long on the next pullback. If it turns
out we topped, then it could turn out to be a loser. I'm just
taking a hypothetical scenario. I'm favoring consolidation or a
pullback from here before another move higher.
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Title: Systems The mechanical systems entered
Profession SPY Swing Trade System comments
Posted by cw12 on 25th of Apr 2011 at 12:19 pm
The mechanical systems entered trades when a short term trend has already been established. What happens is that a lot of the times the market is overbought or oversold when they entered their positions. They would sometimes end up going long at resistance or short at support. It's the opposite of what I would normally do. As a result, there's a propensity for whipsaws when volatility is low because they would enter positions when the trend is close to changing. Imo, these systems will work well again when volatility increases. When volatility increases, the market makes bigger moves, and their will be more follow through on moves. Right now, this FED manipulated rally has sapped volatility.
I haven't watched the videos for the new system. But from just looking at the previous entries, the new system differs from the mechanical systems because it takes a somewhat opposite approach. It doesn't go long when the market is overbought or short when oversold. Instead, it identifies what the main trend is. For example, currently the trend is up. It would go long on the next pullback. This is why the system has worked so well during the POMO environment. The smart move during this rally has been buying the pullbacks, and that's what the system has been doing. Once the market tops out, most of the entries will be shorting the bounces.
One observation I would like to point out is that the first entry of a trend change could very likely be a loser. For example, let's say the system goes long on the next pullback. If it turns out we topped, then it could turn out to be a loser. I'm just taking a hypothetical scenario. I'm favoring consolidation or a pullback from here before another move higher.