The positive jobs report provided the expected jolt of energy
into the gold market, but it was not enough to break prices out of
this long consolidation pattern.
The knee-jerk reaction to the addition of 230,000 private sector
jobs in March was a quick sell-off down to again tag the $1,412
energy level, which once again showed itself to be a particularly
strong "hot zone." This is now the 4th time that gold has rebounded
off $1,412, and each time it has spent very little time trading
around this level.
But again, the jury is still out on how this consolidation
period will resolve.
Obviously the first part of this new timing cycle is turning out
to be a consolidation pattern, and lately it's been doing a great
job of hanging up near the highs. But we've learned with this gold
pattern that this doesn't count for much, as the break is actually
more likely to come to the downside after a triangle pattern. The
upside moves tend to go, and go, and keep on going.
The thing about a consolidation pattern, particularly a long
one, is that you can make a convincing case for the next trend to
come in either direction. So I think we have to fall back on the
where gold is in the bigger cycle, and clearly here in 2011 gold
has not been responding as it did earlier in the growth pattern.
We've seen uprisings in the Middle East, bombing missions in Libya,
a massive earthquake in Japan with a nuclear component, and still
gold has not been able to respond as it did from 2005 to 2010.
The likely conclusion is the cycle is shifting, but it's
undergoing a long, rounded transition period, rather than the
straight-up, straight-down end of cycle pattern that is frequently
seen. I believe this means the straight-up, straight-down pattern
is still in gold's future, but that it will be delayed until gold
works through a period of growing confidence that the Fed and the
government finally have the economy headed in the right
direction.
This guy has been really bad the last several months. I
think it was in December that he was calling for $1900 gold on this
latest surge. Then when that didn't happen, he has started calling
for the great "crash" in gold all the way down to $920 or
so.
perthx, I'm with searay on this one, I would not have found BPT
without 'intell' from another player. for those of us who have been
in this game a long time, it''s great to 'hear' of experiences that
BPTers have with other sites/newsletters. Over the years,
I've wasted too much time and money weeding thru the minefields.
BPT was a great find.
you are the ONLY member to make a positive offering about other
letter writers and look how short compared to all the bashing that
goes on...kiss up to searay all you want but leave me out of
it.
Sentimentrader and McClellan (for him you have to
'interpolate'), I use them (note: this is NOT an advertisement for
another site -
). there is another for ES futures,
but you have to PM me for him.
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Commodities
Posted by tims69 on 4th of Apr 2011 at 08:49 am
The positive jobs report provided the expected jolt of energy into the gold market, but it was not enough to break prices out of this long consolidation pattern.
The knee-jerk reaction to the addition of 230,000 private sector jobs in March was a quick sell-off down to again tag the $1,412 energy level, which once again showed itself to be a particularly strong "hot zone." This is now the 4th time that gold has rebounded off $1,412, and each time it has spent very little time trading around this level.
But again, the jury is still out on how this consolidation period will resolve.
Obviously the first part of this new timing cycle is turning out to be a consolidation pattern, and lately it's been doing a great job of hanging up near the highs. But we've learned with this gold pattern that this doesn't count for much, as the break is actually more likely to come to the downside after a triangle pattern. The upside moves tend to go, and go, and keep on going.
The thing about a consolidation pattern, particularly a long one, is that you can make a convincing case for the next trend to come in either direction. So I think we have to fall back on the where gold is in the bigger cycle, and clearly here in 2011 gold has not been responding as it did earlier in the growth pattern. We've seen uprisings in the Middle East, bombing missions in Libya, a massive earthquake in Japan with a nuclear component, and still gold has not been able to respond as it did from 2005 to 2010.
The likely conclusion is the cycle is shifting, but it's undergoing a long, rounded transition period, rather than the straight-up, straight-down end of cycle pattern that is frequently seen. I believe this means the straight-up, straight-down pattern is still in gold's future, but that it will be delayed until gold works through a period of growing confidence that the Fed and the government finally have the economy headed in the right direction.
This guy has been really
Posted by parrrich on 4th of Apr 2011 at 09:04 am
This guy has been really bad the last several months. I think it was in December that he was calling for $1900 gold on this latest surge. Then when that didn't happen, he has started calling for the great "crash" in gold all the way down to $920 or so.
so many bad letter writers
Posted by perthx on 4th of Apr 2011 at 09:36 am
So many people here LOVE to bash newsletter writers who call the markets, and mostly do a poor job it seems
Is there ANYBODY out there you guys find helpful or useful in addition to Matt and Steve? Or is it all about the bashing?
Several. Members are pointing them
Posted by searay on 4th of Apr 2011 at 09:50 am
Several. Members are pointing them out to make other members aware of their calls. Its good.
alternate views on other sites
Posted by hazbin1 on 4th of Apr 2011 at 10:00 am
perthx, I'm with searay on this one, I would not have found BPT without 'intell' from another player. for those of us who have been in this game a long time, it''s great to 'hear' of experiences that BPTers have with other sites/newsletters. Over the years, I've wasted too much time and money weeding thru the minefields. BPT was a great find.
hazbin
Posted by perthx on 4th of Apr 2011 at 10:04 am
you are the ONLY member to make a positive offering about other letter writers and look how short compared to all the bashing that goes on...kiss up to searay all you want but leave me out of it.
Not bashing, just staing the
Posted by parrrich on 4th of Apr 2011 at 09:44 am
Not bashing, just staing the facts amid full disclosure before someone reads fractal's comments and follows him blindly.
since you asked
Posted by hazbin1 on 4th of Apr 2011 at 09:38 am
Sentimentrader and McClellan (for him you have to 'interpolate'), I use them (note: this is NOT an advertisement for another site - ). there is another for ES futures, but you have to PM me for him.