Posted by lastchance on 5th of Feb 2011 at 07:46 pm
Mamaduck,
I understand that saturn6's chart is implying the possibility of
gdx falling - as we are potentially at the peak of the right
shoulder.
I understand that your first chart is implying that the
gold:silver price could potentially start to rise from here - which
I suppose implies that the price of gold could start increasing
relative to silver.
However your 2nd and 3rd charts are potentially implying that
the gdxj:gdx could start to fall from here - does this mean that
the gold price would increase or decrease?
Your comment about the 'opposite possibility' and your first
chart probably means that your 2nd and 3rd charts are also implying
that the gold price could increase but I just wanted to
confirm.
Basically these 3 charts together with Saturn's chart imply that
we are at an inflexion point. We could go either way. While the
potential H&S's imply a major drop, the ratio chart of
Gold:Silver implies we are either at support and it has to reverse
up (hence confirming Saturn's H&S) or it is going to break
support and head down massively, which means a major breakout in
gold and GDX to the upside.
The GDXJ:GDX charts also say the same thing. While the ratio
chart is showing we are at the resistance of an ascending wedge
that could break to the downside and hence major decline, the other
chart shows an ascending triangle that if it breaks to the upside,
it will mean major move up.
The other indicators (RSI, MACD) also imply either an overshoot
(which will result in major reversal to the downside) or that a
breakout has already happened. But as Matt and Steve always say,
price is King.
The best thing is not to over-think it. Just be aware that
gold has not decided which way to go yet, and either way it goes,
it will be large.
The outlook is very muddy for gold from where I stand. This
chart shows we have had a Wm% buy signal but I only used it to
cover most trading shorts as we are still in a downtrend on the RSI
and pitchfork - downtrend channel. I have played long on this move
up but only off 15Min charts.
The 'Harami' plotted friday at resistance and close to the 34ema
while RSI has bumped into the RSI 50 line from below and left a
hook may auger further weakness this week. If not it would indicate
a rather bulllish stance. Also note the Gold:Gdx ratio looks to be
'Bull-Flagging'.
However if we do breakout to the upside there are still several
layers of resistance to surmount but it would mean the RSI would
regain the 50 line and that has to be viewed as a bullish
achievement.
I am still uber long bullion and 80% of it Silver bullion. And
trade around it shorter term. I have still some of my april puts
open, and spreadbet shorter term moves, but am flat at prsent.
I have $1260 as a potential target for this correction...
Saturn, I am with you 100%. I too am long bullion and miners
long term. Short term I see gold needing to correct more (as matt
had suggested). The main wild card here is Egypt, and the markets
have priced that in. Hence the charts are "muddy". We are at
resistance, but also some potential for massive breakout.
I suspect if Egypt erupts, then gold will take off (perhaps to
1400 and then come back to retest this area. If on the other hand
it stays the same (or at least does not erupt), then gold will go
down one more time.
Not sure about 1260. I suspect 1300 will be major support. If it
goes lower, it will probably be very sharp and very short. Maybe
time to put some GTC orders in.
Ratio charts
GDX - Multiple H&S Top?...
Posted by mamaduck on 5th of Feb 2011 at 06:55 pm
Saturn6 also keep an eye on these for the opposite possibility.
Mamaduck, I understand that saturn6's chart
Posted by lastchance on 5th of Feb 2011 at 07:46 pm
Mamaduck,
I understand that saturn6's chart is implying the possibility of gdx falling - as we are potentially at the peak of the right shoulder.
I understand that your first chart is implying that the gold:silver price could potentially start to rise from here - which I suppose implies that the price of gold could start increasing relative to silver.
However your 2nd and 3rd charts are potentially implying that the gdxj:gdx could start to fall from here - does this mean that the gold price would increase or decrease?
Your comment about the 'opposite possibility' and your first chart probably means that your 2nd and 3rd charts are also implying that the gold price could increase but I just wanted to confirm.
Thanks.
Gold, GDX and Ratio Charts
Posted by mamaduck on 5th of Feb 2011 at 08:17 pm
Basically these 3 charts together with Saturn's chart imply that we are at an inflexion point. We could go either way. While the potential H&S's imply a major drop, the ratio chart of Gold:Silver implies we are either at support and it has to reverse up (hence confirming Saturn's H&S) or it is going to break support and head down massively, which means a major breakout in gold and GDX to the upside.
The GDXJ:GDX charts also say the same thing. While the ratio chart is showing we are at the resistance of an ascending wedge that could break to the downside and hence major decline, the other chart shows an ascending triangle that if it breaks to the upside, it will mean major move up.
The other indicators (RSI, MACD) also imply either an overshoot (which will result in major reversal to the downside) or that a breakout has already happened. But as Matt and Steve always say, price is King.
The best thing is not to over-think it. Just be aware that gold has not decided which way to go yet, and either way it goes, it will be large.
Mamaduck - Good Charts....
Posted by saturn6 on 6th of Feb 2011 at 07:26 am
The outlook is very muddy for gold from where I stand. This chart shows we have had a Wm% buy signal but I only used it to cover most trading shorts as we are still in a downtrend on the RSI and pitchfork - downtrend channel. I have played long on this move up but only off 15Min charts.
The 'Harami' plotted friday at resistance and close to the 34ema while RSI has bumped into the RSI 50 line from below and left a hook may auger further weakness this week. If not it would indicate a rather bulllish stance. Also note the Gold:Gdx ratio looks to be 'Bull-Flagging'.
However if we do breakout to the upside there are still several layers of resistance to surmount but it would mean the RSI would regain the 50 line and that has to be viewed as a bullish achievement.
I am still uber long bullion and 80% of it Silver bullion. And trade around it shorter term. I have still some of my april puts open, and spreadbet shorter term moves, but am flat at prsent.
I have $1260 as a potential target for this correction...
Saturn, I am with you
Posted by mamaduck on 6th of Feb 2011 at 03:48 pm
Saturn, I am with you 100%. I too am long bullion and miners long term. Short term I see gold needing to correct more (as matt had suggested). The main wild card here is Egypt, and the markets have priced that in. Hence the charts are "muddy". We are at resistance, but also some potential for massive breakout.
I suspect if Egypt erupts, then gold will take off (perhaps to 1400 and then come back to retest this area. If on the other hand it stays the same (or at least does not erupt), then gold will go down one more time.
Not sure about 1260. I suspect 1300 will be major support. If it goes lower, it will probably be very sharp and very short. Maybe time to put some GTC orders in.
BUT
Posted by zach06 on 6th of Feb 2011 at 08:27 am
Cramer on CNBC says to buy gold for your Honey for Valentines day.....
zach - I would urge you...
Posted by saturn6 on 6th of Feb 2011 at 01:10 pm
to tune out of the gunk and tune into some soothing and inspirational...
Like This!