Based on my near- and
intermediate-term work, the patter and momentum configuration in
the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) argue that the
price structure hit a spike high this morning at 109.50, reflecting
the flight to safety surge in buying of US Treasury paper despite
the puny yields.While this morning's high might
represent the first of multiple "high-spikes" in the 109-110 area,
I am willing to take a small, initial countertrend position long
the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treas Bond ETF (TBT). That said,
to get preliminary confirmation that a meaningful high in the TLTs
has been established, the price structure needs to violate and
sustain beneath 107.50.From a yield perspective, taking a
shot at a countertrend position in the TBT's has technical
justification. The most recent round of ugly U.S. economic data has
pressed the 10-year yield to a new multi-month low at 2.42%, which
satisfies the measured downside target off of the 10-month top
pattern that broke down at the beginning of July 2010.
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Paulenoff Mid-Day
Posted by Peridot on 25th of Aug 2010 at 02:36 pm
Based on my near- and intermediate-term work, the patter and momentum configuration in the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) argue that the price structure hit a spike high this morning at 109.50, reflecting the flight to safety surge in buying of US Treasury paper despite the puny yields. While this morning's high might represent the first of multiple "high-spikes" in the 109-110 area, I am willing to take a small, initial countertrend position long the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treas Bond ETF (TBT). That said, to get preliminary confirmation that a meaningful high in the TLTs has been established, the price structure needs to violate and sustain beneath 107.50. From a yield perspective, taking a shot at a countertrend position in the TBT's has technical justification. The most recent round of ugly U.S. economic data has pressed the 10-year yield to a new multi-month low at 2.42%, which satisfies the measured downside target off of the 10-month top pattern that broke down at the beginning of July 2010.