Well, I'm done trading. Burned out. So I thought I'd look again
at the LT gold charts. I've posted the wedge with fibs as well as a
very long term with the trend lines and fibs. If the wedge breaks,
it could retrace the entire move, which measures back to the low
700s. It doesn't have to retrace that much -- there are a lot of
support lines before that -- but it can't be ruled out. That would
also tie in pretty well with the longest trend line going back to
the beginning of this bull market.
As a gold bull who likes to accumulate bullion, I ask myself,
what could cause a really deep correction like the wedge implies is
possible. Well, the world could get its fiscal house in order and
fear would disappear and people would have no fear about the
integrity of their currencies. And pigs could fly.
So I think the more likely explanation is that we could be
entering a more terminal phase of debt liquidation where the forces
of deflation simply bring down all asset prices, and I imagine that
gold goes along because many have to sell as part of the massive
unwinding, or simply to be able to sell what they have left that
still has value.
If that's the case, then it really supports the proposition that
the infamous C down is still to play out. I guess that's pretty
much the Prechter secnario.
Maybe it won't happen, and/or maybe the wedge breaks and finds
support long before returning to the 700s, but I think this gold
wedge may potentially be telling us something that is much bigger
than just the implications for gold.
I also think that if we should get this kind of a break, it will
be an incredible opportunity to scale into a lot more gold on the
way down, because this kind of scenario would almost surely lead to
a breakdown in currencies and/or something approaching
hyper-inflation, in which case the next leg up in gold will be even
more powerful that what we've already experienced.
OK, that's enough serious thinking for a Friday.
Best wishes to everyone for a great, long weekend. And here in
the US I hope everyone has a terrific Memorial Day weekend, but
take a moment to remember those who paid the ultimate price.
Long Term Gold Ruminations on a Friday
Posted by puma on 28th of May 2010 at 02:57 pm
Well, I'm done trading. Burned out. So I thought I'd look again at the LT gold charts. I've posted the wedge with fibs as well as a very long term with the trend lines and fibs. If the wedge breaks, it could retrace the entire move, which measures back to the low 700s. It doesn't have to retrace that much -- there are a lot of support lines before that -- but it can't be ruled out. That would also tie in pretty well with the longest trend line going back to the beginning of this bull market.
As a gold bull who likes to accumulate bullion, I ask myself, what could cause a really deep correction like the wedge implies is possible. Well, the world could get its fiscal house in order and fear would disappear and people would have no fear about the integrity of their currencies. And pigs could fly.
So I think the more likely explanation is that we could be entering a more terminal phase of debt liquidation where the forces of deflation simply bring down all asset prices, and I imagine that gold goes along because many have to sell as part of the massive unwinding, or simply to be able to sell what they have left that still has value.
If that's the case, then it really supports the proposition that the infamous C down is still to play out. I guess that's pretty much the Prechter secnario.
Maybe it won't happen, and/or maybe the wedge breaks and finds support long before returning to the 700s, but I think this gold wedge may potentially be telling us something that is much bigger than just the implications for gold.
I also think that if we should get this kind of a break, it will be an incredible opportunity to scale into a lot more gold on the way down, because this kind of scenario would almost surely lead to a breakdown in currencies and/or something approaching hyper-inflation, in which case the next leg up in gold will be even more powerful that what we've already experienced.
OK, that's enough serious thinking for a Friday.
Best wishes to everyone for a great, long weekend. And here in the US I hope everyone has a terrific Memorial Day weekend, but take a moment to remember those who paid the ultimate price.
nice post
Posted by madaneag on 28th of May 2010 at 03:28 pm
thanks puma...
i always read your analysis of gold....!!!
nice post puma..deflation and debt liquidation will rule going forward IMO....I am selling what I can asset wise.
Posted by hurricanemalta on 28th of May 2010 at 03:01 pm
Thank you, Puma
Posted by sankaty on 28th of May 2010 at 03:07 pm