looks like a small 5 wave up of the low today, so watch for a
50-78.6 decline [1095.25-1093.50] and the another rally up to
1100-1105.20 and then another leg down if one is going to
happen....
btw, another successful McClelland Osc signal from Friday. That
and the pinched BB on the 30 and 60 minute SPX charts sure came
through for the large move. Now if there was only a way to predict
which direction with 99% accuracy!
My "very short term guesses" is playing out as thought....
The SPX broke down yesterday into the 1095.25-1093.50
region bottoming at 1094.01 and has now bounced up to my
targeted area at 1103.09....in what looks like 3 waves.I would have
thought we correct the push up and run one more time higher but
doesn't look like it will now having corrected more than .786 of
the run up off the 1094.01 mark.
It can still head higher, but a break of 1094.01 would suggest
the next leg down is in progress.
Presume that 1112.42 was the top of A of wave 2. Then this could
be just the start of a wave B down stretching from 1078.46-1059.03
[50%-78.6%]. The targets suggested earlier still work as the lows
today could have been the end of "a" of B down.
Time wise it fits pretty well because from the 1044 lows, the
market was up 10 trade days and if it were to drop a total of
5-8 trade days that takes us to Friday- Wednesday next week.
Then we could have a C wave up to between 1112.42 and 1150 with
my best guess being the .786 area and resistance around
1127-1130...then wave 3??
Presume for a moment that this wave C of 2 and that the top of
wave 3 of C was at 1112.42. now presume further that this decline
is wave 4. From the 1112.42 top to the 1092.18 low today was all of
wave A of 4..... a B wave would be expected to head for
50-78.6% which in this case is 1102.30-1108.09.
This target range fits nicely with my previous target
range of 1100-1105.20. I'll leave it to you all to study the
various 13, 34 emas, other moving averages, BBs and trend
lines and resistances.
Then wave C of 4 could drop to complete at say 1085ish which is
around 50% of wave 3 or 1079ish which is 61.8%. (of course it
should be noted that today we hit the 38.2% area.)
If we then get a Wave C down into Friday or Monday, that
would coincide with McHugh's Phi turn and the Bradley turn
date.
A final wave 5 up to between 1112.42-1150.45 could finish wave 2
off. Then wave 3 down might begin.
Don't agree? No problem; it is a guess and free after all,
:).
Agree :). Thanks for working out the technical details. To
venture my guess, I'd say the obvious that wave 5 will exceed
1150.45 by a small margin, perhaps up to 1170-1180. I am taking
CSIQ as a model here, with two tops at 32.50 and 33.61.
Now the most profitable task is to guess how far down the
current drop is going to...
very short term guesses into tomorrow
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 03:48 pm
looks like a small 5 wave up of the low today, so watch for a 50-78.6 decline [1095.25-1093.50] and the another rally up to 1100-1105.20 and then another leg down if one is going to happen....
btw, another successful McClelland Osc signal from Friday. That and the pinched BB on the 30 and 60 minute SPX charts sure came through for the large move. Now if there was only a way to predict which direction with 99% accuracy!
so far so good
Posted by perthx on 24th of Feb 2010 at 10:24 am
My "very short term guesses" is playing out as thought....
The SPX broke down yesterday into the 1095.25-1093.50 region bottoming at 1094.01 and has now bounced up to my targeted area at 1103.09....in what looks like 3 waves.I would have thought we correct the push up and run one more time higher but doesn't look like it will now having corrected more than .786 of the run up off the 1094.01 mark.
It can still head higher, but a break of 1094.01 would suggest the next leg down is in progress.
so far so good #2
Posted by perthx on 24th of Feb 2010 at 10:42 am
Well looks like it wants to run up again... target #1 is 1104.58 and target #2 is 1110.19. I'm thinking 1105 will hold it.
looks like a 5 wave so 3-3-5 for this bounce off yesterday's lows...assuming I am correct.
another scenario
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 06:14 pm
Presume that 1112.42 was the top of A of wave 2. Then this could be just the start of a wave B down stretching from 1078.46-1059.03 [50%-78.6%]. The targets suggested earlier still work as the lows today could have been the end of "a" of B down.
Time wise it fits pretty well because from the 1044 lows, the market was up 10 trade days and if it were to drop a total of 5-8 trade days that takes us to Friday- Wednesday next week.
Then we could have a C wave up to between 1112.42 and 1150 with my best guess being the .786 area and resistance around 1127-1130...then wave 3??
very short term
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 04:56 pm
Presume for a moment that this wave C of 2 and that the top of wave 3 of C was at 1112.42. now presume further that this decline is wave 4. From the 1112.42 top to the 1092.18 low today was all of wave A of 4..... a B wave would be expected to head for 50-78.6% which in this case is 1102.30-1108.09.
This target range fits nicely with my previous target range of 1100-1105.20. I'll leave it to you all to study the various 13, 34 emas, other moving averages, BBs and trend lines and resistances.
Then wave C of 4 could drop to complete at say 1085ish which is around 50% of wave 3 or 1079ish which is 61.8%. (of course it should be noted that today we hit the 38.2% area.)
If we then get a Wave C down into Friday or Monday, that would coincide with McHugh's Phi turn and the Bradley turn date.
A final wave 5 up to between 1112.42-1150.45 could finish wave 2 off. Then wave 3 down might begin.
Don't agree? No problem; it is a guess and free after all, :).
Title: agreed Agree :). Thanks for
Posted by junkie on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 05:25 pm
Agree :). Thanks for working out the technical details. To venture my guess, I'd say the obvious that wave 5 will exceed 1150.45 by a small margin, perhaps up to 1170-1180. I am taking CSIQ as a model here, with two tops at 32.50 and 33.61.
Now the most profitable task is to guess how far down the current drop is going to...
perthx - very true about
Posted by steve on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 03:58 pm
perthx - very true about those indicators suggesting a big move. Let me know when you accurately figure out the direction. :)
if could do that...
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Feb 2010 at 04:00 pm
I might have an indicator to sell in the BPT store!!