Hi steve,

today's one of those days I can watch the market intraday (its a Canadian holiday today!) while it trades.  So normally, i never am able to watch my breakouts occur.  So my question is, do you have a general rule of thumb to see what is "taking  volume"?  Since most of the volume often occurs at the market open or close, it's sometimes hard to see how its actually tracking. 

Right now, i see AXAS at about 300k volume (relative to a 60 day avg of about 600k).  Since it's only 10:25AM EST, that would seem like OK volume.  Or would you rather see the full 100% of avg volume be done by morning (and 200% by the close)?

Thanks

jeff

I've noticed in this most recent decline that the brazilian stocks are acting well.  (EWZ)

Here's an interesting long side trade idea.

breakout at 29, target 32. 

Note that its been a bit choppy lately so it may need room.  nice volume too.

It is very steep.  My first thought is simply a move to 45 which is barely a move at all relative to the decline.  But that's a 10% move in itself.

Then 50, then 60 (doubt it would get there) ....  but I'd just take this one step at a time.

yeah, nothing solves high prices (especially in the ag sector) like high prices

No idea.  Now that you mention it, not sure how it impacts my own Taxes in canada!

Here's a trade idea thats uncorrelated to the market.

It looks like a 5 wave downtrend is ending with positive divergence on the MACD, and the most recent 5th wave down is on declining volume.  A tiny resistance level is forming at 40, which should serve as a breakout point that coincides with a break of the downtrend.  also watch for the stochastics to turn up.

Support at 23.  First target to 21, tho it measures to 20.  Stop around 24.5

Coffee anyone?  I like this one because its not likely to be correlated with the rest of the market.  Illiquid though.

I'm not an EW guy at all, but after listening to Steve and Matt so many times, it kinda makes sense.

BBY looks like its in a 5 wave down move, and now about to enter the 5th wave.  But for me personally, I'm looking at the bear flag formed by the 4th (corrective) wave.  If the magnitude of wave 1 equals wave 5, could get a good move here.

This old General might be too obvious of a trade.  But maybe that's a good thing?

I think Ben was talking the rates down which is causing some swings in the market/bonds today.  But I did get stopped out of TBT, though, I still trade it with a long bias.  (I go long and cash, but not short)

this has a really tight range in the past few weeks.

I kinda agree.  I have some longs and short, but overall, market neutral.  I just dont think I have any edge gaming monday mornings.

It's probably not a bad idea to take some profits today.  I wonder if options expiration is holding up the market into the close despite the Fed move.  And the reality is (on the 60 min chart that I trade) is that it is right up at resistance from the 1105 area.  I know it was broken, but it doesnt have to be perfect.  Now we are also headed up close to the 1116 area, which is another resistance level.  The risk rewards just dont seem to favor being excessively long right now.  I just don't see the 4 SPX points worth it.  And we are all waiting for that sell signal right now...

I'd rather see the short term indicators reset (the 5 and 15) first, if we make another push up into resistance. 

RMJ

just think of TBT as trading the 20 year gov yield.  Keeps the brain from going crazy.

I actually picked up some of this yesterday when it retested the price at the break of the downtrend.  I actually didnt notice this large triangle you drew here, and instead I have a uptrending channel.

But actually, im using the $tnx more for a trigger than the TBT itself.