Matt - just heard that in the COT report, gold specs cut
positions to long 49k; does that mean commls are net short 49k, or
do they have a third category small specs? And if the comml
net short is indeed that low, is that a possible indicator of where
we are in the decline?
ARM is a fabless semiconductor company. It creates chip
designs and licenses them, it generally does not sell chips.
It also sells development tools for them. Samsung
produces its own processors, as well as those for apple, but they
are also based on Arm cores. For example, the popular Galaxy
S3 has an Exynos 4 Quad 4412 , which is based on the ARM Cortex-A9
MPcore.
At $1500/troy ounce, 1 metric ton of gold is worth $48.225
million.
Cyprus was talking about selling approx $500m worth of
"excess reserves" of gold. That is a bit over 10 t.
That could make sense, as Cyprus has approx 14 t of
gold reserves.
This was a 400 t sell order according to Mr. Grubb.
A tidbit of information some people here might find
interesting:
Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment of the World Gold
Council made a short appearance on bberg tv at about 5:30
eastern.
He said that this was caused by a single 400 t sell order placed
in NY on Friday.
It was not caused by the economic data out of China, because
that came after the selling started.
Further, he said that gold is still selling at premiums in
Shanghai and India.
(at that point he was cut off as they went to a commercial)
_______________
400t? Which entity has that much - or can place an order
that large?
To put it into context, that is 2/3 of the size of the
national reserves of the Netherlands, one of the top dozen or so
gold-holding countries.
It was not an ETF, as Bberg reported today: "Holdings in all
ETFs compiled by Bloomberg dropped 1 percent to 2,382.43 tons
yesterday, the biggest loss since Feb. 21."
Kalinm, maybe we don't have to go as far as a conspiracy theory
for the reason.
Consider these three paragraphs and especially the last sentence
from the WSJ today:
Some investors cited the situation surrounding Cyprus as another
reason behind gold's fall. A draft document addressing how Cyprus
will fund its bailout proposed that the country's central bank sell
$522 million of its gold reserves.
Central banks have supported the gold market in the past
several years as net buyers of the metal. Traders and analysts say
the talk about Cyprus potentially having to sell its gold has
reawakened fears that other central banks could follow suit.
The news about Cyprus "gets people to wonder: Will there be
central-bank liquidation of gold when other countries get into
trouble?" said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with
Archer Financial Services in Chicago. "Selling gold might be the
new caveat for any future [bailout] deals."
With respect to China, if they saw imminent trouble, they
would buy more than they already are, not sell. It is illegal
for producers in China [and in Russia, by the way] to export it.
They must sell to the central bank, albeit at market prices.
That is an indication of how badly they want to build
reserves.
At the risk of boring the other members, the article is correct
in that there are two major distinct but related issues: (1) debt
and I would put (2) as productivity. By borrowing,
consumption temporarily exceeded production after joining the euro
zone. For example, 1998-2008, cumulative productivity growth
in germany was 22%, france 18%, italy 3%. Which means that
eventually all the factories move north, or southerners have to
accept lower wages. But nominal wages are downward resistant.
The current discussion is about debt. Suppose we could
solve that - then without similar productivity rates of growth, in
order to remain in the same currency, wages would have to
continually fall in southern europe. I don't think that
is sustainable.
Where I disagree is that the author says the that only way to
solve the productivity disparity is via devaluation.
Alternatives: improve your productivity, or lower your
standard of living to match your output! Estonia had a major
debt crunch a few years ago from leveraging up as well, but they
cut wages and subsequently joined the euro. I'll bet that
they will manage to stay inside it, without a devaluation.
Ireland took some tough measures as well, and they are
growing again, and their spreads have come down. It is maybe
too early to definitively say they will make it, but there is a
clear difference in discipline with Greece who is still expected, a
couple of years into their crisis, to be running a 9% budget
deficit!
Early in the crisis germans were talking about helping southern
europeans to make their economies more efficient. That seems
unlikely to work: immediately in greece people were
protesting with swastikas on EU flags and bloggers were writing
about the fourth reich.
So my end conclusion is the same as in the article: the two are
not destined to stay in the same currency zone.
Well, the market was rallying as if the EFSF 2 was a done deal.
Let's see:
Wed the 28th: Finnish govt votes. Yes, Finland, the
country demanding collateral. Where the second largest party
in parliament is the "True Finns", opposed to any bailouts.
Thursday the 29th: Germany votes. Approval not a foregone
conclusion I am reading.
Friday the 30th: Austria votes. Unlikely to vote against
if Germany approves.
Slovakia on Oct 11. Yes, Slovakia. The junior
partner of the ruling coalition government has not yet agreed to
vote in favour. Still, the pressure will be enormous if all
other countries have approved it by then.
8 of the 17 countries have thus far approved EFSF 2. The
approval has to be unanimous.
Slovenia's govt fell recently, so I don't know how they will
even vote on it. Slovenia is one of the countries requiring
collateral.
Countries such as Slovakia and Slovakia are basically opposed
because they were told to get their finances in order to join the
EU and the euro zone, and they went through tough cuts to get
there. So they have little sympathy for Greece.
Volume is supportive - it fell while forming the right shoulder,
and is now rising again. There has been divergence on the
MACD for a couple of months. The stock rose yesterday in
a falling market.
Measures up to about 11.
caution: this is a Chinese reverse takeover, which has been
accused twice of false accounting
GSS (GSC.TO for the Canucks out there) looks to be breaking out
of an 8 month downtrend. A bit of divergence, rising gold
price and brokerage upgrade y'day appear to be the proximate
causes. This is an operationally leveraged high cost
($1100/oz) producer that has not run far yet, with gold approaching
favourable seasonality.
Gold vending machines have been in some German airports for
about 2 years. At their introduction, it was laughingly
heralded as a contrarian indicator.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
3:30
ECB Draghi speaking this afternoon not sure of exact time.
Posted by johan on 23rd of May 2013 at 02:17 pm
3:30
Matt - just heard that
Posted by johan on 10th of May 2013 at 03:41 pm
Matt - just heard that in the COT report, gold specs cut positions to long 49k; does that mean commls are net short 49k, or do they have a third category small specs? And if the comml net short is indeed that low, is that a possible indicator of where we are in the decline?
associated press says twitter account
Hearing Rumor of Bombing at White House, Markets Selling Off
Posted by johan on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 01:17 pm
associated press says twitter account was hacked, false message about explosion in white house
ARMH
ARMH is a supplier for Apple
Posted by johan on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 10:48 am
ARM is a fabless semiconductor company. It creates chip designs and licenses them, it generally does not sell chips. It also sells development tools for them. Samsung produces its own processors, as well as those for apple, but they are also based on Arm cores. For example, the popular Galaxy S3 has an Exynos 4 Quad 4412 , which is based on the ARM Cortex-A9 MPcore.
At $1500/troy ounce, 1 metric
WGC comment
Posted by johan on 16th of Apr 2013 at 06:56 am
At $1500/troy ounce, 1 metric ton of gold is worth $48.225 million.
Cyprus was talking about selling approx $500m worth of "excess reserves" of gold. That is a bit over 10 t. That could make sense, as Cyprus has approx 14 t of gold reserves.
This was a 400 t sell order according to Mr. Grubb.
WGC comment
Posted by johan on 16th of Apr 2013 at 06:25 am
A tidbit of information some people here might find interesting:
Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment of the World Gold Council made a short appearance on bberg tv at about 5:30 eastern.
He said that this was caused by a single 400 t sell order placed in NY on Friday.
It was not caused by the economic data out of China, because that came after the selling started.
Further, he said that gold is still selling at premiums in Shanghai and India.
(at that point he was cut off as they went to a commercial)
_______________
400t? Which entity has that much - or can place an order that large?
To put it into context, that is 2/3 of the size of the national reserves of the Netherlands, one of the top dozen or so gold-holding countries.
It was not an ETF, as Bberg reported today: "Holdings in all ETFs compiled by Bloomberg dropped 1 percent to 2,382.43 tons yesterday, the biggest loss since Feb. 21."
1% of that figure is 24 t.
Thanks. Not even as high as
Gold VIX?
Posted by johan on 16th of Apr 2013 at 04:24 am
Thanks.
Not even as high as 2011 yet - that is a surprise.
Much less fear now than 2008, but that was of course a meltdown in more markets, so the general level of panic was higher at that time.
Does your [Gold] vix bollinger band indicator apply?
Gold VIX?
Posted by johan on 15th of Apr 2013 at 06:40 pm
Matt/Steve - do you have an historical chart or context for the CBOE Gold VIX index as referenced in this article that could shed some light?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/04/15/gold-vix-bugs-turn-fearful/
Yes, that's quite a chart.
Gold bull market
Posted by johan on 12th of Apr 2013 at 05:45 pm
Yes, that's quite a chart. In particular, if it plays out it will yield an excellent buying opportunity later in the year!
Kalinm, maybe we don't have
Gold bull market
Posted by johan on 12th of Apr 2013 at 05:35 pm
Kalinm, maybe we don't have to go as far as a conspiracy theory for the reason.
Consider these three paragraphs and especially the last sentence from the WSJ today:
Some investors cited the situation surrounding Cyprus as another reason behind gold's fall. A draft document addressing how Cyprus will fund its bailout proposed that the country's central bank sell $522 million of its gold reserves.
Central banks have supported the gold market in the past several years as net buyers of the metal. Traders and analysts say the talk about Cyprus potentially having to sell its gold has reawakened fears that other central banks could follow suit.
The news about Cyprus "gets people to wonder: Will there be central-bank liquidation of gold when other countries get into trouble?" said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Archer Financial Services in Chicago. "Selling gold might be the new caveat for any future [bailout] deals."
Now consider that Italy has what, 2500 tonnes?
Or, how about this opinion on Reuters yesterday:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/11/us-cyprus-bailout-gold-idUSBRE93917M20130411
With respect to China, if they saw imminent trouble, they would buy more than they already are, not sell. It is illegal for producers in China [and in Russia, by the way] to export it. They must sell to the central bank, albeit at market prices. That is an indication of how badly they want to build reserves.
9 MONTHS! I thought that
Pictures Of Olivia
Posted by johan on 2nd of Feb 2012 at 05:45 pm
9 MONTHS! I thought that she was born like yesterday! How did that happen??
Oh, and by the way, what are her thoughts on natural gas???
Title: click to expand At the
Why Europe Is Doomed: The Euro Crucifix
Posted by johan on 21st of Oct 2011 at 10:23 am
At the risk of boring the other members, the article is correct in that there are two major distinct but related issues: (1) debt and I would put (2) as productivity. By borrowing, consumption temporarily exceeded production after joining the euro zone. For example, 1998-2008, cumulative productivity growth in germany was 22%, france 18%, italy 3%. Which means that eventually all the factories move north, or southerners have to accept lower wages. But nominal wages are downward resistant.
The current discussion is about debt. Suppose we could solve that - then without similar productivity rates of growth, in order to remain in the same currency, wages would have to continually fall in southern europe. I don't think that is sustainable.
Where I disagree is that the author says the that only way to solve the productivity disparity is via devaluation. Alternatives: improve your productivity, or lower your standard of living to match your output! Estonia had a major debt crunch a few years ago from leveraging up as well, but they cut wages and subsequently joined the euro. I'll bet that they will manage to stay inside it, without a devaluation. Ireland took some tough measures as well, and they are growing again, and their spreads have come down. It is maybe too early to definitively say they will make it, but there is a clear difference in discipline with Greece who is still expected, a couple of years into their crisis, to be running a 9% budget deficit!
Early in the crisis germans were talking about helping southern europeans to make their economies more efficient. That seems unlikely to work: immediately in greece people were protesting with swastikas on EU flags and bloggers were writing about the fourth reich.
So my end conclusion is the same as in the article: the two are not destined to stay in the same currency zone.
Title: click to expand Well, the
Did Europe fart
Posted by johan on 27th of Sep 2011 at 04:29 pm
Well, the market was rallying as if the EFSF 2 was a done deal. Let's see:
Wed the 28th: Finnish govt votes. Yes, Finland, the country demanding collateral. Where the second largest party in parliament is the "True Finns", opposed to any bailouts.
Thursday the 29th: Germany votes. Approval not a foregone conclusion I am reading.
Friday the 30th: Austria votes. Unlikely to vote against if Germany approves.
Slovakia on Oct 11. Yes, Slovakia. The junior partner of the ruling coalition government has not yet agreed to vote in favour. Still, the pressure will be enormous if all other countries have approved it by then.
8 of the 17 countries have thus far approved EFSF 2. The approval has to be unanimous.
Slovenia's govt fell recently, so I don't know how they will even vote on it. Slovenia is one of the countries requiring collateral.
Countries such as Slovakia and Slovakia are basically opposed because they were told to get their finances in order to join the EU and the euro zone, and they went through tough cuts to get there. So they have little sympathy for Greece.
HOGS forming inverse H&S?
Posted by johan on 20th of Sep 2011 at 09:29 am
Is HOGS daily forming an inverse H&S?
Volume is supportive - it fell while forming the right shoulder, and is now rising again. There has been divergence on the MACD for a couple of months. The stock rose yesterday in a falling market.
Measures up to about 11.
caution: this is a Chinese reverse takeover, which has been accused twice of false accounting
according to http://www.sprottphysicalgoldtrust.com/Net-Asset-Value/default.aspx the NAV after yesterday's
PHYS
Posted by johan on 15th of Jul 2011 at 10:54 am
according to
http://www.sprottphysicalgoldtrust.com/Net-Asset-Value/default.aspx
the NAV after yesterday's close was $13.42
and the intraday indicative NAV today was the same
so it is a smaller premium than it often trades at, but still a premium
GSS breaking downtrend
Posted by johan on 13th of Jul 2011 at 11:40 am
GSS (GSC.TO for the Canucks out there) looks to be breaking out of an 8 month downtrend. A bit of divergence, rising gold price and brokerage upgrade y'day appear to be the proximate causes. This is an operationally leveraged high cost ($1100/oz) producer that has not run far yet, with gold approaching favourable seasonality.
nice symmetrical triangle forming on
Posted by johan on 11th of Apr 2011 at 10:23 am
nice symmetrical triangle forming on AZK daily
which way will it go?
Gold vending machines have been
Gold sentiment.....
Posted by johan on 6th of Oct 2010 at 10:11 am
Gold vending machines have been in some German airports for about 2 years. At their introduction, it was laughingly heralded as a contrarian indicator.
TER at breakpoint?
Posted by johan on 17th of Sep 2010 at 10:45 am
TER appears to be at the upper end of a well-defined falling wedge.
Any thoughts - up and out or back down with a couple of bucks room to fall?