MCP broke overbought levels on 144 Stochastics around 10 am
after having hovered above 70 for the past 9 trading days. That was
a nice indicator to go short.
I have followed MCP for the past 9 months. Fundamentally in the
short term, it is still a hot one to follow but I see for the
longer term that MCP will face tougher competition. Due to the
export restrictions from China, many countries are now in the
process of starting up new mines or re-opening mines shut down in
the past. Thereby the supply of rare earth minerals to the world
market will increase, thereby causing prices to decrease.
Back tested results of a system is one thing, to run it in
real-time and get the same results is another. There has not been
much buzz or updates about the mechanical systems from BPT for a
long time.
Low at 1204.33 on the last 30 min bar. Close enough for
Government. I suppose we need to see a new lower high before we run
after more shorts. (Except for those guys going to FLA
)
This peak might be another of those buy on the rumors (QE2) and
sell on the fact. Anyone who can answer why the dollar is going up
while the Fed is still printing a whole lot more of 'em?
ERY peaked on 60.61 on Aug 26. That was followed by a drop down
to 34.38 on Oct 25. It is now beginning to look as if the tide is
turning again, meaning that one may consider going long in ERY or
short ERX.
After purchasing the mechanical systems around the same time as
samspiro, I quickly came to the same conclusions. What I have done
instead since then was to develop a few swing trade systems using
Stochastics on 5 min and daily charts. Some of the ETFs (ERY, ERX,
TNA, TZA) works well using daily charts STO(21 periods) with a
small degree of variation on the overbought and oversold levels. I
am using that while waiting for volatility to heat up. Some other
ETFs like SSO, SDS, QLD and ECD works also well on the 5 min charts
but there I am only playing them in one direction, following the
general trend of the market.
I am also convinced that once the VIX is going up, the BPT
systems will be a great asset to have as a trader. I wish that I
had owned these during the Autumn of 2008. However that kind of
period will return one day, we can all be sure about that.
Then coming back to what Matt and Steve have posted many times
about being unbiased to the market actions. Using mechanical
systems have in some weird way helped me to reach that mental state
of mind. It really helps to take out a lot of emotions.
Well it is evening here in Beijing and it is time for the 3rd
beer. Happy trading!
Maybe too many have been focused on Gold lately? Now the press
needs to find something new to write about. WSJ pointed out
yesterday that this is a big concern for Japan who as always is
depending on imports, that reward another 10% to the previous (at
least 100%).
I'll continue following this with a stop-loss in place.
Up 11% today, most likely due to the article in WSJ today which
has made more people aware of the situation we are getting in to.
If anyone has missed it, China has put restrictions on exports of
Rare Earth Minerals and if I recall right from WSJ, China controls
97% of the world's rare earth resources. Outside China there is an
Australian company also producing this (name?) and an American
company Molycorp (MCP). Since the restrictions were put in the
place MCP has more than doubled the stock price. Apparently today,
some felt that there is still room for further increase. Be warned
though that this bubble can burst quickly if China decides to
change the policy. Until then I ride along a few more days.
Looks like a breakout will happen next Monday. Up or down? Time
will tell but looking at how the earnings are beginning to evolve,
I have hunch it'll be to the up side. Let's see.
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2016 may also not be a
Anybody remember what the January barometer implied for 2015? Answer: Since ...
Posted by etcbari on 8th of Dec 2015 at 06:37 pm
2016 may also not be a good year, 8 years since 2008 and before then, another 8 years back we had the crash in 2000. Time will tell...
Thanks, great, I hadn't paid
GDX Renko chart
Posted by etcbari on 19th of May 2015 at 01:38 am
Thanks, great, I hadn't paid attention to that it didn't impact the 1x.
Is there an inverse ETF to the GDX?
Great mech system Matt. Isn't GDX
GDX Renko chart
Posted by etcbari on 18th of May 2015 at 09:49 pm
Great mech system Matt.
Isn't GDX just another ETF? It has been mentioned many times on BPT that ETFs aren't good to hold for longer periods.
Is there a better instrument to trade gold miners that doesn't degrade over time?
Is it only I that
Free ATR Trailing Stop Indicator and Video
Posted by etcbari on 29th of Aug 2011 at 09:40 am
Is it only I that can not download those ELD and TSW files? That dropbox link just returns an error page for me.
Thanks for the video Matt!
MCP broke overbought levels on
MCP
Posted by etcbari on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 10:18 pm
MCP broke overbought levels on 144 Stochastics around 10 am after having hovered above 70 for the past 9 trading days. That was a nice indicator to go short.
I have followed MCP for the past 9 months. Fundamentally in the short term, it is still a hot one to follow but I see for the longer term that MCP will face tougher competition. Due to the export restrictions from China, many countries are now in the process of starting up new mines or re-opening mines shut down in the past. Thereby the supply of rare earth minerals to the world market will increase, thereby causing prices to decrease.
87% profitable over the past
$VIX vs. TVIX Appling Connor Trading system to both
Posted by etcbari on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 09:48 am
87% profitable over the past 4 years for long trades only.
Back tested results of a
Profession SPY Swing Trade System comments
Posted by etcbari on 25th of Apr 2011 at 11:39 am
Back tested results of a system is one thing, to run it in real-time and get the same results is another. There has not been much buzz or updates about the mechanical systems from BPT for a long time.
Ditch, what target would you
UYM bo
Posted by etcbari on 7th of Feb 2011 at 10:53 am
Ditch, what target would you suggest for UYM after the BO?
RCII
Posted by etcbari on 4th of Jan 2011 at 10:08 am
Possible short idea, about to lose support at 32, plus broken uptrend line since a few days back.
There was a Bearish Gartley
Bearish Gartley pattern on ERX 5 min
Posted by etcbari on 10th of Dec 2010 at 09:29 am
There was a Bearish Gartley on the 5 min S&P index as well yesterday. D happened just before the close.
Bearish Gartley pattern on ERX 5 min
Posted by etcbari on 9th of Dec 2010 at 08:25 pm
Title: short silver Interesting thought but
short silver
Posted by etcbari on 10th of Nov 2010 at 04:31 pm
Interesting thought but I can't find it either. The closest I get is the 2x ZSL. Here is a placewith more Silver ETFs.
Low at 1204.33 on the
SPX Support Levels
Posted by etcbari on 10th of Nov 2010 at 11:08 am
Low at 1204.33 on the last 30 min bar. Close enough for Government. I suppose we need to see a new lower high before we run after more shorts. (Except for those guys going to FLA )
This peak might be another
SPX
Posted by etcbari on 10th of Nov 2010 at 09:39 am
This peak might be another of those buy on the rumors (QE2) and sell on the fact. Anyone who can answer why the dollar is going up while the Fed is still printing a whole lot more of 'em?
What was the logic to
USD 233 min chart
Posted by etcbari on 1st of Nov 2010 at 10:12 am
What was the logic to select 233 minute bars and not for instance 240? Is this another of your hidden ace up your sleeves?
ERY
Posted by etcbari on 29th of Oct 2010 at 10:00 am
ERY peaked on 60.61 on Aug 26. That was followed by a drop down to 34.38 on Oct 25. It is now beginning to look as if the tide is turning again, meaning that one may consider going long in ERY or short ERX.
Mechanical Systems
Mechanichal systems
Posted by etcbari on 22nd of Oct 2010 at 07:36 am
After purchasing the mechanical systems around the same time as samspiro, I quickly came to the same conclusions. What I have done instead since then was to develop a few swing trade systems using Stochastics on 5 min and daily charts. Some of the ETFs (ERY, ERX, TNA, TZA) works well using daily charts STO(21 periods) with a small degree of variation on the overbought and oversold levels. I am using that while waiting for volatility to heat up. Some other ETFs like SSO, SDS, QLD and ECD works also well on the 5 min charts but there I am only playing them in one direction, following the general trend of the market.
I am also convinced that once the VIX is going up, the BPT systems will be a great asset to have as a trader. I wish that I had owned these during the Autumn of 2008. However that kind of period will return one day, we can all be sure about that.
Then coming back to what Matt and Steve have posted many times about being unbiased to the market actions. Using mechanical systems have in some weird way helped me to reach that mental state of mind. It really helps to take out a lot of emotions.
Well it is evening here in Beijing and it is time for the 3rd beer. Happy trading!
Maybe too many have been
MCP
Posted by etcbari on 18th of Oct 2010 at 11:52 pm
Maybe too many have been focused on Gold lately? Now the press needs to find something new to write about. WSJ pointed out yesterday that this is a big concern for Japan who as always is depending on imports, that reward another 10% to the previous (at least 100%).
I'll continue following this with a stop-loss in place.
MCP
Posted by etcbari on 18th of Oct 2010 at 01:14 pm
Up 11% today, most likely due to the article in WSJ today which has made more people aware of the situation we are getting in to. If anyone has missed it, China has put restrictions on exports of Rare Earth Minerals and if I recall right from WSJ, China controls 97% of the world's rare earth resources. Outside China there is an Australian company also producing this (name?) and an American company Molycorp (MCP). Since the restrictions were put in the place MCP has more than doubled the stock price. Apparently today, some felt that there is still room for further increase. Be warned though that this bubble can burst quickly if China decides to change the policy. Until then I ride along a few more days.
Looks like a breakout will
Of course bounced off it again, the uptrend line on ...
Posted by etcbari on 15th of Oct 2010 at 12:12 pm
Looks like a breakout will happen next Monday. Up or down? Time will tell but looking at how the earnings are beginning to evolve, I have hunch it'll be to the up side. Let's see.