Technical Analysis of the markets and trading systems Week of March 24 - 29th, 2024

Table of Contents:

1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems major update soon
2. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames) and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc)
3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX, NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield
4. Sectors Overview
5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto, Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks 
6. Trade Ideas

Market Comments:  The 'bulls' continue to have the Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last week we pointed out very obvious coil triangle patterns on the S&P 500 and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside, which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones +2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%.  

Watch: US Dollar, 10-year, and NVDA

Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below 5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure. The 20-day MA is your important support.

- The largest pullback during this entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry. 
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
- Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29 on Friday despite the market being almost at all time highs

- The US Dollar had a strong week gaining +1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be getting extended here

Economic News This week:
New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday

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The KISS systems continue to kick ass! The nice thing about the KISS systems is that they allow us to follow the trend, but with a protective stop, sort of like life insurance for your portfolio.

The KISS Systems for the indexes and many large cap stocks have been long since October just off the lows and are doing well. The KISS systems did their job avoiding a lot of the correction and going back long 2 to 3 days off the lows, thus capturing this rally with protection.   KISS STS Tables for Indexes, ETF's, Stocks

Stock Earnings Calendar:

Click here for a list of Stocks that are reporting Earnings

**Generally we never hold a position into earnings since the risk/reward is too great