Table of Contents:

1. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices 

2. Review of Select Sectors

3. Glance at Currencies and Commodities

4. Precious Metals and GDX

5. Trade Ideas (are you kidding?)

The market was bludgeoned on Tuesday, SPX lost 90 points or 3.25%, the Dow Jones lost 800 points or 3.1%, the Nasdaq lost 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 Small Caps lost 4.4%!  

Despite some bullish calls from various market commentators recently, Steve and I have always viewed the latest market rally as a corrective bounce in a longer term downtrend.  If you listened to my weekend newsletter I stated that a gap up on Monday in response to the G20 Tariff pause would be a good opportunity to sell and lighten up on long positions.  On Monday morning just after the opening bell I sent out an alert on the SPY system re-iterating that the big gap up on Monday morning would be a good opportunity to trim/lighten up on SPY and other longs.  Boy has that played out especially with today's huge sell off.  Also on the weekend I said to watch the VIX indicator, I said that the lower Bollinger Bands would likely act as support and that's exactly what happened, the VIX tagged the lower Bollinger Bands yesterday morning and that was the low. All year long each time the VIX has tagged the lower Bollinger Band it has rallied - this is something we also discussed early this year.  See VIX Chart

Today of course the market was scared by the move in bond markets, the yield curve (10 Year / 2 Year) fell once again and is getting close to par.  It won't take much for it to go negative now.  Remember I discussed the Yield Curve on the weekend and in Monday's newsletter.  Early this morning Banks/Financials and Transports were extra weak in response to the bond market as the flattening yield curve hurts their profits.  

One chart that someone pointed out to me earlier today was the FLOT ETF, which is Investment Grade Floating Rate Bonds.  HERE's a Chart, as you will see below there was a HUGE move in this instrument over the last couple days, even yesterday, this was a pre warning for the market of the issues underneath the surface in the credit markets.  

As far as the market, you know our bigger picture is one of caution/bear market.  On the weekend for the short term I discuss various scenarios to monitor from the ABC, to a triangle, etc, corrective patterns can take many forms. 

Week of December 03 - December 07

Date	ET	Release	For	Actual	Briefing.com Forecast	Briefing.com Consensus	Prior	Revised From
Dec 03	10:00	ISM Index	Nov	59.3	56.8	57.2	57.7
Dec 03	10:00	Construction Spending	Oct	-0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%	0.0%
Dec 03	14:00	Auto Sales	Nov		NA	NA	4.27M
Dec 03	14:00	Truck Sales	Nov		NA	NA	9.31M
Dec 05	07:00	MBA Mortgage Applications Index	12/01		NA	NA	5.5%
Dec 05	14:00	Beige Book	Nov		NA	NA	NA
Dec 06	08:15	ADP Employment Change	Nov		180K	192K	227K
Dec 06	08:30	Productivity-Rev.	Q3		2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Dec 06	08:30	Trade Balance	Oct		-$55.1B	-$54.7B	-$54.0B
Dec 06	08:30	Unit Labor Costs - Rev.	Q3		1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Dec 06	08:30	Initial Claims	12/01		230K	225K	234K
Dec 06	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/24		NA	NA	1710K
Dec 06	10:00	Factory Orders	Oct		-1.8%	-2.0%	0.7%
Dec 06	10:00	ISM Services	Nov		59.3	59.0	60.3
Dec 06	11:00	Crude Inventories	12/01		NA	NA	+3.6M
Dec 07	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Nov		180K	189K	250K
Dec 07	08:30	Nonfarm Private Payrolls	Nov		175K	185K	246K
Dec 07	08:30	Avg. Hourly Earnings	Nov		0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Dec 07	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Nov		3.7%	3.7%	3.7%
Dec 07	08:30	Average Workweek	Nov		34.5	34.5	34.5
Dec 07	10:00	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - prelim	Dec		97.0	96.8	97.5
Dec 07	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Oct		0.7%	0.7%	0.4%
Dec 07	10:30	Natural Gas Inventories	12/01		NA	NA	-59 bcf
Dec 07	15:00	Consumer Credit	Oct		$14.0B	$16.5B	$11.0B

Actual refers to the actual figures after their release.

Briefing.com Forecast refers to Briefing.com's forecast.

Briefing.com Consensus represents the market consensus estimate for each indicator.

Prior represents the last actual for each indicator. In cases where the release is a revision to an earlier estimate, as is possible with GDP, productivity, and U of Michigan sentiment, the last actual refers to the preliminary estimate for the same period. After a report is released, the Prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.

The Revised From column lists the prior number as it was originally reported, ie before revision.

Not included: Mitsubishi and Redbook chain store indexes are released every Tuesday morning. M2 is released every Thursday at 16:30 ET.

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