Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of May 2024 at 01:22 pm
The most frustrating thing to me about these money printing
fueled rallies is that they are characterized by NOT letting you
get in...they make you chase. The Janet rally that started after
the QRA in late October blew the 21 week EMA touch record out of
the water...there was nothing like it ever before in history (by
that measure). This feel similar...and again on the heels of a QRA
where issuance target was greatly exceeded. The idea that you can
wait for a reasonable entry doesn't work that well when the
underlying currency is being diluted so quickly.
Posted by mastermind on 15th of May 2024 at 02:42 pm
If you can't find pullbacks to buy, buy breakouts instead. There
have been plenty of those lately. Some examples - CAKE (Monday),
ERJ (yesterday), CLS (today). And some strong stocks that I have
been swinging in and out around my core position on pullbacks are
AEYE and ALAR. Want a good pullback buy today? How about SIMO?
There are plenty of opportunities out there in a bull
market.
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of May 2024 at 02:49 pm
I'm not a breakout trader (the odds typically favor the fade). I
don't like the R structure most of the time....although it
definitely works for some people. Also, I dabble around the edges,
but medium term moves in the large indexes is my primary game. To
each his own. My style is a little problematic in this
environment...it will change eventually (I think?). For example,
after a trigger in the daily STS systems my trading plan is to look
for an entry on the 1hr time frame (especially if it's a breakout
trade...I don't like playing those and would rather enter on first
pullback). That's all good unless there's not an objective pullback
on the 1 hour times frame. Historically, I should just be patient
and not change a strategy that is proven over time, but it does
"feel different" sometimes and leads to self doubt. Part of the
game.
In this currency dilution environment, I think I definitely
need to accept that sideways in time might be the new pullback.
The're just too much capital chasing too few assets and people are
panicking in at any sign of weakness.
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The most frustrating thing to
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of May 2024 at 01:22 pm
The most frustrating thing to me about these money printing fueled rallies is that they are characterized by NOT letting you get in...they make you chase. The Janet rally that started after the QRA in late October blew the 21 week EMA touch record out of the water...there was nothing like it ever before in history (by that measure). This feel similar...and again on the heels of a QRA where issuance target was greatly exceeded. The idea that you can wait for a reasonable entry doesn't work that well when the underlying currency is being diluted so quickly.
People are like, what do
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of May 2024 at 01:30 pm
People are like, what do you mean? That was a great entry opportunity just now on SPX (on the 1 min time frame)
If you can't find pullbacks
Posted by mastermind on 15th of May 2024 at 02:42 pm
If you can't find pullbacks to buy, buy breakouts instead. There have been plenty of those lately. Some examples - CAKE (Monday), ERJ (yesterday), CLS (today). And some strong stocks that I have been swinging in and out around my core position on pullbacks are AEYE and ALAR. Want a good pullback buy today? How about SIMO? There are plenty of opportunities out there in a bull market.
I'm not a breakout trader
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of May 2024 at 02:49 pm
I'm not a breakout trader (the odds typically favor the fade). I don't like the R structure most of the time....although it definitely works for some people. Also, I dabble around the edges, but medium term moves in the large indexes is my primary game. To each his own. My style is a little problematic in this environment...it will change eventually (I think?). For example, after a trigger in the daily STS systems my trading plan is to look for an entry on the 1hr time frame (especially if it's a breakout trade...I don't like playing those and would rather enter on first pullback). That's all good unless there's not an objective pullback on the 1 hour times frame. Historically, I should just be patient and not change a strategy that is proven over time, but it does "feel different" sometimes and leads to self doubt. Part of the game.
In this currency dilution environment, I think I definitely need to accept that sideways in time might be the new pullback. The're just too much capital chasing too few assets and people are panicking in at any sign of weakness.